It doesn't count, but...

[Wally Mo Pena]

I know it doesn't matter how far you hit them, but at the same time, Neyer had this to say about the 2005 season:

• Alex Rodriguez hit the longest home run (485 feet) in the American League last season, but Travis Hafner owns the next three spots on the list: 477, 474, and 471. And believe it or not, the two longest home runs in the major leagues last season -- 492 feet and 490 feet -- were both hit (and I mean hit) by Wily Mo Pena.

Man, if Wily can figure out what he's doing at the plate, he'll be unstopable.

[missionhockey21]

Therein lies the danger with a possible Wily Mo deal. Sure right now he has holes in several aspects of his games but given his age and the still very possible chance that the potential turns into talent, the Reds could be either very thankful or regretful that they didnt or did deal him. Even though I have an admited bias for Wily Mo, I still don't believe the return in a trade for him would be great enough to risk the kind of player he could one day become (which could happen given the strides he has made.)

[CincyRedsFan30]

I just don't see Pena taking that next step like Dunn did.

[missionhockey21]

Pena will never be at the level Dunn is. Dunn's eye at the plate is really almost too good (as evident when he K's looking on a pitch that was obviously a ball.) My hope for Pena is to develop an average eye at the plate with a solid average and power like crazy. I do think that Pena could reach nearly the same amount of XBH as Dunn would with a similar amount of AB's one day.

[Wally Mo Pena]

i disagree that pena will never be at the level dunn is at (now or in the future). He may never have the walks that Dunn does, but he can certainly put up a .900 OPS, and slugging is the more important aspect of OPS anyway, and if he can figure out plate discipline a little, he'll put up a .600+ OPS without noticing.

[CincyRedsFan30]

The most important part of OPS is the OPS itself. The overall sum of all the parts is most important.

I just don't see him consistently attaining the OPS that Dunn does.

[missionhockey21]

I don't see WMP slugging enough to make up for the difference of OBP that he and Dunn have. We also have to remember that Dunn still can improve and develop. I am not trying to discredit WMP but rather show even though I truly believe he has the potential to be in the top 10 in OPS in the NL one day, I think Dunn could become a pretty consisent top 3 or 4.

[redsrbetter]

I remember when Pena hit one of those 490 shots. That thing was a monster out in left center field. Remember that Dunn had the longest HR ever hit last season too. We have major power in our lineup without a doubt. And to think, Stratton is supposed to be even more powerful! nevermind him though, we have two stars in the making that may be seperated very soon. We may not have either Dunn or Pena next season so I am going to enjoy this while it is mine. I am a Reds fan and I can say that my favorite team holds the two most powerful bats in the majors leagues.

Way to go to our young sluggers!

As far as Mo vs. Dunn goes, I think we are all on the same page here. Dunn is the man right now and is going to get better. Pena has been showing improvement and could one day put up Dunn type numbers. Their OPS could look similar due to dunn's ability to take a walk and Pena's all out mashing approach that gets him the slugging pct. needed. The bottom line is, Pena has been improving and he has to continue in this manner to become this player that we want to see. Maybe he can get a few tips from Dunn on how to be more patient at the plate and how to see the ball better. But I think Dunn is more of a Kearns fan and would rather spend his time helping his best bud. Especially when there is a sort of competition for a job going on. So, maybe Pena could borrow those red lensed sun glasses Griffey was experimenting with last season. They were supposed to help him see the threads on the baseballl to better pick up the spin on a breaking pitch. sounds like the perfect Pena tool to me. Anyhow, we want improvement again from him and we will likely see it whether it be in a Reds uniform or not.

[redsfan28]

I just don't see Pena taking that next step like Dunn did.

What "next step" has Dunn taken? Sure, he hits 35 to 40 homers, but he also strikes out 200 times per season. His only saving grace is that he walks almost as much as Barry Bonds does.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Dunn was one of the best players in the NL this past season. He took that step.

[Fishercat]

JMO (and it's not nearly as good as a Reds fan who has watched the guy), but under the assumption that Griffey cannot be dealt, Casey will not be dealt, and Dunn won't play 1B, then I'd be dealing whatever remaining OF I can get the best relative value for. If I can get a player at level X for Kearns, and only slightly above X for Dunn, then do that. I don't see Kearns as a real threat, but I don't think he'll bring back much. If WMP starts the year hot and has some nice stats at May or so, and you can get a great prospect or a few good ones back...I'd do it.

[redsrbetter]

In other words, you don't see very big returns coming from either a Kearns or Pena deal? I can agree with that assumption. Whenever the media talks about the Reds outfielders, it is usually highlighted with Dunn's name. Of course Dunn would give us a fat return, and of course we have three other outfielders that can fit the team nicely. But we won't have that superstar bat unless Pena or Kearns live up to their potential.

Does anyone disagree with Dunn possibly being the only guy that we could see an ace in return for. I think this is the realistic end of it unless teams are looking for potential which never pays in terms of an ace. So, with a little thinking outside of the box, is Dunn our best bet to trade?

[missionhockey21]

Dunn deserves an ace but we won't get one in return for him.

[Fishercat]

The real problem is that the real value of these OFs falls between what the two groups see in the players.

Both pretty much see Kearns as a potential-laden injury prone OF who hasn't proven anything outside of a few good months a few years ago. But Dunn and WMP are seen differently by different people. Adam Dunn, realistically, is worth at the very least one of the best #2's in baseball and a prospect. However, even if you're Oakland's GM, how do you justify to a group of fans who, on the whole, value traditional baseball measures, that you traded Barry Zito (long-time fan favorite with a knee breaking curveball and an A' all his live) for a guy who had the same BA as your backup catcher and has the single-season record for K's? Sure, you can still make the deal, but it's a PR disaster.

PR shouldn't prevent a deal, but it's a consideration (and the same logic used in the Nomar trade, although not precisely). Even then, sometimes, those fans become GMs from decades of climbing. So what if Adam Dunn is worth an ace, Omar Minaya isn't going to give you even a solid #2/#3 (Jae Seo?) and Lastings Milledge for Adam Dunn.

It's just something to think about, and it's what Moneyball was really partially about. Teams need to find something the general public and GMs undervalue and go for it. If the Reds had Minaya at GM and Minaya had to cut 8 mil in salary for next year, and a guy hitting .250 was getting interest for quality players from serious suitors...he may go for less than he is worth.

[Saber]

Wily Mo Pena and Adam Dunn are players at different ends of the spectrum.

Dunn is a low-average, very-high walk, very-high power player. His power comes principally from his ability to wait for a pitch he can drive hard. This discipline is what gets him so many walks and so many strikeouts. Guys like him are always undervalued by people who can never see past .250 and 200 Ks.

Pena, IF he reached his potential, is a Vladimir Guerrero-type player. That means good averages, low walks, and high power. Because Pena will swing at everything, he won't (or at least shouldn't) strike out much, but he also won't draw walks. The power potential for players like this is less than that of a Dunn or Bonds because they swing at less than optimal pitches.

That's just the nature of the species. To take a Dunn-type and add contact gets you Barry Bonds. Taking a Pena-Guerrero and adding discipline gets you Sammy Sosa. Don't count on either happening more than they already have.