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PREDICTION
72 wins, 4th place in the division. Maybe I'm optomistic. No large holes in the lineup that don't have a spect coming up, except maybe RF, and Bautista can move out there. The pen will be solid if the setup men play to their ability.
THE MAJORS
Catchers
Lead by Ronnie Paulino(8-5-4-6-7)(7Range, 7Arm). The catching position hasn't been a problem in a long time in Pittsburgh. A 2008 All Star, Paulino hit .311 with a .371(!) OBP and had a .388 SLG. If Paulino can continue his hot contact hitting, could contention for a batting title be possible? It definately could.
Humberto Cota(6-8-5-3-7) is one of the top backup catchers in baseball. Cota started off hot last season, notching five homers last year, all of them in April, leading to a .784 OPS in a solid 188 at bats. Cota probably deserved a trade and a starting job 2 years ago, but never got to move on. As is, he's been a solid backup for many years in Pittsburgh will hopefully continue to be so. He could also be moved for a prospect if anyone really needs a catcher, as the Pirates are happy with young Santiago Banas' defensive skills.
[b]FIRST BASEMEN[b]
Switch hitting Ryan Doumit(7-7-7-4-5) had been the biggest underachiever in Pittsburgh coming into 2008. He definately started to show what he could do, though when he hit .288 with 13 HR's and 80 RBI. Doumit, whose original position was catcher, will have to stay at first due to the emergence of Ronny Paulino, but may have problems with top prospect James Bouldic on his heels in Triple A. Doumit will have to improve on his 2008 numbers and hope for a trade to end up anything other than a backup catcher/top pinch hitter.
Despite his impressive power talent(and minor league numbers), slugger Brad Eldred(5-6-9-7-4) hasn't been able to make enough contact to be considered for a major league job. Eldred hit .291 with 55 HR's and 124 RBI's in only 478 AB's last season in Triple A, but slumped to .148, .303, .296 in the majors. Eldred will continue to fall into the role of minor league slugger, due to his inability to make consistant contact. He'll get an odd job as a pinch hitter here and there, but this career .194, .283, .393 hitter has a limited major league future.
SECOND BASEMEN
Coming into last season, everything was falling into place. Ruben Gotay(7-8-6-9-4 Talent) was set to take over at second base and become another young staple of the Pirates lineup. Gotay, however, struggled in the majors hitting only .230, .310, .345 in 139 late season at bats, and also struggled in Triple A(.262, .356, .403). After a highly promising 2007 when he hit .305, .381, .445 in Triple A, Gotay will return to the minors to start 2009. At age 26, he's running out of chances, especially with Jose Bautista's fine defensive effort last year.
It was always thought Jose Bautista(7-6-8-5-3) would slide into a utility role when all was said and done. After all, Ruben Gotay and Pedro Jareno were the futures at his two best positions, and his outfield defense just wasn't good enough to start every day. Low and behold, 2008: Bautista made 0 errors in 35 starts at second base, and hit .286, .342, .473 with 21 HR's, 78 RBI and stole 16 bases to work his way back into the current plans of the Pirates. Jose's out-of-nowhere talent boost was the biggest factor, as he went from 6 power to 8, and made himself into a future regular.
SHORTSTOP
Perhaps the best player on the 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates will be 25 year old shortstop Erick Aybar(9-9-5-4-7). Aybar was considered the throw in to the famous Jason Bay to Anaheim trade, and was added in for starting pitching prospect Kyle McCulloch at the end of negotiations. Now, he's clearly one of the francise players for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Aybar hit .276 last season, and added 11 HR's, 52 SB's, and scored 94 runs, mostly from the #2 hole. He'll be moved up to leadoff this year, with Chris Duffy's production dropoff, and that could prove to be the biggest test. Aybar will probably move Jose Bautista to the outfield in the future, as he'll likely move to second base for top prospect German Romero. Romero and Aybar could form one of the best double play combos in major league history for a long time to come.
THIRD BASEMAN
Chris Coughlan(6-7-4-3-4), was drafted in the 2006 ammy draft(errr, the first one), as the second third baseman selected by Pirates after Chris Marrero. Now, he's the starter in the majors. Coughlan will keep the spot warm for another top prospect, Pedro Jareno, who should be ready by the all star break. I expect a .250, .270, .330 line out of Coughlan this season as a starter.
OUTFIELDERS
Acquired in a what seemed to be a throwaway deadline deal for Craig Wilson in 2006, Delwyn Young(8-6-6-4-7) has become the Pirates leftfielder and team leader. Young hit .295 with 15 homers, 81 RBI and 18 stolen bases in 2008, well up from his .252, 3 HR, 49 RBI, 13(with 20 caught stealing). Young's offense will still play best at second, but the need for him is in the outfield, where the team lacks prospects. Delwyn has a good chance to stay in left in Pittsburgh for a long time to come, as the team should get their power offense from elsewhere.
What can be said about Mitch Maier(8-7-8-5-6) that hasn't already? Acquired in a deal along with Luis Cota for former top prospect catcher Neil Walker, Maier has followed in the footsteps of Brian Giles and Jason Bay as the Pirates star player in the outfield. After 17 consecutive losing seasons, this man is the reason the team has hope. Maier hit .289 with 21 HR's, 76 RBI and stole 15 bases last season before a season ending shoulder injury cost him the month of September. He's fully healed now, and will be ready for opening day. Maier will likely move to center field this season, and his offense should play well in center. Maier is the centerpiece to this future in the lineup, and could become an MVP canidate in the next couple years.
Disaster. The only word to describe Chris Duffy(6-7-3-5-4)'s 2008 season is disaster. After hitting .285 and .279 in '06 and '07 respectively. Duffy slumped to .225 last season. His contact talent dropped, and his OBP went down to .290 as well. Duffy will get a chance to redeem himself in 2009, but the leash is short, the team has plent of talent to look for a starting right fielder, and may even consider moving Jose Bautista out there and replacing Duffy's bat with Ruben Gotay's. The question is, will Duffy regan his 2007 form and return to stealing large amounts of bases? Time will tell.
UTILITY PLAYERS
Nobody screams jack-of-all-trades utility man more than Yurendell De Caster(5-7-5-4-7). While De Caster doesn't have much of a bat, he can play 6 positions well, and will always have a spot on the Pirates roster as long as he can. De Caster hit a career high .278 last season in 108 at bats, which is where he should be during every season. De Caster's leadership skills off the bench are another reason he's a solid addition to any team's bench
Acquired for Jose Castillo in 2006, Victor Diaz(5-6-7-6-3) has struggled to reach the promise he once held. Diaz hit .219 with 2 HR's and 9 RBI's last season, despite being on the major league roster all season long. He's a solid defensive player at the corner outfield spots, and at first, so he'll continue to have a job as a backup.
STARTING PITCHING
Nobody came further on any team in 2008 than Rookie of the Year runner up Matt Peterson(9-8-6). Peterson was Pittsburgh's best pitcher in his rookie season, fighting off a .324 BABIP to post a 3.93 ERA and go 9-10 in 24 starts. Peterson's impressive K-BB ratio was key, striking out 141 guys, while only walking 32. The major downside was the 139.2 innings pitched for Peterson, and he can't work deep into games. 2009 will be key to see if he can become the #2 starter on a young staff.
We spoke of Ryan Doumit's underachieving earlier, sadly, the same can be said about staff ace Zach Duke(8-8-9). Despite solid ratings, Duke has been average since his 2005 breakout season. Duke started 37 games in 2008, winning 11 and dropping 16. His 4.23 ERA was around the league average, and his 196-63 K-BB ratio was almost identical to his 2007 numbers. Duke needs to improve, he had trouble with HR's last season(27), and has just generally been average. The Pirates need him to step up at age 25 and become the ace they desperately need, if they're going to become a playoff team any time soon.
In his second full season as a Pirate, Ervin Santana(7-7-7) became the solid #3 the team was looking for. Santana started 32 games(totaling 204.1 IP), going 10-8 with a 3.61 ERA, tops on the team. Ervin, acquired in 2006 in the Jason Bay trade, will continue to be asked to eat up innings in the 3 hole of the rotation. His solid .295 BABIP contributed to most of his 2008 success, but he is only 26 years old.
It's been two years since Ian Snell(8-6-6), went 10-15 with a 3.92 ERA and showed signs that he may be the second best pitcher in Pittsburgh. Since then, Snell has went 16-31 with ERA's of 5.02 and 4.45 in the past two seasons. Snell is only 27, and has a solid 2.5-1 career K-BB ratio, and has posted solid WHIP's(1.36 and 1.30) the last two seasons, he just has to put everything back together. A better offense would certainly help, and Snell will start the 4th game of the season this year, hopefully taking the pressure off to lead to a huge season.
CLOSER
When J.J. Putz was traded last season, he was moved with one man in mind to take his job. 28 year old Josh Sharpless(7-7-8) was targetted after a solid start to the 2008 season. However, right before the trade was made, Sharpless suffered a ruptured elbow ligament and was set to miss five weeks, and maybe even more. However, Matt Capps struggled in his time with the job and it went to Sharpless when he healed. What happened? Sharpless went 10 out of 12 down the stretch and became the undisputed end-man for the team. He finished with a 2.49 ERA last year with a 45-11 K-BB ratio and a 1.11 WHIP.
SETUP MEN
More underachieving here, as setup men Mike Gonzalez(9-5-8) and Matt Capps(10-8-6) have definately not lived up to their potential in the last few seasons.
Gonzalez(4-5, 5.78 ERA, 1.59 WHIP in 2008) started 2006 as the team's closer, flopping badly and blowing 4 of his first 5 save opertunities. He was soon replaced, and moved to setup, where he lowered his ERA to 5.08, and hopes were high he could continue to improve in 2007. 96 games later, his ERA was down, yes, but only to 4.94, and despite winning 9 games, he had a 1.60 WHIP and a 96-60 K-BB ratio. Gonzalez is now 30, and is arbitration eligible. He needs a solid season to get considered as a closer as his free agency days near closer and closer.
Matt Capps(7-11, 5.51 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) burst on to the scene in 2006, appearing in 76 games and posting a 3.39 ERA and a solid 1.31 WHIP. With closer J.J. Putz on the trade block in 2007, he slumped and his ERA rose to 5.11, and he allowed 20 HR's. Capps is only 25, and has a career WHIP of 1.31, and a career BABIP of .286. His homeruns have been killing him the last few years, and if he cuts out the long ball, he should have a long future in this league as a end game reliever.
THE REST OF THE BULLPEN
Jared Washburn(4-8-7) was left for dead in Seattle, signed to a long term deal but rotting away in Triple A, due to shady management. Washburn arrived in Pittsburgh and instantly became the top mopup man. The result? ERA's of 3.57 and 4.15 and solid work throughout. While certainly not the most talented pitcher anymore, Washburn is reliable and can work multiple innings in blowouts and even get a couple outs in close games once in a while.
Former #1 overall draft pick Brian Bullington(8-6-6) moved strictly to the pen last season, after struggling as a starter in 2007. The result, a subpar season with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. Bullington pitched well in August, coming back from a successful minor league option and proved he could pitch out of the pen. He may get a chance at the 5 starter job once again this season, due to his 2007 failure.
Another Pirates first round pick, 26 year old Paul Maholm(6-7-8) was a canidate to be nontendered this offseason. Maholm pitched in 48 games last season with a 5.15 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Maholm had a great 2006 season in the rotation, but was moved to the pen to make room for Bullington, who struggled. He's also left handed, so he's a better bet for the 5 spot than the right handed Bullington, thanks to the amount of lefties in the pen.
THE REST: Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Burnett and Andres Martinez will compete for other pen spots. None of which are expected to do anything great, or be successful at all in 2009.
THE LINEUP
SS Erick Aybar
CA Ronnie Paulino
RF Mitch Maier
1B Ryan Doumit
2B Jose Bautista
LF Delwyn Young
3B Chris Coughlan
CF Chris Duffy
PS Pitcher's Spot
Rotation
1. LHP Zach Duke
2. RHP Matt Peterson
3. RHP Ervin Santana
4 RHP Ian Snell
5. LHP Paul Maholm(?)
Bullpen
Closer: Josh Sharpless
Setup: Matt Capps and Mike Gonzalez
Middle: Tom Gorzelanny, Brian Bullington, Andres Martinez and Jared Washburn
Mop Up: Jared Washburn and Andres Martinez
TOP 10 PROSPECTS
Prospects must not have reached 130 career AB's, 50 innings pitched or 30 games pitched to be eligible for this list.
1. 3B Pedro Jareno(8-10-10-10-6 talent)
2. 1B James Bouldic(9-7-10-7-7 talent)
3. SS German Romero(10-7-8-9-8 talent)
4. SP Bill Helms(8-7-8 talent, 10 END, 56% GB)
5. SP Colby Moore(8-9-6 talent, 9 END, 42% GB)
6. RF Devin Shepher(6-4-9-6-7 talent)
7. SP Nick Adenhart(9-7-5 talent, 8 END, 38% GB)
8. SP Joaquin Santiago(7-9-6 talent, 7 END, 50% GB)
9. SP Teodoro Marmelejo(8-6-6 talent, 10 END, 69% GB)
10. SS Javier Guzman(7-4-4-6-4 talent)
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