Jay Cutler a Bear-to-be

[nick]

first time in my lifetime, and probably a lot of others, that the bears will have a real qb... to those from chicago... let's enjoy it.

[NYgiantsfan5689]

Great job by the Bears to get Cutler. I think the Broncos were SO STUPID to get rid of him. Should be fun to see him in Chicago

[rockin500]

thumbs down. two first rounders, kyle orton AND a 3rd round pick?!?! Fine, he's a good QB, but is he worth THAT?

The bears need some RECEIVERS. hester is at best a #2 right now, with a bunch of #4's.

[love_that_reefer]

Its not like the Broncos had a choice. They tried trading Cutler, it pissed Jay off to the point he wasn't going to play for them and gave the Broncos exactly what they wanted in the first place, a trade. Broncos should have never fired Shannahan and hired whoever the **** they got. The guy looks younger than me and obviously pissed off the wrong mother ****er.

[NYgiantsfan5689]

thumbs down. two first rounders, kyle orton AND a 3rd round pick?!?! Fine, he's a good QB, but is he worth THAT?

The bears need some RECEIVERS. hester is at best a #2 right now, with a bunch of #4's.

the Bears GOT a 3rd round pick from the Broncos, they didn't give one away in the deal

[browntown653]

Lose-lose trade for both teams IMO...the Bears gave up too much to get a guy who's not a proven winner...although Denver now downgrades to Kyle Orton. Maybe Cutler can shut his mouth now...but I doubt it

[NYgiantsfan5689]

Its not like the Broncos had a choice. They tried trading Cutler, it pissed Jay off to the point he wasn't going to play for them and gave the Broncos exactly what they wanted in the first place, a trade. Broncos should have never fired Shannahan and hired whoever the **** they got. The guy looks younger than me and obviously pissed off the wrong mother ****er.

I completely agree. The Broncos' front office is getting a bigtime EPIC FAIL for this offseason so far in my eyes. The only thing they've done right is get a pretty good haul for Cutler. But now they don't have a competent QB. They should never have gotten themselves into this situation. And like Reefer said, they should never have fired Shannahan

[nick]

thumbs down. two first rounders, kyle orton AND a 3rd round pick?!?! Fine, he's a good QB, but is he worth THAT?

The bears need some RECEIVERS. hester is at best a #2 right now, with a bunch of #4's.

best young qb in the league ... yea, we need wrs... and hester isnt a #2 even, he's dante hall duex... but only 3 others have thrown for 8,000 yards and 40 tds combined these past 2 yrs, and they're all over 30-- cutler is 25.. he could potentially be a bear for the next 10-15 years, depending on how his career shapes up. I'll take a franchise QB over two more potential 1st round busts, and another pass-rushing defensive lineman project in the 3rd.


and wait until the final verdict comes out... it might not include the 3rd rounder. ive heard so many scenarios, i dont know what to expect

[nick]

the Bears GOT a 3rd round pick from the Broncos, they didn't give one away in the deal

different reports say different things, but thats just speculated right now... until its officiall i have no idea what we're getting besides cutler.


even if cutler isn't a proven winner in some peoples eyes (who is amongst the young crop of qbs outside of big ben and now eli?), you're not going to find a better bet for the next 10+ years available this often...


fact of the matter is if we dont make this move, chicago fans *****-- if we make the move, chicago fans *****. obviously we were gonna give up a hand and an armsful for him.... but come on.. doesnt the idea of having a franchise qb appeal to anyone?

bears also signed orlando pace, which will help for as long as he can stay healthy... who knows, maybe he'll start up towards 10 games or so. hes a big addition when healthy...

[rockin500]

the Bears GOT a 3rd round pick from the Broncos, they didn't give one away in the deal

no, they gave away the third this year.

[NYgiantsfan5689]

Oo ok. I guess NFL.com had it wrong when I looked last.

It said they gave up 2 firsts and Orton, and got back Cutler and a 3rd. Now I guess the story changed to say they gave up 2 firsts, a 3rd, and Orton, and got back Cutler and a 5th.

That is a heck of a lot, but I think it's the right thing to do for their franchise

[nick]

think of it this way rockin... we dont have to blow more money on 1st round busts.

[rockin500]

think of it this way rockin... we dont have to blow more money on 1st round busts.

true. but he will need to grow up. we dont want him to turn into benson or enis or mcnown.

[love_that_reefer]

Don't piss him off and try to trade him behind his back.

[DMBZeppelin]

Ok ok this is about to an epic rant. It's only because I want people to realize how crazy they are if they think 1.) This wasn't a great deal for the Bears and 2.) They gave up too much.

Lets analyze the value of this trade. 1st round draft picks sound so great. Because they are 100% potential. Lets face facts. The 2009 1st round draft pick by the Bears would have been a receiver. 1st round receivers generally don't pan out. It's best to grab them in round 2-5.

Lets say the Lions offered the 1st overall pick as rumored. Hell lets say Cutler was in the draft. He'd be the first overall pick.

Using the NFL's draft point system: http://www.sportznutz.com/nfl/draft/...alue_chart.htm

#1 overall pick: 3,000 points (Where Cutler would go in this draft)
#18 overall pick: 900 points (Bears 1st rounder)
#84 overall pick: 170 points (Bears 3rd rounder)

900 points + 170 points = 1,070 points

The Bears are now 1,930 points short of the 1st overall pick. The Bears would need the 3rd overall pick in the 2010 draft to make that up in the point system. Basically barring a horrible season, the Bears gave up less for Cutler then what it would take to get that 1st overall pick from the Lions. They got Cutler for less then it would take to trade up and get Stafford.

Again all draft picks are potential to be something good just as much as they are failures. Would the Colts trade Manning in his prime? Would the Packers trade Favre in his prime? How do you put a price on a 25 year old QB? They make you a contender year after year. Your team is always in the playoff hunt.

One thing I've been hearing from idiot Bears fans is that Orton was 21-12 as the starter. ESPN even brings up that crap. Cutler was like 17-20 or something like that. He was playing with a crap defense in Denver. They were beyond bad. I mean check this out:

In games that the Broncos have allowed 21 points or fewer, Cutler is an impressive 13-1, and that only loss was to Green Bay in 2007 when the Packers won the coin toss and Brett Favre threw an 82-yard touchdown pass on the first play of overtime.

The fact remains the Bronco's averaged giving up almost 30 points a game this season. No QB win with that. At least history says that's the case:

Record of QB's when their defense allows 30 points or more
Tom Brady: 5-8
Jim Kelly: 10-20
Peyton Manning: 9-25
Joe Montana: 6-17
Kurt Warner: 6-22
Jay Cutler: 3-13
Steve Young: 4-19
Ben Roethlisberger: 2-10
Brett Favre: 8-42
Terry Bradshaw: 4-21
Donovan McNabb: 3-16
John Elway: 7-41
Dan Marino: 7-52
Philip Rivers: 1-8
Jake Plummer: 4-37 (0-10 with the Broncos)
Troy Aikman: 2-20
Ron Jaworski: 1-14
Eli Manning: 1-16
Jeff George: 1-40
Matt Cassel: 0-4
Phil Simms: 0-20

I mean you get the point. The most important thing though is how good is Cutler exactly at being a QB? Well these are like the saber guys of football:

Based on Football Outsiders' advanced defense-adjusted yards above replacement stats (explained here), Cutler was one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL last season. He holds very little if any blame for Denver's 8-8 record and late-season collapse. Cutler was the only full-time starting quarterback who didn't have a single game below replacement level in 2008. Denver was losing games because its defense was horrible. Our DVOA ratings go back to 1994, and over the past 15 seasons, the only defense to play worse belonged to the 2008 Lions.

In case you're wondering what this means exactly. Here's the explanation:

Primary Stats

DVOA: The main statistic used by Football Outsiders, DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), breaks down the entire season play by play, comparing the success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables, including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter and opponent quality.

While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, etc. It can also be used to analyze specific players.

For more on how DVOA is computed, read the explanation at http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php FootballOutsiders.com. You can find current total DVOA ratings for 2008 on this page.

DYAR: Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. Our metric which takes a player's performance, adjusted for situation and opponent in the manner of DVOA, and then translates it into the approximate number of actual yards that such success (or failure) is worth when compared to a generic bench scrub (also called a "replacement player.") This statistic will increase the rating for players who have a high usage, even if their performance is average, demonstrating the importance of workhorse running backs and receivers who can draw the attention of the defense away from other players.

DYAR stats for 2008 are listed on FootballOutsiders.com for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

All in all 25 year old pro bowl QB's aren't a common thingin the NFL. I don't think you can put a price on it. He's a franchise player. Even if the Bronco's get a franchise player from one of the Bears picks, that's still a good deal. You really think the Bronco's are going to hit on all three picks with them being franchise/pro bowl players? Kyle Orton was a toss in. He holds no value because he'd be a waste of cash on the Bears roster. They used that money and got themselves someone like Orlando Pace.

Jay Cutler is a Chicago Bear. They didn't over pay. They just got it done. The only loser I see in this is Denver.