Often a team will bring its closer into a tie game in the ninth inning at home on the theory that if he can hold the opposition in the top half of the inning, his team has a chance to win in the bottom half. When the Padres try this (as they did recently against the Dodgers) and it doesn't work,
fans and analysts alike are quick to note that
Trevor Hoffman isn't effective in non-save situations. Frequently this observation is accompanied by calls to hold him out of such situations in the future.
But here's a question to consider: Is it true? Does Hoffman really struggle in non-save situations, or is the power of perception at work?
To answer this question, I ran through Hoffman's game logs at Baseball-Reference. Using B-R's Play Index, it's possible to choose only those games that represent save opportunities. I did that for 1994-2007 (no 1993 because Hoffman wasn't a closer yet) and dumped everything into a spreadsheet. And then I added everything together and came up with the following:
<stats shown here comparing Trevor's stats in save situations compared to non save situations from 1994-2007, but I couldn't format them correctly and don't have time to do so, so click on the link to view them>
Three things jump out at me here. First, Hoffman's ERA is indeed higher in non-save situations. Second, Hoffman appears to be less concerned with putting runners on base in non-save situations—his strikeouts are down 4%, his hits allowed are up 10%, and his walks are up a staggering 52%.
So, yeah, it looks like the naysayers are right. End of story.
Wait, I forgot to mention the third thing that jumped out at me: the difference in innings pitched. Hoffman has worked only half as many innings in non-save situations as in save situations.