Diamondbacks@Padres 4/18/2007-4/19/2007

[JayDawg27]

technically you're right, because he has only pitched 2 games I dont think its fair to label him as struggling, it's just that he's fat and old and his last game was so horrible.

[HollywoodLeo]

No...both scenarios are good games by David Wells, but in the first scenario I would call it being outpitched by a better pitcher. Being outpitched doesnt mean you had a bad game, it means that someone did better than you did.

But in one case Wells gets a loss, in another case he gets a win. And you're trying to imply Wins/Losses aren't overrated for pitchers? (Or at least that's the impression I got.)

Sure, he got "out pitched" But he wasn't pitching to Brandon Webb in my scenario (or Livan Hernandez) He was pitching to the entire Diamondbacks offense.

Had John Lackey thrown a perfect game that day against whomever the Angels were playing he would've also outpitched David Wells, and it'd have the same bearing on how well David Wells pitched...only it wouldn't decide where to add the 1 to David Wells' win/loss column.

W/L is a vastly overrated stat for pitchers.

Your example was a tad bit of an extreme case...because I dont know the last time david wells went 9 innings allowing 1 run...

Irrelevant. I'm arguing the relevance of pointing blindly at a pitcher's win/loss total, not the odds of David Wells pitching a 9 inning complete game, giving up only 1 run.

but in any case I see what you are getting at. The Poor run support defense can be said in certain individual games sometimes..but David Wells losing to Brandon Webb I would never blame on a lack of run support.

I might not blame that on lack of run support, but I'd certainly point out the extenuating circumstances should somebody point out to me that "David Wells is now 0-2 on the season"

Maybe if David wells lost a 2-1 game to someone like todays Jeff Weaver, then yes.

He'd still have pitched a good game in which his team didn't give him 3 runs.

In the grand scheme of things, I think W/L are a valid stat and are not overrated...especially when looking at career numbers.

Maybe in the olden days when pitchers actually pitched the majority of the game. But in today's game where pitchers are routinely taken out of the game to watch their pen give up their lead, (or in some cases watch their offense save them by taking back the lead) no.

[padrefanforever]

picky picky picky........

Padres win win.......

[fetters]

I dont disagree with a lot of what you said (except to an extent the last point that you make)...though I'm still trying to figure out what you mean in that sentence about John Lackey.

Let me set the record straight: Some people DO overrate the wins/losses category for pitchers...and other people undervalue the W/L stat. And there have been entire SEASONS in which a lack of run support or an abundance of run support has unfairly skewed the W/L stat. (Randy Johnson 2003 and Randy Johnson 2006). Randy Johnson should have had more wins in 2003, and less wins in 2006.

However, the man has 280 career wins. That, in my mind, is definately not overrated. That is an indication of his dominance, his longevity, his consistency, and his ability to pitch deep into games. The W/L category sort of blankets all of those factors together.

Pitchers who consistently put up wins dont do it by accident...and the same goes for pitchers who consistently lose. Pitchers who rack up wins are usually those who do all of the aforementioned things (consistency, dominance, pitching deep into games, etc). Sure, everyone has a string of bad luck where they wont get good run support, but they will also win a few games that they shouldnt have due to massive run support. It all pretty much evens out in the end. It happens sometimes, but for the most part a pitcher usually wins games because he deserves it.

[fetters]

A couple more things before I go...

Yes, there are stats more important than W/L. I don't disagree with that. But too many people want to completely disregard it.

Imagine if a batter goes 0 for 4 in a given night, but he hit the ball hard all 4 times and got robbed of hits by diving plays and nice catches. Yes, this guy had bad luck on that night...but there will also probably be games where he goes 3 for 4 with an infield single and two weak bloopers. However, when its all said and done, the season stats will be the best indication of how that player did at the plate.

The same goes for a pitcher. He might get unlucky for a couple games, and maybe he'll get lucky for some other games. The season stats, and career stats tell the better story and there is no reason to discredit wins and losses when looking at stats over a long period of time.

Are wins/losses overrated? sometimes.

Are they VASTLY overrated? No.

[HollywoodLeo]

I dont disagree with a lot of what you said (except to an extent the last point that you make)...though I'm still trying to figure out what you mean in that sentence about John Lackey.

The only difference between Brandon Webb's effect on David Wells' performance and John Lackey's effect on David Wells' performance is that Webb probably tried to bunt a runner over a few times against Wells.

[HollywoodLeo]

A couple more things before I go...

Yes, there are stats more important than W/L. I don't disagree with that. But too many people want to completely disregard it.

The only time I start these debates is when someone points at a pitcher's win/loss total like it's some kind of bottom line.

For instance, like when someone says "By the way, David Wells is 3-7 at PetCo in his career!"

Imagine if a batter goes 0 for 4 in a given night, but he hit the ball hard all 4 times and got robbed of hits by diving plays and nice catches. Yes, this guy had bad luck on that night...but there will also probably be games where he goes 3 for 4 with an infield single and two weak bloopers. However, when its all said and done, the season stats will be the best indication of how that player did at the plate.

The same goes for a pitcher. He might get unlucky for a couple games, and maybe he'll get lucky for some other games. The season stats, and career stats tell the better story and there is no reason to discredit wins and losses when looking at stats over a long period of time.

Are wins/losses overrated? sometimes.

Are they VASTLY overrated? No.

The difference being, the effect of the relief pitcher.

Starting pitcher throwing a 1-0 gem and lasts 7 strong innings. Bullpen comes in and proceeds to give up the lead...robbing the SP of his win, and sometimes unduly getting credited with one himself if his team immediately takes the lead back the following half inning.

There's nothing that can affect a batter's batting average this way.

[JayDawg27]

"The difference being, the effect of the relief pitcher.

Starting pitcher throwing a 1-0 gem and lasts 7 strong innings. Bullpen comes in and proceeds to give up the lead...robbing the SP of his win, and sometimes unduly getting credited with one himself if his team immediately takes the lead back the following half inning."

They should really look at changing the stat for this because that really could suck for a pitcher who, as far fetched as it is, hypothetically be a CY pitcher and get zero wins on a season if he A) gets no run support but leaves the game with a small lead and B) his bull pen gives up the game every time he pitches over the length of a season.

[HollywoodLeo]

\
Had John Lackey thrown a perfect game that day against whomever the Angels were playing he would've also outpitched David Wells, and it'd have the same bearing on how well David Wells pitched...only it wouldn't decide where to add the 1 to David Wells' win/loss column.

2-1 game in the bottom of the 7th, no hitter thrown elsewhere in the American League....

[HollywoodLeo]

Wells is out, now, however for a pinch hitter.

[padrefanforever]

Wells tossed a helluva game.......but I guess Fetters would think he didn't eh ?

[fetters]

Never once did I say if a pitcher doesn't get the W then it's a bad game. I've tried to clarify that already but Padre fans keep putting words in my mouth. The point I'm trying to make is that people blame "lack of run support" too often for wins and losses, when sometimes you have to give credit to the other pitcher and admit that their pitcher performed better than yours did. In this case it was pretty even (sort of. webb had 9 more strikeouts and only 1 of his 2 runs was earned)

Wells tossed a good game.

The reason he didnt get the win was not becuase of a lack of run support.

[padrefanforever]

I can't believe you think a pitcher could toss a 1 hitter, get the loss, and it's a poorly pitched game.........do you even watch baseball.........

[HollywoodLeo]

Never once did I say if a pitcher doesn't get the W then it's a bad game. I've tried to clarify that already but Padre fans keep putting words in my mouth. The point I'm trying to make is that people blame "lack of run support" too often for wins and losses, when sometimes you have to give credit to the other pitcher and admit that their pitcher performed better than yours did. In this case it was pretty even (sort of. webb had 9 more strikeouts and only 1 of his 2 runs was earned)

Wells tossed a good game.

The reason he didnt get the win was not becuase of a lack of run support.

I wasn't trying to insinuate that you think a 1 hitter is a poorly pitched game if the opposing pitcher gets the W.

My main point is, however, that the fact that a pitcher can pitch a 1 hitter and get an L is what makes W/L an overrated stat.

Regardless of why the offense didn't provide him the run support (whether that be because they sucked or because the other pitcher pitched better) the fact remains that the pitcher pitched a 1 hitter, only gave up one run, but got an L.

In the meantime, somewhere else in baseball that day, there's probably some scrub who gave up 6 runs in 5 innings, but got a W because his offense scored 8 runs for him.

[padrefanforever]

peavy with 7 K's so far today