NL Cy Young: Is it really even a question who is the leading candidate?

[HuskerFan2002]

This race will come down to the month of September and whoever finishes effectively, will win the NL Cy Young.

Next month, the Cardinals play five teams who are under .500(as of today's standings). The Astros, on the other hand, play four teams who are under .500

I honestly don't believe Clemens will win the Cy Young simply because I believe whoever will vote for the Cy Young will look at how many wins does his team have rather than looking at the ERA. Roger Clemens has done many wonders for the Astros and if he can carry his ball club to a Wildcard berth, maybe those voters will think twice.

[Saber]

Roger Clemens is clearly in the twilight of his career. I think it's perfectly safe to trade him to the Blue Jays at this point.



Chris Carpenter is having a great year, but I'm hard pressed to not give the Cy Young to the superior Roger Clemens, who is the greatest pitcher since World War II.

[Fishercat]

Let's not go crazy on the innings and CGs and such. This isn't a 2003 Halladay-Pedro difference where they had somewhat similar values in spite of Pedro's ERA being significantly lower, this is a noticeably more minor difference. The difference between the two, when all the numbers comes together, is two more outs a game.

Let me try something. Carpenter has 18 more innings than and 19 more ERs allowed. That is, for simplicity sake, an ER an inning (it's really something like a 9.5 ERA or 1.05 ER per). Now, is there any bullpen in baseball (above, at, or below average) that has a team ERA of 9.5? If not, the harm done by going from SP to Bullpen is not enough to offset the difference in my book.

For Clemens sake, let's look at the Astros pen. The Astros pen ERA is an impressive 3.76 (it's likely higher generally, but I'll get to that). That means that the RP in that time, on average, would allow 7-8 runs in time that Carpenter was spending pitching. If you put Clemens in that spot and continued the ERA, that's 3 runs allowed. 5 run difference. Once you consider that, without looking at the box scores of Clemens games and see how they actually did, I'd say the innings difference (even if you took a bullpen ERA of 5.00 where it turns into 10 ER) isn't significant enough to allow for the ER difference

[love_that_reefer]

This is easy. Randy Johnson was clearly a better pitcher than Clemens last year but was penalized b/c of wins. Now it is Clemens turn to get shafted. Carpenter has carried that staff all year and hopefully carry them deep in the playoffs. Carpenter as of right now should get the Cy Young if we are all still voting like last year. Can't see it being any different.

[Saber]

So your plan is to screw a guy this year because voters screwed someone else last year? It's not like Clemens has a vote in the matter, you know.

[love_that_reefer]

Who said anything about Clemens voting? Randy was screwed and they have the same voters this year so why would anything be different?

[Providence A's]

Clemens got one when he didn't deserve it in 2003 and if he doesn't win this year, then it's balanced out

[rockin500]

its a simple matter who deserves it: clemens. carpenter probably will, but hes undeserving in comparison to clemens at this point. He could outperform Clemens in september but whether thats the case is not really the point in this discussion since the question is being asked at this point of the season.

[Providence A's]

Clemens lost again last night at the hands of a future CY Young winner named Jake. Jake had a CG shutout.

Clemens did get his 2nd CG in the last 6 years...it was a cheap 8 inning CG, but still a CG.

[joek]

Tell that to all the 300 game winners in the HOF. WINS define a pitchers talent. Everything else is window dressing for the losers.

[bwitty24]

HOF shouldn't matter joek...that is an individual stat. Stats are meaningless I thought.

[joek]

300 wins meant the pitcher helped his team WIN an exceptional amount of times. And wins is what the games is about. Play your semantic games with someone else. Winning is the single most important thing a pitcher can do for his team. No other stat is worth a damn compared to WINS. Did you ever ask yourself why 300 wins can get a pitcher into the HOF and his ERA doesn't matter.

[Saber]

That's why Sandy Koufax should never have gotten into the Hall of Fame.

[CrazyEights]

its a simple matter who deserves it: clemens. carpenter probably will, but hes undeserving in comparison to clemens at this point. He could outperform Clemens in september but whether thats the case is not really the point in this discussion since the question is being asked at this point of the season.

I disagree, because the discussion isn't simply who the better pitcher is. It's who should win the CY Young Award, and that's not handed out in August. You have to consider that there is still another month of games to be played. Can Clemens keep up this pace? Maybe, but I expect his ERA to creep closer and closer to 2.00.

[joek]

And Carpenter may have 20+WINS.