The Long Term Look: 2004's Free Agent Second Basemen

[Saber]

We all know who was a free agent coming into this year, and where they signed. We also now how these players are doing as of now. But so what? What can we expect in the future from these men on which so much is riding? Vinny Castilla is hitting now, but what can we reasonably expect him to do through his contract? Carlos Beltran? Carl Pavano? I will analyze these men, and their reasonable futures in this, an ongoing column.

The key word is reasonable folks, so no, I won't say your team's big signing will be a Hall-of-Famer unless I think he is. Of course, I reserve the right to be wrong and completely change my mind later. On to it:

Mark Grudzielanek
St. Louis Cardinals
Contract-$1 million in 2005 (one year and one million less per year than Tony Womack)
What he has been-Mr. Slappy. Grudz hits for good averages, but has only gotten on base in his career year 1999 and in 2003 for the Cubs. No power, decent glove, a stopgap. Never a leadoff man, shouldn't be used as one.
What he will be-An older Mr. Slappy. Guys like this stick around until they lose the batting average, then they fall off the face of the earth. Someone will have a hole and sign him for 2006.
Mitigating circumstances-One of the few healthy Cardinals this year, he's putting up a .283/.325/.383 line right on pace with the rest of his career. Still better than Womack.

Craig Counsell
Arizona Diamondbacks
Contract-$1.35 million in 2005, $1.75 million in 2006
What he has been-Starting his career late, Counsell has shown himself to be a nifty utility man with some on-base skills, able to fill in around the infield or start in the middle and not kill you.
What he will be-He's be useful for the length of the deal, but the D'backs would be better to try younger players in his stead. Begin Late, Decline Early. Guys like Counsell rarely last too long into their 30s.
Mitigating Circumstances- At .266/.363/.398, he's helping the D'Backs offense, and is a useful leadoff man. At his age and salary, he should be trade bait.

Tadahito Iguchi
Chicago White Sox
Contract-$2.3 million in 2005, $2.4 million in 2006, $3.25 million team option in 2007 with a 250K buyout
What he has been- A top second baseman in the Japanese Leagues, Iguchi hit for very high averages, with moderate walks, and good power in 2003 and 2004. Before then, he struggled to meet his potential. With the current adjustments of the Japanese Leagues, he loses a good chunk of the average, and a lot of the power. It still translated into a good player for those peak years.
What he will be- Already 30, anything we see in MLB is likely his decline phase. The real effects of the transition from Japan are unknown, since we really only have a handful of players to look at, from Ichiro Suzuki at the top to Kaz Matsui at the bottom.
Mitigating Circumstances- With a .266/.330/.412, it's a hell of a drop from Japan. This move can't be considered a success without a serious bounce back. You can't expect him to match his Japanese numbers, but too much was lost in translation.

Jeff Kent
Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract-$7.35 million in 2005, $9.65 million in 2006
What he has been-You know, Kent may be making a very good Hall of Fame case. There hasn't been a second basemen with his sustained offensive excellence for quite a long time. A career .289/.352/.505 line from a second sacker is pretty sweet, even if he doesn't make the Hall. While the scouts hate his defense, the advanced metrics seem to rate him as an elite defender. It's hard to believe, but he may be a subtly great two-way player. Or Soriano+1 with a Walks Enchantment. I have no idea.
What he will be-He's old. Even at 37, and with a decline from his Giants peak, he can still be worth his Dodgers contract and then some.
Mitigating Circumstances-His .303/.379/.522 year isn't as high as his Giants peak, but better than his Houston years. Easily one of the best free agent signings of 2005. Just one more year of guaranteed money, too. Still a redneck jerk, though.

Miguel Cairo
New York Mets
Contract-$900K for 2005 only (that's 1.1 million less and one year less than Tony Womack)
What he has been-Cairo is a run of the mill scrub who had a career best .292/.346/.417 2004 campaign, doing a pretty good job replacing Alfonso Soriano.
What he will be-It would be a real stretch to expect another season like 2004, and the Mets signed him knowing that. Some other team might do the same next year.
Mitigating Circumstances-A .256/.295/.333 year in under 200 plate appearances is scrubby enough to show that Cairo is back to his scrublike norm.

[browntown653]

Nice, I always enjoy reading these things.

[love_that_reefer]

Grudz isn't a leadoff man and won't be used as one and Kent doesn't have Bonds which would explain his Giants decline.