The Long-Term Look: 2004's Free Agent Shortstops

[Saber]

We all know who was a free agent coming into this year, and where they signed. We also now how these players are doing as of now. But so what? What can we expect in the future from these men on which so much is riding? Vinny Castilla is hitting now, but what can we reasonably expect him to do through his contract? Carlos Beltran? Carl Pavano? I will analyze these men, and their reasonable futures in this, an ongoing column.

The key word is reasonable folks, so no, I won't say your team's big signing will be a Hall-of-Famer unless I think he is. Of course, I reserve the right to be wrong and completely change my mind later. On to it:

Nomar Garciaparra

Chicago Cubs
Contract- $8.25 million for 2005
What he has been- His peak, where he spent three years chasing batting titles, ended in 2000. Nomar has been an elite-level shortstop consistently since then. His only health problem until last year was an offseason wrist injury that seemingly slowed his bat, but did not cost him much value. Sometimes you forget that he's been a certain Hall-of-Famer up until 2004.
What he will be- Hurt. With his year over, and combined with last year's injury, Nomar may now be considered injury-prone. At 31 and a free agent after the year, long-term deals will be hard to come by. The Cubs should be glad they only signed him for this year. The permanent effects of his injuries won't be known for awhile, though.
Mitigating circumstances- With a torn groin muscle (a full avulsion, with the muscle completely separated from the bone), Garciaparra will not be back this year. Any talk that he could come back without surgery is just talk. Steroids had nothing to do with it.

David Eckstein

St. Louis Cardinals
Contract- $2.33 million in 2005, $10.25 million net through 2007
What he has been- A slap-hitting second baseman forced to play shortstop. He's never drawn a large number of walks or hit for any power, so his value is tied up heavily in his batting average. This made him an asset in 2001 and 2002, but a liability in 2003 and 2004. Luis Castillo-lite.
What he will be- He isn't getting any faster or younger, and will probably be dead weight when his bat slows at all. Reports on his defense range from awful to surprisingly elite. He pumps his arms and loads his whole body into every throw, so I don't know what to think. I predict a move to second after Grudz is gone in St. Louis. Eckstein doesn't strike out at all, and can't afford to. If he does, he's done.
Mitigating circumstances- At .307/.381/.379, this is honestly the best the Cardinals can hope. Since they played Tony Womack last year, they'll be happy with it. It's hard to imagine this little guy getting on-base for monsters like Rolen, Pujols, Walker, and Edmonds. Seems vaguely insulting to them. On another note, you could replace the face in Eckstein's picture with the faces of half the members of this forum, and I wouldn't be able to tell the difference.

Edgar Renteria

Boston Red Sox
Contract- $8 million in 2005, $40 million net through 2008
What he has been- Good glove, low walks, nice power, good average. Aside from his fluky MVP-caliber .330/.394/.480 2003 season, we've seen the pretty steady progression of a very good shortstop.
What he will be- The decline will likely continue, and with a power loss last year, his batting average will tell the tale. Not yet 30, this is a bad signing by the Red Sox for as long as they did it.
Mitigating circumstances- A .246/.296/.338 is not the way to create confidence. You can add 30 points to this line by the end of the year. That's still not worth it.

Orlando Cabrera

Anaheim Angels
Contract- $6 million in 2005, $32 million net through 2008
What he has been- A defensive star (until his back hurt), Orlando has had a bat that looks like a good Renteria, or a bad Eckstein. His back may have something to do with this, sapping his power. He actually did both last year, sucking out loud with Montreal, then hitting well in Boston.
What he will be- 30 years old, and with a bat showing wildly varying averages, the future doesn't look too bright for Anaheim at short. He should already be working out with Vladimir Guerrero's personal trainer, as Vlad himself has worked very hard to overcome back issues.
Mitigating circumstances- .237/.303/.367 in 139 ABs has shown that David Eckstein never really left.

[Saber]

Cristian Guzman

Washington Nationals
Contract- $4.2 million in 2005, $16.8 million net through 2008
What he has been- It sucks to say that a player peaked at age 23, but it's clear that Guzman hasn't built on his 2001 where he put up a .302/.337/.477 line. Since then, he's been a consistent offensive black hole. People who cite his raw numbers forget that this a largely a product of playing time, his isolated power being a little over .100 the last three years.
What he will be- At 27 now, with no progress in three consecutive seasons, the four years of this deal look just horrible. There's no reason to believe that Guzman will become a better player than he is now, and every reason to think he'll be out of the game when this contract is up. Consider this a Pat Meares-level contract, without the insurance fraud. Billy Beane coined a great phrase everyone can agree with, "If he can hit, why hasn't he hit?"
Mitigating circumstances- "Hitting" .209/.246/.269 in 142 plate appearances, you could add 75 points across the board and he would still suck.

Omar Vizquel

San Francisco Giants
Contract- $3.16 million in 2005, $12.25 million net through 2007
What he has been- The former defensive wizard has actually been fairly consistent from year to year with his power and walks, with his average swinging from very good to painful. His limited power has been draining the last two years, but there wasn't much to begin with.
What he will be- He's 38 and 5'9". A good one year stopgap, a bad 3 year investment. A guy like Vizquel would have been a god in the 80s. Not now.
Mitigating circumstances- .273/.347/.373 is about the same Omar groove we've been seeing for a decade.

Royce Clayton

Arizona Diamondbacks
Contract- $1.35 million in 2005
What he has been- His career year was a .288/.346/.445 campaign in Texas. In 1999. Since then, he hasn't hit outside of Colorado, and even then, he wasn't all that good. Think Guzman, more walks, less average, and 8 years older. I think I threw up in my mouth a little.
What he will be- Even in a homerun park like the BOB, Clayton is nothing more than a placeholder. He'll also hit like one.
Mitigating circumstances- At .207/.257/.281, the D'Backs have two better options in Alex Cintron and Craig Counsell.

Rich Aurilia

Cincinnati Reds
Contract- $500,000 on a one year deal
What he has been- Take out his monstrous 2001, and you see a pretty clear regression of a shortstop in his mid 30s. The power is gone by now, and the bat is slowing.
What he will be- Washed up. The Reds can at least be credited with not paying him much and for only one year. Too many teams would sign Aurilia hoping for something like 2001, then act genuinely surprised that it never happens. This is the perfect example of a sunk cost. Why the Reds haven't cut him and focused on their many younger options that might actually possess a future is beyond me. Maybe it would help if those younger options stopped sucking out loud.
Mitigating circumstances- On the DL with a bad hammy (probably borrowed from Griffey), mercifully ending his .198/.228/.354 year. Pray the Reds forget he exists. The Reds should totally try playing Austin Kearns at shortstop.

(Images property of MLB.com)

[redsrbetter]

Good read man! Nice job in saying that Aurilia will be "washed up." But the thing is, he is already there. Good point on Vizquel being a solid stop gap also. He still has those remarkable hands. Its also ashame to see where Renteria is at this year. He was the man last season. I truly hope he gets back to form.

Good write up Saber!

[General]

The Reds should totally try playing Austin Kearns at shortstop.

Couldn't agree more. Nice article.

[Steak]

Great breakdown on the SS, Saber

The Nationals were clearly stupid to overpay for Cristian Guzman's service. Guzman basically hasn't done anything for the Nationals.

[love_that_reefer]

Eckstein does a lot of good for those monsters in that Cards lineup. Just about every AB it seems like he draws a 3-2 count and fouls off good pitches giving those guys a chance to see what they got. He is the kind of guy they love in St. Louis. Vizquel has been better than great for the Giants. He still has great range and is the Giants' best base stealer. Clayton is there for his good defense, something Counsell doesn't have. Aurilia isn't in Japan yet?

[Porter]

Aurilla- was a free agent bust in Seattle, why in the blue hell is he still in the ML is beyond me. He couldnt hit in Japan's Minor League System right now.

[Slyder]

Rich Aurilia

Cincinnati Reds
Contract- $500,000 on a one year deal
What he has been- Take out his monstrous 2001, and you see a pretty clear regression of a shortstop in his mid 30s. The power is gone by now, and the bat is slowing.
What he will be- Washed up. The Reds can at least be credited with not paying him much and for only one year. Too many teams would sign Aurilia hoping for something like 2001, then act genuinely surprised that it never happens. This is the perfect example of a sunk cost. Why the Reds haven't cut him and focused on their many younger options that might actually possess a future is beyond me. Maybe it would help if those younger options stopped sucking out loud.
Mitigating circumstances- On the DL with a bad hammy (probably borrowed from Griffey), mercifully ending his .198/.228/.354 year. Pray the Reds forget he exists. The Reds should totally try playing Austin Kearns at shortstop.

(Images property of MLB.com)

Aurilia's still on the dl, there are some rumblings that O' Brien put him on there just to keep Miley from playing him, making him use Lopez at ss, and that both of their (Miley and Aurilia) times are short in Cincy. I agreed with the reasoning behind signing Aurilia to the MLC after Anderson Machado (our backup ss) was injured and lost for most of the year and Juan Castro (last years utility man) was signed by the Twins as a free agent. But Aurilia should have been the BACKUP and the job be Lopez's to lose after ST, Lopez has started to kill the ball recently and has much better range than Aurilia. I use to be one of Lopez's biggest critics but seeing how he has improved won me over as a fan. If Aurilia comes back and is nothing but an "if someone gets hurt" infielder then Miley should be fired immediately.

[Saber]

I tend to give the Reds more leeway than you Reds fans on Aurilia, because he didn't cost much and he's not playing now. This is as opposed to, say, Tony Womack, who gets 2 million and left field for the Yankees. But I get ahead of myself.

[griffeyfan3]

Yea Aurilia is definatly 'washed up' its a waste to even sign him for 500,000 a year....rich should be paying cincy to play for them he sucks so bad

[Fishercat]

Still don't believe Guzman or Renteria got that much.

[Saber]

Think of the amount as a proportion of payroll, and as a proportion of the team's total offense.

[love_that_reefer]

Vizquel has been better than average in the field and leads all SS's in fielding percentage. He has stolen twice as many bases as last year's team leader, Durham. He has struggled the past two months bringing his average way down but has been effective. And the old man has played 133 games which is heavenly.

[love_that_reefer]

Eckstein has been great and St. Louis has really fallen in love with this guy. Leading all NL SS's in hitting and has gotten on base for those big guys. Only thing is the big guys haven't been there. Definitely a bargain as Walt Jocketty has done it again.

[Saber]

Considering some of the other deals that shortstops have gotten lately, Eckstein could have spontaneously combusted while fielding a grounder and the Cards would have come out better than some teams.