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Thread: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

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    Prospect Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    Interesting article by Boswell who argues against the Nationals drafting Strasburg at the rumored insane demands that Boras will have. At the price Boras will want for Strasburg, he believes that the risk taken to think that Strasburg will be the exception to the rule of risky or dissappointing upper first round pitching prospects is just too great and I tend to agree. $50 million is too much for many proven, performing, free agents... let alone an unproven pitcher that has a lot of draft history going against him. His talent is big, but if he flops that could really set a team back not only in the cash they wasted but in the opportunity cost of talent that they DIDN'T select.

    Armed, but Dangerous

    By Thomas Boswell
    Tuesday, March 24, 2009; E01

    It's too bad Stephen Strasburg is a pitcher. Otherwise, he might be worth a record-shattering amount of money for a No. 1 overall draft pick. But he's a pitcher. So, he isn't.

    History is unequivocal. Strasburg, no matter how much he dominates college hitters, will probably either be a .500 pitcher with a 150-150 record, or he'll be a bust.

    Unless his price drops to the same general range as David Price ($8.8 million in 2007) or Mark Prior (a record $10.5 million in 2001), the Nationals should pick somebody else with their top choice in the draft in three months.

    At the kind of numbers being rumored or leaked last weekend -- $50 million for six years -- there's nothing to see here. It's a waste of time. Especially since Scott Boras is Strasburg's adviser. Breaking the bank for Strasburg would be a huge waste of money and squandering of an enormously valuable draft pick.

    Enormously valuable, that is, if you pick a hitter.

    The history of baseball's draft since it began in 1965 is unmistakable. You can project exceptional hitters with about a 50 percent success rate. You can't project No. 1 overall pitchers at all.

    Nobody -- n-o-b-o-d-y -- has used a No. 1 overall pick on a pitcher and been glad they did it. Thirteen teams have tried it since the draft began in 1965. Nine have gotten egg on their faces. The lucky four got Andy Benes (155-139), Tim Belcher (146-140), Mike Moore (161-176) and Floyd Bannister (134-143). No Hall of Famers. Just a bunch of guys who could throw a ball through a wall when they were young but never became great.

    If you take a larger sample size, the evidence is even more conclusive. Since '65, 102 pitchers have been taken within the first five picks. Not one is going to the Hall of Fame. None is close. Only one won more than 200 games (Kevin Brown). Rounding out the top five -- Dwight Gooden (194 wins), Bill Gullickson, Moore and Benes. The only reliever of note: ex-Oriole Gregg Olson. Josh Beckett (89-62) may end up high on the list eventually.

    More than 75 percent of those 102 were wasted picks. Yet absolutely every one was hailed as a future star.

    However, if the Nats use their No. 1 overall pick for a hitter, whom might they get? Perhaps a future Hall of Famer like Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones or Alex Rodriguez. Or Harold Baines or Darryl Strawberry. Or a batting champ like Joe Mauer, an MVP like Jeff Burroughs or a young thumper like Adrian Gonzalez (36 homers, 119 RBI in '08). Or they might get a hitter with more than 200 homers like Pat Burrell, Phil Nevin, Bob Horner or Rick Monday. Or they might get a useful B.J. Surhoff or Darin Erstad.

    You get it. Hitters pan out -- almost half the time. Pitchers flop or at best disappoint given their hype.

    To compare apples-to-apples, look at the hitters picked in the top five overall since '65: Reggie Jackson, Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, Dave Winfield, Thurman Munson, Joe Carter, Mark Teixeira, Barry Larkin, Dale Murphy, Matt Williams, Troy Glaus, Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman and many a Will Clark or B.J. Upton.

    Here's the question for the Nats: Do they fall for the scariest words in investing: "It's different this time."

    It's possible that Strasburg is Roger Clemens or Bob Feller. He's supposedly been clocked at 99 to 102 mph. When I saw him at the Olympics in Beijing from 100 feet away, he was throwing 93 to 97. It was the end of a long season for him, so maybe his velocity was down. But none of Cuba's hitters was overmatched by his fastball. Only his breaking ball, a fine one, locked anybody up as he allowed five hits, two runs and a homer in four innings.

    The odds say he's more likely to be Ben McDonald (78-70) than Walter Johnson. McDonald was hailed in 1991 as the greatest pitching prospect in history. That kind of buzz is starting around Strasburg as he fans 14 to 18 men a game for Tony Gwynn's San Diego State Aztecs. But the acclaim for Big Ben at LSU built longer and was louder.

    McDonald was 6 feet 7, threw in the high 90s, had a big curve, sound mechanics and -- above all -- seemed to paint almost every pitch on the black. Here was a giant, who wrestled alligators for fun, with classic stuff and pinpoint command. In his first MLB game we marveled as 33 of his first 35 pitches were strikes. I hope my column that day didn't put him directly in Cooperstown. That may have been the most impressive day of his career.

    Ben's intelligence, self-confidence and work habits were average. In other words, he didn't have the baseball equivalent of The Right Stuff that makes a test fighter pilot. Talent may get you near 150 wins -- like Benes, Belcher, Moore and Bannister. The other qualities that go into pitching greatness --the obsession, the feel for confounding hitters -- come from the mind and heart. Such intangibles can't be scouted or priced when you're facing college boys who miss your pitches by a foot.

    What, you ask, if Strasburg is the next Nolan Ryan, who threw 100 to 103 mph at 21 with a top curveball? In Ryan's first six years in the majors, the same contract length that Boras is rumored to want for Strasburg, the Express went 6-9, 6-3, 7-11, 10-14, 19-16 and 21-16. That's 69-69. Sandy Koufax was 36-40 his first six years. What sane team would pay prime-of-career free agent prices for a kid pitcher's learning years? Walter Johnson started 5-9, 14-14 and 13-25.

    I'm not opposed to signing Strasburg. There's an appropriate price for him, probably in the range of the amount paid to Price or Prior. As with any young pitcher, it's a risk. But great pitching wins titles.

    If early rumblings are correct that Boras wants to use Strasburg as the negotiating lever to blow up the game's "slotting" system for draft bonuses, then he's probably facing a tough sell. If he had a comparably praised hitter in a strong economy, maybe he could do it.

    The Nats won't comment beyond team president Stan Kasten's remarks Sunday that did not address Strasburg specifically. "And there won't be any more comments -- at all -- until after the draft," Kasten said yesterday.

    Strasburg's arm, and Boras's usual bare-knuckled but gifted negotiating, will stir comment for the next three months. But no one, including the Nats or their fans, should get a migraine over this.

    It's wise to offer $20 million a year to a hitter like Teixeira in his prime or $10 million a year to a 29-year-old slugger like Adam Dunn, who's had five straight 40-homer years. All the game's history says so.

    On the other hand, knowing the horrific track record of the best pitching prospects of the last 44 years, it's crazy to offer Strasburg much more than a Prior or Price. Deep down, Strasburg and Boras probably grasp this truth. But if they honestly don't get it, then move on. You may be catching a break.

    I wish the truth were more cheerful, just a case of sign-him-at-any-cost-and-go-to-

    the-World Series. That would be fun to write. But it's not what I've watched my whole life. Pitching phenoms were born to break your heart. That's bad enough. Don't let them break the bank, too.
    washingtonpost.com

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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    I think it's ridiculous that any player who's going to be sent to the minors for, at the very least, a year and a half could make more than 1 mil a year.

    I wish I worked in a business where I can get paid millions a year before I even prove I can make it at the level required to succeed in it.
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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    As I have said before, Bud Selig might have to step in.

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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    The same argument was made for Scott Kazmir. Too much $$, huge injury risk, not-so-bright decision. Yet look at the names picked above him who busted, while he pitched in the World Series. Is there at least one other pitcher in this draft who will have more success than Strasburg, and prove to be smarter pick? Certainly. If history is unequivocal, there will be a dozen of them. But you draft players at the current face value. Does anyone want to bet right now on some other guy instead of Strasburg? I didn't think so.

    Any fan of the teams picking behind the Nationals who says he wouldn't want Strasburg anyway because of the injury risk is just sour grapes. As if Aaron Crow or Alex White isn't equally likely to hurt his arm before he reaches the majors.

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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    Quote Originally Posted by realmofotalk View Post
    The same argument was made for Scott Kazmir. Too much $$, huge injury risk, not-so-bright decision. Yet look at the names picked above him who busted, while he pitched in the World Series. Is there at least one other pitcher in this draft who will have more success than Strasburg, and prove to be smarter pick? Certainly. If history is unequivocal, there will be a dozen of them. But you draft players at the current face value. Does anyone want to bet right now on some other guy instead of Strasburg? I didn't think so.

    Any fan of the teams picking behind the Nationals who says he wouldn't want Strasburg anyway because of the injury risk is just sour grapes. As if Aaron Crow or Alex White isn't equally likely to hurt his arm before he reaches the majors.
    It's a different argument than Kazmir IMO. Kazmir money versus this rumored Strasburg demands are two very different beasts. I don't think there would be much of an argument to NOT pick Strasburg if his demands were 20 0r even 25 million, but it seems likely that he'll want much more than that. Is he worth that much more? I don't know. Washington has a great opportunity to draft a face of the franchise. Strasburg might be it, he might be everything the scouts have said about them, but nothing with the draft is guaranteed.

    Oh and with Kazmir, many, myself included, were pumped for him to be selected by the Reds and were bitter from the moment Gruler was selected to this day since the ownership group went for the cheaper high school arm that isn't even in the game anymore (hasn't been for a few years, never even hit the high minor leagues.)

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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    Yahoo's Jeff Passan talked to Nationals acting GM Mike Rizzo, who said that he doesn't see any pitchers in the 2009 draft class jumping straight to the Majors. Knowing that Rizzo plans to draft Stephen Strasburg, the implication is that the righty won't join Washington's rotation right after signing. If you've been holding your fantasy league's #1 waiver pick for him, it's time to think about Plan B. Passan and Chico Harlan of the Washington Post both suggest the most we'd see from Strasburg would be a September cameo as part of a contractual obligation.
    Looks like he at least won't be skipping the minors. Maybe we'll get a chance to see him play at AAA-Syracuse
    Quote Originally Posted by missionhockey21 View Post
    Life: Its gots to be funky.

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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    Quote Originally Posted by NYgiantsfan5689 View Post
    Looks like he at least won't be skipping the minors. Maybe we'll get a chance to see him play at AAA-Syracuse
    Looks like he is being called up on Sunday.
    I expect the SUCrew will be there with a full report from the day he shows up at the airport.

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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    Quote Originally Posted by realmofotalk View Post
    The same argument was made for Scott Kazmir. Too much $$, huge injury risk, not-so-bright decision. Yet look at the names picked above him who busted, while he pitched in the World Series. Is there at least one other pitcher in this draft who will have more success than Strasburg, and prove to be smarter pick? Certainly. If history is unequivocal, there will be a dozen of them. But you draft players at the current face value. Does anyone want to bet right now on some other guy instead of Strasburg? I didn't think so.

    Any fan of the teams picking behind the Nationals who says he wouldn't want Strasburg anyway because of the injury risk is just sour grapes. As if Aaron Crow or Alex White isn't equally likely to hurt his arm before he reaches the majors.
    As someone who'll argue until he's blue in the face that one #1 seed stands zero chance to make it to the Super Bowl if the other #1 seed also gets there just because of the coincidental history of that pairing, I'm surprised you don't put much stock into the fact that Kevin Brown is the best pitcher in the history of the amateur draft to be drafted in the top 5.
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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    Huh? Please, stay on the same sport. You suck at debating when you bring up irrelevant crap to counter what I say.

    And no, this isn't the same as my potshots at Craig "Bust" Davis because I don't use them in such a way to argue for instance, how SD fans don't know shit about football. All I imply with them is that he sucks ass.

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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    It doesn't need to be the same sport when the same logic fits.
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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    Same logic? Or rather because it's logic from the same person?

    But anyway, Kevin Brown was pretty damn good in his prime. Why should anyone be reasonably disappointed should Strasburg plateau at KB's level?

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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    BTW, for all the complaints over the $$ that Strasburg got, nobody b-itched when the A's gave $4.25 million to Michel Ynoa, a freaking 16-year old whose prior baseball experience probably consisted of playing pick-up games in a dirt yard behind a barn.

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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    It's been widely assumed Strasburg would debut during the Nationals' June 4-10 homestand against the Reds and Pirates. But guesses have varied about the actual date of Strasburg's first game, and the June 4 game against the Reds has nearly sold out because of the assumption Strasburg would pitch that night.
    It would've been nice had Strasburg made his MLB debut against the Padres in San Diego this Saturday. It would be just as epic as AD's 296 yard game.

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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    Quote Originally Posted by realmofotalk View Post
    It would be just as epic as AD's 296 yard game.
    Huh? Please, stay on the same sport.
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    Re: Armed, but Dangerous [Stephen Strasburg]

    Quote Originally Posted by HollywoodLeo View Post
    Huh? Please, stay on the same sport.
    I realize it's an irrelevant point to baseball, but it's my own observation (yes I would enjoy a Strasburg domination akin to AD) and I'm pretty sure it was in no way used as a half-assed retort to tear down someone else's argument.

    But you've pretty much shown that you like to act the fool, so why do I even bother.

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