lead off with hatteberg! (really though)

[DirtyKash]

i don't like this because it doesn't take in account LHP/RHP splits and stuff like that

Your current runs per game average would converge towards the limit as your sample size approaches infinity. Naturally, your batters don't always face off against lefties or always against righties.

lim x = projected runs per game
x->∞

[ghettochild]

i'm talking OOTP wise because i have some players with great contact against righties but suck against lefties

[Wally Mo Pena]

i'm talking OOTP wise because i have some players with great contact against righties but suck against lefties

you could just run it twice using each players lefty/righty splits and have two optimal lineups.

[Wally Mo Pena]

here's the lineup using last year's numbers for everyone:

5.135 r/g
freel dunn larue griffey lopez EdE kearns wilson hatteberg

[ghettochild]

i actually like that lineup, just switch hatteberg with wilson and the put SP in 9 hole

[Wally Mo Pena]

i actually like that lineup, just switch hatteberg with wilson and the put SP in 9 hole

but that's one of the main points of their analyses, that putting your pitcher in the 9 spot actually hurts your team because it makes him more of a table setter for the guys at the top of your lineup. hitting the pitcher 8 should increase your offense at the top, but it's unconventional, and people just can't wrap their heads around it.

[DirtyKash]

Sure, the ninth-place hitter can set up for the top of the lineup, but so can the first place hitter. That's what the first-place hitter is there for, to set up for the heart of the order. I mean, it's just as probable that the last batter of an inning be the eighth hitter or the ninth hitter.

Hitting your pitcher eighth also means that you have to make double-switches more often, since the pitcher's spot in the order comes up sooner.

And when your team is at-bat and the pitcher's spot comes up, you'll have to use a pinch-hitter sooner than you would like. Nothing good can come of this.

I mean, I don't even want Dontrelle Willis hitting eighth. Pitchers bat ninth.

By the way, I tried out this thing with the Yankees lineup and they have Giambi batting leadoff and Jeter batting 9th. LOL. This thing needs to take player's speed into account. For real. Can't have a fast player running behind your leadoff man Giambi (or in the Reds' case, Hatteberg), you'll kill yourself on the bases.

[McKain]

The point of the lineup generator is that speed is irrelevant (or at least, minimally relevant) to how productive an offense will be.

The idea is to get men on base, get hitters at bat, get men on base, get hitters at bat, and constantly set the table for people who will hit the ball deep and either hit a homerun or a double. Since it utilizes SLG as the main measure of how good a batter a player is, and SLG is affected by homeruns and doubles (and triples) more than just attaining one base, it's obviously going to be processing along the lines of "Jason Giambi gets on base, Derek Jeter gets on base, Alex Rodriguez (assumption on my part, I'm guessing he's 3rd) hits a double, two runs score" rather than "Derek Jeter gets on base, Jason Giambi gets on base, Alex Rodriguez hits a single, Derek Jeter scores due to his speed."

or that's what it would seem to be.

plus, it's trying to maximize ABs for the guys who will get on base the most.

[Wally Mo Pena]

Sure, the ninth-place hitter can set up for the top of the lineup, but so can the first place hitter. That's what the first-place hitter is there for, to set up for the heart of the order. I mean, it's just as probable that the last batter of an inning be the eighth hitter or the ninth hitter.

Hitting your pitcher eighth also means that you have to make double-switches more often, since the pitcher's spot in the order comes up sooner.

And when your team is at-bat and the pitcher's spot comes up, you'll have to use a pinch-hitter sooner than you would like. Nothing good can come of this.

I mean, I don't even want Dontrelle Willis hitting eighth. Pitchers bat ninth.

since there are always at least three batters in an inning, having one table setter (the leadoff man) isn't as good as having 2 table setters (#9 and #1) everytime through the order after the first.

why would using a pinch hitter one batter sooner make any difference in a game?

double switches wouldn't be affected at all. You make a double switch because you want to change pitchers when the pitcher is due up in the next inning. sometimes the 8 spot will be due up and the 9 spot won't and you'll have to make one, and sometimes the 8 spot will have just come up in the last inning, and you won't have to make one where you would have to if the pitcher was 9th. It makes no difference.

and this isn't based on people sitting around wondering, "gee, what if you hit the pitcher 8th?!" As the articles describe, the formulas are modeled off of thousands of games over decades of play.

It's fine if you want to identify with the old school Jerry Narron style of ball and proclaim "pitchers bat ninth," to each there own. But the data don't support that postion.

[NFLman2033]

it all really does make sense to me, I mean later on in his career do you think Pete Rose was a prototypical leadoff hitter, speed is irrelevant when it comes to leading off, you want High OBP, you want a guy who is going to get on base leading off.. If you did this for last years lineup, i would expect Casey to be leadoff.. and also this line up makes sense because you want all your best hitters to get the most AB's.. I have never seen a problem batting a Pitcher in the 8th spot, i remember people losing their mind when STL did it, and of course LaRusa caved under and went back to batting him 9th.. but It does make sense to have another leadoff type of hitter batting in the 9th spot, to have more of an oportunity to get guys on ahead of your big hitters

[Wally Mo Pena]

gammons, who i certainly don't always agree with but i do give respect to for being a bridge between the hardcore stats guys and the mainstream baseball media, discussed having a "second leadoff hitter in the 9 spot" in his last blog, so i think the idea will start to have some more traction soon.

[redsrbetter]

I think for AL teams, they have usually thought about the rule of having a leadoff type hitter that is not quite as good as the normal leadoff guy to bat 9th. But in the NL, it has always been the pitcher.

I wonder if Gammons was mostly talking about AL teams.