rotation spots

[Wally Mo Pena]

there was some discussion here somewhere about what makes a staff ace, a #2, a #5 etc starter. someone over at redlegnation.com did a sort of confusing/sort of interestind analysis of this very same topic. He took the approach of defining the slots by averages, which i know not everyone aggrees with. Check it out if you're interested, here's what came out of it:

The breakdown was by ERA and split by league.

AL #1 SP < = 3.61
AL #2 SP 3.62 - 4.06
AL #3 SP 4.07 - 4.57
AL #4 SP 4.58 - 5.78
AL #5 SP >= 5.79

NL #1 SP < = 3.50
NL #2 SP 3.51 - 4.05
NL #3 SP 4.06 - 4.48
NL #4 SP 4.49 - 5.09
NL #5 SP >= 5.10

here's how the reds break down:

NL #2
AHarang 3.83

NL #3
BClaussen 4.21
DWilliams 4.41

NL #5
MBelisle (as a starter) 5.25
EMilton 6.47
LHudson 7.20
PWilson 7.77
ERamirez 9.31

My feeling is that you can define the #2-#5 spots, but that it doesn't work as well for the "ace" idea. An average #1 starter maybe, but not an "ace." not everyone who put's up an ERA below3.61 is an ace in my mind, but that's for another discussion.

I generally agree with the reds breakdown. harang is a solid #2, claussen and williams are pretty solid #3s. If we can pick up another #2 through a trade, and got some bounce back from milton or wilson to #3 or at least #4 form, we'd have a competent rotation.

[redsrbetter]

good stuff Wally Mo. I have never seen it broken down quite like this but I have to agree with it. It is comforting to know just how good Harang is through these standards. I hope Claussen and williams can keep it up and possibly improve to a number 2 type pitcher as well. We definitely need a number 1 type or at least another solid number 2 like Harang. makes the LaRue talk sound more profitable. But I doubt DanO has a chart like this and would go off of something as useful as stats when he selects his pitcher to go after in a trade.

I really like this though Wally, thanks man.

[Geki Ace]

I can't say I agree with how this was done. How many AL starting pitchers had ERAs of over 5.79, honestly?

[Wally Mo Pena]

by my count 42 AL starters had ERAs that high and made at least one start. Like i said, i was little confused by the way he described his methods, so i can't really attest for it.

obviously, with no upper limit on the ERA of the fifth starter you get into some shady territory. You can't really say that someone with a 10 ERA is a 5th starter, they're a minor leaguer. But that's not how he did it. I think the way he approached the fifth starter was just anyone who made starts and didn't get into the #4 class was a "#5."

[Geki Ace]

I can't say I agree with how that works. Guys making a spot start shouldn't count as a team's fifth starter, plain and simple.

[blugrssdude]

there was some discussion here somewhere about what makes a staff ace, a #2, a #5 etc starter. someone over at redlegnation.com did a sort of confusing/sort of interestind analysis of this very same topic. He took the approach of defining the slots by averages, which i know not everyone aggrees with. Check it out if you're interested, here's what came out of it:

The breakdown was by ERA and split by league.

AL #1 SP < = 3.61
AL #2 SP 3.62 - 4.06
AL #3 SP 4.07 - 4.57
AL #4 SP 4.58 - 5.78
AL #5 SP >= 5.79

NL #1 SP < = 3.50
NL #2 SP 3.51 - 4.05
NL #3 SP 4.06 - 4.48
NL #4 SP 4.49 - 5.09
NL #5 SP >= 5.10

here's how the reds break down:

NL #2
AHarang 3.83

NL #3
BClaussen 4.21
DWilliams 4.41

NL #5
MBelisle (as a starter) 5.25
EMilton 6.47
LHudson 7.20
PWilson 7.77
ERamirez 9.31

My feeling is that you can define the #2-#5 spots, but that it doesn't work as well for the "ace" idea. An average #1 starter maybe, but not an "ace." not everyone who put's up an ERA below3.61 is an ace in my mind, but that's for another discussion.

I generally agree with the reds breakdown. harang is a solid #2, claussen and williams are pretty solid #3s. If we can pick up another #2 through a trade, and got some bounce back from milton or wilson to #3 or at least #4 form, we'd have a competent rotation.

I don't think you can segregate a pitcher based on his era, there are so many more things to consider, you can actually have a number 1 starter with an era close to 5.00 and a number 5 with an era close to 3.00, it is a difficult thing to determine but in my opinion the most important situation to consider is how your starter performs when the team needs a win. And that can include days following a loss. Mario Soto, Pete Harnisch and Jose Rijo came thru big, in big games. Some might have considered Denny Neagle a number 1, but in my opinion he dropped down one slot because of this factor.