The pitching need breakdown

[redsrbetter]

Lets take a tighter look at the specifics that we need to consider when looking for possible solutions for our pitching staff. I think we can all agree that we are going to acquire a pitcher or two over the offseason. So, what do we need these pitchers to be like?

First of all, we absolutely need sinkerballer pitchers. The ball flies around too much at GABP and we need pitchers that will keep the ball down. I remember DanO figuring this out finally and it is likely he will pursue those pitchers who have a sinker.

Next, I think we should stop thinking about who would be an ace for this team but not other teams. We need something that is dominant. I know a lot of us are feeling like if we had a staff full of mediocre pitchers, we have a chance for contention. I agree with that, but if we are going to try and make a serious impact, we need someone who can dominate. Someone that will have us all feeling like we made an incredible move to get even if it means trading Dunn or Casey.

Next, of course this pitcher is going to have to be somewhat affordable and not ancient as dirt either.

And finally we obviously need to look through organizations that are in need of outfielders or at least a big bat. Those teams are going to have to have an awesome sinkerball pitcher that they are willing to trade.

So who do you guys think fits the bill for this?

Brad Penny?

[Kingdom]

Ask real nice and maybe Santa will put Johan Santana under your tree!

[redsrbetter]

Thats impossible man. No way the Twins even think about doing that.

[Fishercat]

I'll be honest, I'm not convinced a sinkerballer is the answer. Felipe Lopez is likely the best offensive SS in the NL...but his fielding (from what I've read and seen) leaves a lot to be desired (as do the rest of their fantastic hitters like Dunn and even Griffey).

If I'm the Reds, I'm looking for a guy who has a good Balls kept out of play average (HR+BB+HBP+K)/(TBF) even if he got unlucky. On the whole, once you get past those four factors (low # of HRs, low # of walks, low # of HBP, lots of K's), the pitchers even out since balls hit into the field of play are very luck based, and even more dangerous in this field. The amount of balls hit into the field of play ((H-HR)/(Outs+Hits-HR-K) is random. I'm going to take an example from Alan Schwarz here.

Tell me, if you were GMing a team, which of these two real-life pitchers would you want for next year?
A: 16-9, 3.65 ERA, 11.5 BR/9 IP, 27 years old
B: 12-11, 4.43 ERA, 12.6 BR/9 IP, 36 years old

Obviously A had the better year and seems likely to have a better year. However, what if I told you that B had 30% of his balls hit in play go for hits (a high number) while A only had 26% of the balls hit into the field go for hits (a low number).

If you assume average, equal luck, this is what their seasons looked like

A: 14-10, 4.11, 1.36 BR/IP
B: 12-11, 4.62, 14.7 BR/IP

In 2000?
A: 16-11, 4.17 ERA
B: 4-19, 6.14 ERA

B's swing was really big from lucky to unlucky, but it is something to consider, and hey, according to the book, Voros McCracken won his rotissorie league three years in a row with the formula that he invented.

[Saber]

The Reds don't need sinkerball pitchers. They need good pitchers.

Also, their defense sucks.

[redsrbetter]

very comvincing and you have a definite point fisher. I like that formula a lot and it is the first I have seen of it. I just think that we need some pitchers who can keep the ball down and minimize all the HR hit at GABP. We have to get a different taste from someone who is the opposite of Milton. I would much rather go after a sinkerballer than one that can strike out at least 6 batters per game, but gives up the long ball a lot. I guess with the absence of Ortiz, we will look a lot better anyways, but we need a counter for Milton night.

What sort of pitchers fit the bill for that formula anyway. Oswalt, Clemens, Santana? I think only the elite can make things like that happen. And those guys just are not affordable especially for the Reds in this park. Pitchers don't want to come here. Awesome thoughts though and lets get some more going.

+rep.

[Saber]

Schwarz is cute and all, waruv, but you know as well as I do that Voros "Phil" McCracken has had to revise his old studies over the last few years. "Hit luck" may have high variability, but, like batting average, it is still influenced by talent and ability.

While a pitcher with groundball tendencies is very helpful for determination of homerun rates, honestly, just find someone with good peripherals who isn't the chuck and duck type. In other words, the only worthwhile compromise here is getting pitchers who may sacrifice strikeouts to prevent homeruns, as opposed to high strikeout pitchers who cough up bombs.

No, that does not mean Danny Kolb.

[Fishercat]

Danny Kolb would be a perfect fit in the Reds bullpen, what are you talking about?

The Reds simply need good pitching, as obvious as that statement is. I'd still prefer to keep it off the field of play for the Reds as they do have some pretty horrid defensive players out there, but Saber's right, with certain pitchers you can throw out the cute stuff and just rely on what you see.

[Saber]

Nate Silver from BP on The Pinstriped Blog:

Using my little ERA estimator....

Let's start with a league average starting pitcher who strikes out 130 batters in 900 faced, walks 65, and has a GB/FB ratio of 1.15. I estimate that his ERA will be 4.52.

If we give him an excellent strikeout rate - 200 strikeouts rather than 130 - his ERA drops to 3.47.

If we give him an excellent walk rate - 30 walks rather than 65 - his ERA drops to 3.90.

If we give him an excellent groundball rate - a 2.00 GB/FB ratio, rather than 1.15 - his ERA drops to 4.16.

So I'd say that it's strikeouts, walks, and groundballs, pretty clearly in that order.

[redsrbetter]

Thanks saber. This also makes a lot of sense and completely throws off my sinkerballer thought. I guess all I have to say now is, if we cannot get a strikeout type pitcher, we will need one that can get ground outs. the guys with high K/9 are usually the ones that command a 9 million dollar salary and they are the ones that will command even more at GABP because of the park.

These are the things that DanO has to inquire over the offseason and I bet he hasnt even gotten as far as to know what kind of pitcher he wants. I like the strikeout guy but I fear he will be too expensive. If not, lets grab him first priority. But if he were too expensive, we have to llok at plan B which is a sinkerballer. I would rather chance an EdE error than a HR.