Kearns, Dunn, Or Wily Mo

[Wally Mo Pena]

Since DanO didn't trade griffey this year, you have to doubt that he'll try to move him this winter.

That leaves Kearns, Dunn, and Wily Mo, and one has to be shipped out.

The only reason you would trade Dunn would be money, and with Graves and others coming off the books, i think it's safe to believe that a deal will be made. How long and for how much, who knows, but dunn stays.

So now it comes to Kearns of Pena, and here's my two cents.

Kearns this year has hit .237 .327 .436 .763 with 37 xbhits (15 HR) and 61 RBI in 100 games.

Wily Mo has hit .255 .304 .497 .801 with 37 xbh (20 HR) and 53 RBI adjusted to 100 games.

Pretty darn similar. Kearns gets on more, pena has more HR power, kearns makes up for it a little with xbhits, a little more with his ability to drive runs in, and certainly more with his defense.

The pure OPS guys might give Wily the edge, people who look at defense more and like situation stats like RBI might give kearns the edge, but either way, it's dead close.

The problem with just looking at the numbers though, is it can lead you to believe that you are comparing players who are the same in other ways, and in this case, that is not at all true.

Kearns is 25 and has spent the appropriate time in the minor leagues to have developed. He has a long injury history and a documented poor attitude (though this may have turned around), and he makes $930,000.

Wily Mo on the other hand is 23 and didn't get the proper seasoning in the minors, so it's fair to say that he's more like the normal 21 or 22 year old, in other words much earlier on in his development. It has been reported that he works very hard, even though he has rarely gotten regular playing time, and he makes $440,000.

This tells me that it should be kearns who goes. Wily mo could be signed to 5 year deal this winter for not much more than 15 mil, and in that time, if he progresses like a normal 22 yr old, we would have the most cost effective power hitter in the league.

You have to think about Wily like EdE. If EdE came up and had an OPS over .800, people would be freaking out over him. Not because that's the best anyone has ever done, but what it would say about his potential and likely development. That's Wily right now.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I would trade Pena and keep Kearns, because all past indications said Kearns would be better, and I still think he will be next year. He has been good since his return from the minors. I'm not sure about his attitude. I haven't heard any of his teammates complain, and although there have been a few instances where he has "whined", it hasn't really seemed to be very severe. I also wouldn't say Kearns is prone to injury, because all of his problems have been as a result of the Ray King jump.

[Wally Mo Pena]

kearns had pretty serious injury trouble in the minors too, and he doesn't seem to do rehab very well, since all of his injuries end up taking longer to heal than predicted, like the shoulder or the thumb.

granted, some injuries can't be avoided (like the king flop) and i'm not holding it against the guy.

Both major cincy papers have reported that kearns has had run ins with teammates over his lack of effort and his prima donna attitude at both the major and minor league levels. This last time seems down seems to be the exception, which is good news for the future i think, but doesn't wipe everything clean.

kearns has done better since coming back hitting .250 .347 .477 .823, and if you take his numbers over a whole season he'd have about 30 doubls about 30 HR's and more than 100 RBI, so you certainly can't complain too much about that.

and wily hasn't done well in the second half.

which raises another point, who could we get the most for? I believe that Wily still has more upside than Kearns, but at this point i think that we could get more for Kearns, so in my opinion it would be a win win to trade him. We get the player we want and more in trade.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I'm not arguing because I might have missed it, but I don't remember seeing anything about Kearns having run-ins with teammates over a lack of effort and a bad attitude. If you have any stories that indicate that, I would gladly retract my comment on that issue.

[Cincy]

None... Trade Casey to NYM.

[Wally Mo Pena]

John Fay says:

With Ken Griffey Jr. officially out for the year and Sean Casey all-but-officially out for the year, Wily Mo Peña is going to get a chance to play center field on a daily basis the rest of the year.

"Wily Mo is going to get an opportunity," Reds manager Jerry Narron said. "I think he'd prefer to play center than one of the corner positions."

Peña would seem to be the odd man out - if the Reds are going to trade an outfielder and Narron has a major say in who goes.

Narron gave Peña one of his best lukewarm compliments.

"I see Wily Mo trying," Narron said.

Narron makes no secret that he likes players who play the game well fundamentally. Peña pales in comparison to Austin Kearns in that regard.

Peña's bat is not the problem. He went into Thursday hitting .262 with 18 home runs and 49 RBI in 294 at-bats. His on-base plus slugging (.813) was 44 points higher than Kearns'.

Peña is only 23, but he hasn't shown great improvement defensively or as a base-runner. Part of that is he has had to learn the game in the majors since former GM Jim Bowden traded for Peña, knowing he had to be in the majors by the time he was 21.

Peña played only 105 games above the Single-A level before getting promoted to the big leagues for good.

[CincyRedsFan30]

It sure sounds like the team might move Pena. They don't sound overly high on him.