Despite big bats, Reds half a team
Column by The Post's Lonnie Wheeler
First of all, it's hard to win championships in a quirky ballpark. Ask the Cubs. Ask the Rockies. Ask the Red Sox fans, who were fully prepared for last year to never happen.
Great American doesn't look like a quirky Ball Park. It looks, in fact, patently unquirky, sort of Middle American Mediocre, in an eclectic, comfortable kind of way. But the thing plays like a bad boy, as Eric Milton and Ramon Ortiz, et al, will be pleased to corroborate.
Adam Dunn could hit a ball out of any park, including Kentucky Horse - I mean, standing at home plate in Cincinnati - but his 275 pounds are put together just right (or just left, actually, an important point) for our taxpayer palace. With healthy hamstrings, Ken Griffey Jr. is a classic Great American, as well.
The question this begs is whether the Reds really do have the best lineup in the National League, as would be suggested by the fact that theirs has scored more runs than any other. That's what a lineup is supposed to do, after all. Cincinnati's may not be beautifully balanced or particularly opportunistic, but it beefs up a box score. Essentially, this is a happenstance of homers.
What we're leading up to is an assessment of the talent on hand, for which it is necessary to determine whether the big numbers are truly a function of big batters, or whether they benefit disproportionately from big breezes (or whatever it is that carries baseballs to the distant climes of The Gap).
The data show that, combining both teams, Reds games involve an average of 2.4 home runs on the road and 3.2 at home, suggesting that Great American increases a player's power by 33 percent. Similarly, it makes a Cincinnati pitcher that much more susceptible to the long ball when his back is to the state line.
The point is, we have to understand the ballpark before we can understand the ball club. If the Reds appear tilted toward the hitting side, it's partly because their playing field is so profoundly uneven.
That said, they still need pitchers. With the trade deadline looming at the end of the week, it's still power that they possess for peddling potential, and pitching that remains the priority. No matter how many currents and alleys and hyper-friendly fences you factor in, the Reds still score more runs than any other team in the loop, and surrender more, besides.
It would be a mistake, however, to infer from these facts that such as Dunn should be traded. He is, by this accounting, number two on the list of whom the Reds should retain as their core for the next several seasons.
Surpassing him would be only Felipe Lopez, who has fast become the most potent-hitting shortstop in the league. Manager Jerry Narron stated the other day that Lopez's batting prowess will soon qualify him as a third-place batter in practically any order. As shortstops go, that's gem-like.
Then there's the tall Texan whose home run Sunday was his 28th of a stellar season, and incidentally won the game, 3-2. In such respects, Dunn's timing is not as imprecise as some people make it out to be.
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Originally Posted by CincyRedsFan30
