Prospectus on FeLo

[Wally Mo Pena]

Cincinnati Reds: In yesterday's All-Star Game, the baseball world finally got to meet Felipe Lopez, the Reds' representative to the midsummer classic, and he singled in his only at-bat.

It's been a long road to Comerica Park for Lopez. Back in 2001, he was rushed to The Show to take over third base for the Blue Jays. After the need-based initiation that season, Lopez's prospects were given the roller coaster treatment: first he fell out of favor in Toronto, then he was hailed as Barry Larkin's heir apparent in Cincy, then he came dangerously close to falling behind Juan Castro and Rich Aurilia on the Reds' depth chart. In the process, Lopez see-sawed between the minors and majors, getting more than 1,000 Triple-A plate appearances and risking the dreaded "Quadruple-A player" tag. Beyond the question of his ability, there were rumors of attitude problems, which were also preventing Lopez from sticking at the big-league level. But, as we mentioned in Baseball Prospectus 2003 "Lopez could be a special player if someone can light a fire under him."

Well, this year, Lopez must be bunking with Johnny Storm. His .292 EqA and 32.2 VORP lead all NL shortstops. Batting left-handed, the switch-hitter is wrecking the ball to the tune of .329/.376/.614 with 30 extra-base hits in 226 PA. It's no stretch of the imagination to call him the best shortstop in the NL this year, even though that would be as much a comment on the weakened state of the position as a comment on Lopez.

Still, there are some troubling signs mixed in with all this good news. That amazing performance against right-handed pitching means that Lopez is scuffling against lefties: 659 OPS in 90 or so plate appearances, with just four extra base hits. This would be a reversal of Lopez's career trend--since 2002, Lopez has hit 127 points of OPS higher against lefties. Also, the Great American Ballpark is playing a huge role in Lopez's season: Lopez has posted a 990 OPS and hit 11 of his 14 home runs at home against a 770 OPS on the road.

More disturbing than those splits is Lopez's flagging defense. Our defensive translations have Lopez nine runs worse than an average shortstop, with a Rate2 of 85. Now, we all know that a strong offensive shortstop can be successful despite weak defense, but taken together, it looks like Lopez might still have some rough edges to iron out before we can declare him a star.

Would that the Reds, as a whole, could say the same. The Reds haven't ranked higher than 25th on the Prospectus Hit list since early April. It will be interesting to see if they can (or will) get pitching in return for Joe Randa by the trade deadline, and unblock the way for prospect Edwin Encarnacion. Beyond that, with $39MM already committed to seven players on next year's payroll, Cincy might not have the flexibility to make many changes this season.

[missionhockey21]

But, as we mentioned in Baseball Prospectus 2003 "Lopez could be a special player if someone can light a fire under him."

Interesting comment. We all know Lopez had the talent but I wonder if bringing in Aurilia like the Reds did helped to light that fire. Obviously that really wasn't the Reds intention of bringing Aurilia in (as shown by their near fanboy love for him) but it could of helped.

It's no stretch of the imagination to call him the best shortstop in the NL this year, even though that would be as much a comment on the weakened state of the position as a comment on Lopez.

I think that's BS personally. Lopez has EXTEMELY solid numbers. MVP like? Maybe not, but it's nothing worth dissing like that.

More disturbing than those splits is Lopez's flagging defense. Our defensive translations have Lopez nine runs worse than an average shortstop, with a Rate2 of 85. Now, we all know that a strong offensive shortstop can be successful despite weak defense, but taken together, it looks like Lopez might still have some rough edges to iron out before we can declare him a star.

I really don't care, his defense is improved this year and to me that's all that matters.

[volzok]

Interesting comment. We all know Lopez had the talent but I wonder if bringing in Aurilia like the Reds did helped to light that fire. Obviously that really wasn't the Reds intention of bringing Aurilia in (as shown by their near fanboy love for him) but it could of helped.

I agree with you to an extent here. I think bringing in Aurilia helped the situation, but I really think letting Larkin go and saying its you or Machado was probably the beginning of the preparation for Lopez.

I really don't care, his defense is improved this year and to me that's all that matters.

I totally agree here. I think as continues to be solid with the bat he will work harder to become a good defensive player as well. Its not like he lacks the talent to be good with the glove, he just needs more chances to learn how to totally play the position at the major league level.

[Geki Ace]

Lopez hasn't just been the best SS in the NL, he's been the second-best SS in all of baseball this year. His defense is, in a word, inconsistent, but he certainly has the tools to be successful defensively.

[redsrbetter]

Thing is, none of us really seemed to expect Lopez to be this solid this soon. I was still looking for him to come along slowly. But it seems that he did get a fir lit and it is smoking right out of his crack. Some people are still trying to say that Felo is in a fluke and is just real lucky right now. I know better than that because he has really learned how to hit the ball where it is pitched. He has a lot more pop than expected and honestly looks to be like a 5-tool type player. Name one tool that he really does not have. Don't say his glove either, because while I agree that he needs a little improvement, he is leaps and bounds from where he was. I say by next season, he will be well known.