Honestly, this team could be very good in 2006 if.....

[Cincy]

the payroll stays the same.

So many contracts will be coming off the books.

Graves 6.5M
Dunn 4.6M (Probably will get traded)
Ortiz 4.3-4.4M
Randa 3.5M
Larue 3M (This one is a maybe, 50/50 chance he'll stay/go)
DJ 2.87M

So that comes to a total of about 22M to 25M.

Additionally, I believe there are only 4 Reds eligible for arbitration... WMP, Kearns, Harang, and Freel. (5 if you count Larue)

I would expect WMP to get about 2M, Kearns 1.5M, Harang 2M, and Freel 1.3M. So that comes out to about 7M.

So that would leave us with 15M-18M to spend. It could become more if we could get rid of Casey and/or Milton.

[redsrbetter]

I have been thining along those same lines Cincy. I am glad you brought that up. There really should be a lot of freed up money left for FA pick ups this off season. Question is, did Lindner make enough from revenue with the way this team has been performing? If not, he will look to cut the payroll once again and probably pocket that extra $20 million.

We have to blame this whole thing on O'Brien too. He may have figured out a way to get Lindner to open his wallet, but he did not make the right moves. One thing I have learned from DanO is that I have to really look close at his decisions. He just does not know how to put a team together. The weaknesses of Milton and Ortiz have been highly exploited and you can blame DanO for not looking deep enough at their makeup. He made a pitcher that is really no better than anyone that we already had a big time money making, ace touting, same HR giving, losing pitcher. Milton is essentially the same pitcher with a lot more money. It is time to move a lot more then just the manager and pitching coach.

Back to what Cincy was saying. If Carl and Allen do get wise enough to fire DanO and realize he was a bad hire, we may have a fighting chance to get a new GM in who could convince Lindner that we need that $20 million. If we keep DanO, we would probably lose Dunn and Casey and not be able to see that money that we freed up losing them because Lindner would not trust DanO to spend it the right way. Why should he? In that case alone, why is DanO still here?

[AdamDunn#44]

the pitching still sucks

how does the team get better by trading its best player(dunn) and trading a good catcher with no replacement behind it.

[Cincy]

Simple, free agents....

The bottomline is we need to trade/free up money for pitching. With that, our offense might suffer slightly. But the fact is, we are last in the NL in pitching and second or third best in the NL in offense. So we need to even these two fields out.

Anywyas, our offense would still be above average in 06' with the following lineup:

1. Freel 2b
2. Lopez ss
3. Casey 1b
4. Junior cf
5. WMP lf
6. Kearns rf
7. EE 3b
8. FA catcher

[redsrbetter]

I would keep LaRue for sure. A Dunn trade could release us from having to go through arbitration with him. But I say keep him and try and trade Casey or Milton along with Randa. Then we have getting rid of Weber to add to the already mentioned Graves and DJ money freed up. No matter what, we have Dunn kept and freed up money this way. We would probably get some pitching prospects in the middle of all the trades as well.

If I were to start over with this team, I would keep Lopez and Pena first and foremost. Then Dunn, Freel, EdE and Kearns would have to be my next to hold on to. That leaves me with the ability to rid Casey and Griffey if possible. Griffey probably would not be possible, so he would stay as well. I would also sign LaRue since there are no better options at catcher. That give me this:

Freel 2B
Lopez SS
Dunn 1B
Pena LF
Griffey CF
Kearns RF
Encarnacion 3B
LaRue C
Casey (traded) - gives me $7.8 million

Thats a great lineup right there. Here is my bench

Olmedo SS/INF
Cruz OF
Stratton OF
Valentin C (has not been too bad this year)

With Graves, DJ, and Randa not being payed from us anymore, I would have $12.8 million. Add Casey's 7.8 and Weber's 0.6 freed up contract and I have $21.2 million.

With that $21 million, the pitching could get crazy. Here is what I am looking at:

Best FA ace I could get $10 million
Harang
Milton
Wilson
Claussen/Hudson

Mercker
Weathers
Wagner
Coffey
Booker
Best FA closer I could get $8 million
use $3 million more on more bullpen help

[Cincy]

I agree with what you said more RRB.

The only thing I disagree with you on is Hudson. This guy should not whatsoever be in the Reds future. And by the numbers, some people might say Claussen is having a better year than Harang.

[redsrbetter]

I think Claussen is actually way better than I make him out to be. I really had such high expectations for him and that may have ruined it. I just wish that one of these guys could be far ahead of the rest. That guy was Harang during the first quarter of the season, but he eventually came back down to Earth. I also put Milton and Wilson above Claussen for next season. Milton may finally be getting something together although he may be the biggest dissapointment in baseball so far this season. And after Wilson's surgery, he may get back to his 98 mph hard throwing days. He already knows how to be a good control type pitcher, and with the extra velocity, he could be huge next season. But that is a lot of maybes. So thats my rotation.

[AdamDunn#44]

what?????????

wilson back to throwing 98 after surgery???????? wow! if anything he will throw slower. surgery old age and bad arm do not equal throwing harder. wilson is done.

[redsrbetter]

I am saying this on the premise that Kremcheck aknowledged that Wilson had this ailing problem for 3 years. Thats when he come off the DL after his last surgery. And since then, he has not been throwing hard. He just never fully recovered from his injuries. Hopefully they can bring back the Wilson of the past.

[Sea Ray]

Are you sure Kearns will be arbitration eligible? He's not earning major league service time down in Louisville.

Wilson's not going back to 98MPH. If we're lucky we'll get 91 out of him.

[Geki Ace]

I honestly don't think I want Wilson back next year. I just can't see him being effective enough to be worth it in the rotation. The organization would be better off giving money to Dunn than signing a big FA pitcher, but we know that isn't going to happen. Dunn'll probably warrant something in the range of ten million per year, and I say we give that to him and pass on a pitcher. If the club can look good in the second half, Lindner might be willing to put a little more money into it, and if we get rid of O'Brien and make some smart decisions, we could keep Dunn and sign a few young guys to do well at pitcher. We don't need an ace, we just need some guys that can put up ERAs between 3.50 and 4.50, which isn't horribly difficult to obtain if we're sneaky about it. I can see contention without big losses next year if we get the payroll up to 70 million and make some good trades this year at the deadline. I'd love to pick up Lohse for Randa, and I'd be willing to see Kearns or Pena go to the Indians for something.

[redsrbetter]

Man, I am stupid! I forgot that we would have to sign contracts to guys that are on their final year of thir contract. That means Dunn and about $10 million. So, whipe out the $10 million dollar ace I was talking about. DanO has a lot of work ahead of him.

[Cincy]

Dunn will probably get about 8.5M-9M next year.

So that's why I think we'll trade him.

[Dunn#44]

Dunn will probably get about 8.5M-9M next year.So that's why I think we'll trade him.

That is why i also think that they will trade him because of how much he can demand in arbitration.

[Geki Ace]

The Reds should make a serious run at trying to sign Dunn to a long term deal. He'll have more value with the team than if he was traded, and though we could land a top-notch pitching prospect for him, I just don't like trading someone who you know is going to dominate for the next decade for a starter who will be an ace if we're lucky.