Where I think we are at

[redsrbetter]

Castellini has promised a winner. Has he delivered? Well, not exactly. When you are the owner of a sports franchise and you promise to deliver a championship and later rephrase it to producing a contender, you still send the message that you will open the wallet if need be.

Castellini has delivered a winning mechanism in the front office. He dabbled with a few expirements and didn't like the way things were going, so he changed things up bringing in more experienced pieces. Some may consider Jocketty an asset, while others consider him a possibility. But I haven't heard the usual cries of how the Reds GM is simply going through the motions. We have cried about that over many of the past regimes. But Castellini heard our cries and answered. He also looked for experience when hiring Dusty Baker. And some may feel like this is another expirement gone wrong. Perhaps he isn't the right fit. But do we really know right now?

When Dusty was hired, we all feared he would favor veterans over the young up and comers. He proved us wrong last year when giving the young nucleus every opportunity to succeed. With the exception of Corey Patterson, Dusty was pretty fair last year in given opportunity. We also feared that he would make pitcher's arms fall off. And that is still up for debate. Look no further than the Reds ace Aaron Harang last year for confirmation of the possibility.

Today, we should be a little more comfortable with Dusty. For now, Patterson is no longer a part of this team (Hopefully Tavares doesn't replace him). And we will have to wait and see if he learned his lesson with Harang last year.

So what do we have to look forward to? I believe we are exactly where we need to be. I think this team is not a contender as Castellini has promised, but I see that there is a plan in place. Perhaps the plan has taken longer than expected, but as said above, some experiments have gone wrong. Right now, I believe the front office is made up of solid and experienced personnel that will help make the best decision for this club moving forward.

The primary focus is bringing in a right handed outfield bat. Jermaine Dye would be an amazing help, but ask yourself, is it worth the cost? Getting experience over potential would be the answer for a team one move away. But this team is too young to be in that category. Yes, there is a ton of talent on the roster, but are we as talented as a similar team like Tampa Bay? Perhaps, but they had to have everything line up perfectly in order to get where they were last season.

With the addition of Dye and the loss of Bailey, would this team really contend? We would have to see many players improve on their numbers from last year. Sure, we should expect Bruce and Votto and possibily even Encarnacion to improve. But how often does it really work out that way?

I think this team is close, but not one player away close. If the team does make a trade for Dye (which is the absolute best option for an affordable RH bat), then I believe we still would need some more pieces. I think this is exactly where Jocketty's mind is at as well.

If Castellini told Jocketty that this is the year, which would mean he would open his wallet, then I think we would have seen Dye come over already. But Jocketty still has a budget to consider and knows that bringing in Dye or even a FA bat like Burrell would be the final move for the offseason. He also knows that this wouldn't be enough.

Perhaps the best way of looking at this roster is by keeping the young core together and watching them mature. Seeing who does climb toward their potential and who busts. Let's see if Volquez is for real. Let's see if Harang can bounce back. Let's see if Cueto can improve. We are all banking on these things to happen, but how many times have we seen them not happen?

As Reds fans, you should know. Gruler anyone? Howington? Bailey? Kearns? Larson? Wagner? I can go on and on. Maybe lady luck has changed and we might be able to see two out of every three young stud turn out to be something worth while. But we can't bank on all of it panning out. And that is what we would have to do if we traded for Dye and counted our blessings.

I'm trying not to be pessimistic here, but I am really thinking for the better of the team versus the better of 2009 at this point.

Thoughts?

[Slyder]

In my eyes Dye is a waste of assets if we have to give up Bailey. That would be the quintesencial definition of saleing low. This team has too many "what ifs" as it is right now and Dye could just as easily become another expensive "just move him" like Griffey last year. If youre going to trade Bailey at least try and get someone from his generation in return. Bowden has his usual collection of 100 5 tool outfielders why not see if you could get Elijah Dukes or Lastings Milledge from him. Both are under 25 like Bailey both have a bit of potential and could be valuable for many years or hold resale value should both succeed in Cincy with the bat and keep their noses clean. Not sure if theyre considered more CF or LF options.

We are relying on Gonzalez being healthy and productive for the first time since he's been here or Keppinger, whos range has been questioned by most, to hold down arguably the most important position on the field.

Edwin continues to be the enigma where he goes from being loved one moment for a play to wanting to run him out of town in the next. Internet has the Reds as being interested in Atkins... why he's a more expensive and older Edwin?

Last year Baker showed he could not be trusted with pitchers. That dark day in JUNE cost us our most consistant pitcher since arguably Rijo and knocked Volquez out of synch for a while. For an opportunity to win a game in JUNE when were already out of it. You see Duhhhsty run guys like Volquez back out there for "one more inning" to add more pitches on the arms of young guys.

We spent the first 2 months of the year with Corey Patterson Leading off. Sickening any reds fan with half an understanding of any stats in baseball, because Patterson "was fast". We saw (until traded) Griffey hitting 3rd due to "respect" inspite of his swing and results not meriting him hitting 3rd.

We saw Brandon Phillips miscast as a cleanup hitter and it showed in his down year. We saw our two most productive hitters hitting anywhere from 5th to 7th regardless of how Griffey and Phillips were swinging the bat.

We saw a healthy Dickerson who every scout has said is reallly good CF playing LF so that Duhhsty could play Corey Mendoza I mean Patterson in CF and make his trademark 1-5 every night. Im far from confident that this team will ever do anything with Duhhhsty at the helm. Toward the end of the year yes we had a crap ton of injuries (and no one was a perfect fit) but ANYONE would have been a better option than Corey Patterson hitting .200ish going into August and September. Needless to say Im far from appeased about Duhhsty calling the shots.

Our radio guys have been quoted as saying that Norris Hopper should be the starting LF when Dunn was still here. Is this entire franchise that backwards thinking that OBP is not even brought up when considering lineups or acquisitions? We saw what Duhhhsty and other managers thought of it with the use of Dunn.

Toward the end of the year we release David Ross and give a career Minor Leaguer an opportunity to be the starting catcher. Our pitching staff throws the only complete games of the season with him calling the shots and the pitching staff era as a whole improve. So whats the "big acquistion" we go out and trade for a guy who makes Paul Bako's d look good making 8 mil this year. This team acquires a catcher that quit on the team he's coming from because they weren't competing... what happens if this team gets on a cold streak will he quit just as quickly on the Reds? Granted no one could be as bad as Paul Bako with the bat was for us but Hernandez was ATTROCIOUS on D. You dont bring a guy like him in if he's going to be your backup, youre paying him starters money and now Hannigan goes from having an opportunity to win the job outright to pidgeoned holed as #2 catcher who might place twice a week. WHY?!?! Why not use this season to see if he could be our Brad Ausmus, why not see if you couldnt save the assets and money by going after anyone of a number of guys who could ressurect careers that played in SD (Bard) that have a track record of success without having to give up even more than just the money?

Our "big plan" now includes the possibility to reintroduce Corey Patterson into the clubhouse in the form of Willy Tavares. Only difference is Tavares had his career year in 07 where as Patterson has never had one. He will likely pick up where Patterson left off in Duhhhsty's eyes because 1) he's fast and 2) he's aggressive. Needless to say Tavares would be an upgrade but unless he's hitting upwards of .300 his OBP is going to be lacking for an offense that is full of non-obp friendly bats.

And so the same thing every year, the Reds get an assortment of old guys to try and sale that "this is our year" and we continue to throw assets out the window in the false pretense that we're "there". Just to be let down by a sub 500 April and May, some heads roll but nothing really changes with the philosophy and Reds fans are left wandering... when will be our time?

I hate being Mr. Pessimistic but Ive seen this story too many times to get my hopes up again. If Im wrong I will gladly eat all the crow thrown my way and acknowledge how wrong I was, but there was/is way too many ? for this team to be competitive in 09. Don't waste the asset on guys like Dye who dont have a lot left in the tank.

[Kingdom]

03 and 04 were not so terrible for Patterson.. half a career year followed by the career year. Heh.

If you get Dye on the cheap, it wouldn't hurt, but more often than not, Dye follows up a good year with a down year and that's not what you guys need. I think he'd hit well in that park though?

[Slyder]

Feel free to bash my post.

[redsrbetter]

All excellent points guys. And to be honest, I am right there with you Slyder. I too have seen this story too many times. I am a bit more encouraged about the management of this team though. Or maybe, I have been so tired of lackluster field management that I let Dusty slide on a lot of things last year. Your posts brought back a lot of memories that I simply forgot about. I gave up on this team really early last year and still watched so I could see our young guys mature.

As I said before, I think a lot of expeiments have gone wrong and perhaps Dusty is on the hot seat? I am so tired of having to see new managers come in every single year only to watch them make the exact same mistakes. Thankfully, this team is young enough to need a mentor and not a friend. Dusty doesn't have to feel the need to "respect" anyone anymore.

Needless to say, we will be spending our season next year complaining about his lineup construction once again just as we have with every manager pre-Dusty. And I am definitely thinking that even if a new manager came in, we would still hate some of the things he does. I am tired of being pissed off.

Maybe we hang up the thought of contention this year, and do what we did the second half of last season. Which is sit back and watch this team learn how to play baseball.

Unless we acquire a big middle of the order bat, we are not going to go anywhere this year. And if we do get that bat, we will have to get lucky to see real results. But seriously, the options are getting slimmer by the day. Baldelli is our best option? Although I like him a bit, he is a major question mark. Tavares? Give me a break. Burrell? He would be a good fit in my opinion, but would he be enough? I say absolutely not. Manny? No way they spend that kind of money and even if they did, no way other teams don't match our offer, and even if they didn't, there is no way Manny would want to play in Cincy.

Realistically, where is this big bat going to come from? We are now in a battle with Tampa Bay and Boston for this bat. Tell me what free agent would rather play for the Reds.