Stat sticklers favor Wagner as closer

[missionhockey21]

Stat sticklers favor Wagner as closer
Graves' numbers declining from previous seasons

Analysis by John Erardi
Enquirer staff writer

After the Reds blew a six-run ninth-inning lead Monday night against the St. Louis Cardinals, I was curious how closer Danny Graves' numbers this year compared to years past.

I wondered what the stats would say about Graves, heir apparent Ryan Wagner and young relievers in general used as closers.

So, I consulted numbers guru Greg Gajus. He and his stat-crunching brethren are not impressed with Graves having converted eight of nine save opportunities this year. They say a meltdown like Monday's was inevitable given Graves' other numbers.

Gajus admitted that the sample size for this year is small, but that Graves' stats indicate a significant dropoff from years past.

The numbers gurus believe the time is right for a flip-flop of roles for Graves and Wagner. (Of course, Reds brass would have to get past the sticker shock of having a $6 million setup man.) Immediately after the Reds' Monday night meltdown, here is what the numbers showed:

Click here for the comparison

[CincyRedsFan30]

Most knew the Graves Collapse was coming.

[redsrbetter]

Nicely done. Hopefully Miley and DanO sees this soon. But I bet they already know that the numbers are something close to this. It is obvious that Wagner is far better than Graves. So, in that retrospect, I think Graves will continue to be the closer because they have commited to it. Once Graves blows about 3 saves in a row, it might then become a question to Miley. But even then, we may hear that Miley is still expecting Graves to some how come out of it.

[missionhockey21]

Really, unless Graves just bombs like 7 or 8 saves in a row, I can't see them stopping him from closing. I think this for two reasons:

They want to get their moneys worth of his salary (or in this case, try to.)
And they are hoping he will be a commodity (at least somewhat of one) at the deadline since I doubt they will resign him.

[Dunn#44]

They say in that article in the paper that the reds dont want to make Graves a set up man because of his contract. The way that i see that is that it would be better to have a 6 million dollar setup man than a 6 million dollar closer that blows alot of there chances.