The painful truth: Trade Soriano

[Giants666]

Who says Washington isn't a baseball town?
Sports talk radio listeners have heard a barrage of callers debating the merits of re-signing Nationals slugger Alfonso Soriano versus trading him during the last week.
It's the kind of talk normally expected in cities like Boston and Chicago, but now it's come here. And for that, you can thank (or blame) Soriano and the Nationals for their stunning late May/early June turnaround.
All of a sudden, everyone's asking the same question: Can we keep Soriano, please?
Let's cut right to the chase: No.
Sorry if that was a tad harsh, but unfortunately it's the truth. As tempting as the thought of re-signing Soriano might be, it's just not likely to happen. Let's explain ...
Soriano, a pending free agent at the end of the season, is having a career year, one in which he is on pace for 58 home runs and 38 stolen bases. Those kind of numbers are going to command big bucks in the offseason, perhaps something in the range of five years and $65 million.
Sound a little outrageous? Not really. Consider some recent long-term deals signed by the game's biggest sluggers: David Ortiz of the Red Sox (four years, $52 million), J.D. Drew of the Dodgers (five years, $55 million), Paul Konerko of the White Sox (five years, $60 million) and Vladimir Guerrero of the Angels (five years, $70 million). Soriano easily falls into that category.
So it's going to take a boatload of cash to keep him in a curly W cap. So what, some say? Give him the money, he's worth it.
Don't forget the other part of the equation: Soriano has to want to re-sign. At the moment, it's not clear if he does. He's made some vague statements about liking the city and the team but not being comfortable in left field and not wanting to make a decision until the offseason.
There's the key phrase: Not wanting to make a decision until the offseason. Soriano has little motivation to sign an extension now, not when he knows he can have his choice of teams come December. And it's not like he owes the Nationals the courtesy of talking contract now, not the way he feels he was treated by general manager Jim Bowden and the organization during spring training. A handful of people close to Soriano say he'll flat-out refuse to come back, if Bowden still is GM.
The Nationals can't wait until the winter to negotiate with Soriano. They can't take the chance he'll wind up signing elsewhere and leave them with nothing in return (aside from a compensatory draft pick). Remember: Bowden traded Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge and prospect Armando Galarraga to acquire Soriano in the first place. In the end, he has to be able to say he got something of value in exchange for all that.
Who cares about getting something in return when Washington has a chance to make a real run at the pennant thanks to this surprising upturn? Take the fan's cap off for a moment and think about this rationally.
The Nationals aren't going to the playoffs. There's just too much ground to make up. To win the NL East, they need to win 95 games. And to win 95 games, they would have to go 66-33 the rest of the way. That's right: They would have to win two of three against every remaining opponent on the schedule.
It's not going to happen.
Too many major league clubs get fooled by their own hint of success. They think it's important to try to win 81 games every year. Well, 81 wins doesn't mean the playoffs. And the difference between 81 and 95 is larger than most think.
Could the Nationals keep playing well, keep Soriano and wind up winning 81 to 85 games this season? Sure. But which is better: An 81-win team that loses Soriano to free agency, or a 70-win team with a couple top prospects who give them a chance to win 95 games in 2008?
The choice is obvious. As painful as it might be, the Nationals should trade Alfonso Soriano.

[McKain]

This isn't painful at all, and it's expected. The guy who wrote the article is kind of misunderstanding the Soriano situation at this point in assuming it's at all expected for Soriano to stay when the owners want cheap youth and cheap kinda young guys, and Soriano sure ain't cheap.

[Kingdom]

Anaheim needs a bat, raid their farm.
By raiding, avoid McPherson and Krotchman.

[love_that_reefer]

Tons of teams need bats. The Cards, Yankees, Angels, Braves, and A's all need a guy like him. If it were up to me, I would keep Soriano and trade Guillen, Livan and Vidro. Soriano, Johnson and Zimmerman is a nice core to build around.

[Giants666]

But Soriano isn't going to re-sign with the Nats though Reef, they have to trade him.......I still don't why Bowden made that deal?

[Kingdom]

Braves need pitching more than another outfielder. I don't see New York out bidding a team with a rich farm system.

And what are the odds Soriano would want to stick with the Nats?

[McKain]

There's no way in hell Soriano can stay with the Nationals. It is 100% not an option. He will not want to, because he wants to play second base, and he will not be able to, because he will command a monstrous contract which the new ownership is wary to gve.

[love_that_reefer]

I don't think any smart GM will ever let him play second base again! Remember now, I said smart so Jim Hendry and whoever might! Also remember I said if it were up to me, that's what I would do. I would keep a guy who hits 40 and drives in 100 and trade Hernandez,Vidro and Guillen and get some prospects or young MLB guys. Plus you lose a lot of salary that way. While I'm at it, I am buying out Guzman's contract!

[ThomasTomasz]

Soriano wants to play second base, and the reason he is planning to wait until the offseason to decide on re-signing is to position himself to be marketable to teams that need secondbasemen. At secondbase, while he is probably one of the worst defensively, is the best offensive guy hands down. In the outfield, Soriano is probably anywhere from 10-20 offensively, and is pretty good on defense, where his strong arm is perfect.

The Nats can keep Soriano in vain, hoping they can find some way to compete without much pitching, or they can trade Soriano, who will bring them maximum value right now, as a 5 tool 2B/OF. Soriano will go a long way to fixing their farm system, and hopefully getting prospects who will be ready to play next year. Right now, Soriano, and only Soriano, is the marketable trade piece for the Nationals.

[Kingdom]

That would be such a mistake to let him be a 2B again. You have to consider his erratic play and he's had Teixeira and Tino Martinez as 1B's (maybe Nick Johnson too when he was with NYY), and you have to figure they cut down on a lot of his junk.

[McKain]

Soriano would probably suck a few dicks to get moved back to second at this point.

[love_that_reefer]

5 tool? You know playing good defense goes into to that!

[love_that_reefer]

Soriano would probably suck a few dicks to get moved back to second at this point.

Like I said jIm Hendry!

[ThomasTomasz]

5 tool? You know playing good defense goes into to that!

One of the local news broadcasters here in the Maryland/DC/VA area, has already mentioned that Soriano is one of the leaders in putouts from the OF. His strong arm is an asset in the outfield, and his speed allows for him to cover plenty of ground (as well as cover up any mistakes.) As an outfielder, he is very good defensively.

[Kingdom]

5 tool? You know playing good defense goes into to that!

As does plate patience.