Wait Till Next Year, And The Year After

[ThomasTomasz]

On July 27, four days before the trade deadline, the Nationals will be at .500 and on the edges of the NL wild-card race. And they'll also be in one heck of a quandary. Should they trade away veterans for prospects, as the team's brain trust will probably prefer? Or should they add players for a long-shot run at the playoffs to appease their delighted but short-sighted fans?

Cut out this prediction so you can send it to me baked in a crow pie. A team that went 30-49 after last July 5th, then was abysmal in spring training and started this season 13-27, is about to inspire talk of a winning year. RFK will bounce again soon.

This is a kind of fool's gold prophecy -- it looks good, but may be a fake. Baseball plays devious tricks. The game is about to play one in favor of the Nats. The question, before this season ends, will probably be whether it was really a dirty trick.

Sometimes the stars align against a team. Last year, the Nats had an insanely difficult schedule, playing 104 games against winning teams. If an 81-81 record can be remarkable, theirs was. Now, the opposite is likely to happen. So many factors now favor the Nats that they may have trouble avoiding a 51-51 record by the end of July if they play even passably well.

First, almost every team in every year plays out its season in a series of streaks and slumps. Last year's Nats were a perfect example with a season progression of 23-18, 1-7, 26-6, 9-24, 18-16 and 4-10. Where's the .500 team in that statistical mess?

Slumps and streaks are the nature of the game. One tends to beget the other. Once a team becomes convinced its luck has changed -- or it's found its style of play or fixed its rotation or whatever its previous misery -- it usually stays hot for weeks, even if it's only a mediocre team. The Nats now think they're getting the breaks. Their fifth straight win, 5-4 over the Braves last night in Atlanta, was pure blessedness. The game ended with a bases-loaded smash by Adam LaRoche off Chad Cordero. Anywhere but directly at an infielder and the Nats lose. The rocket found Jose Vidro's glove for a groundout. Save, Cordero!

The second factor favoring the Nats is even more powerful. Just as the team has improved its play and regained confidence, the club's schedule -- which was such an anchor last season -- has suddenly become an equally lopsided boon.

Starting with an 11-game homestand this Thursday, the Nats have a 42-game feast until July 27 when they play tons of home games (27) and scads of contests against four of the five worst teams in baseball. The Nats will get a wonderfully disproportionate helping of woeful Marlins, Pirates, Devil Rays and Cubs -- 16 games in all. These are not just losing teams, they are bad. The Nats also play the Rockies and Orioles, both losers, seven times. Even some of the tough games aren't so rough -- like seven against the Phils and Giants, both just 29-27 before last night's games.

What's going to keep the Nats from playing 25-19 ball to get to .500? After all, by next week the Nats will have their best pitcher and best hitter of last season, John Patterson and Jose Guillen, back from the disabled list. If the Nats can survive into June with one win from Patterson, from whom they expected 15 wins, why wouldn't they think they'd weathered the worst of the season's storms?

Besides, omens are showing up. The bullpen just added rookie Bill Bray, 21, the team's No. 1 draft pick in '04, to help space the workload more sensibly among the established relief crew. In his first big league game, Bray threw one pitch, watched Brian Schneider throw out a runner to end the inning then watched Schneider hit a two-run homer in the ninth to give him the win.

All of this good cheer can, of course, come asunder. For example, nobody can stay as hot as Alfonso Soriano has been for the last 17 games, reaching a silly pace for 60 homers. Why, he's on a pace for 412 total bases. From '37 to '97, the NL had two 400-total-base seasons -- by Stan Musial and Hank Aaron. Still, don't underestimate Fonzie. He had 381 and 358 total bases in '02 and '03. Hard as it may be to believe, what he's done to date isn't terribly far beyond what he's done before.

The hard question for the Nationals, and their fans, is whether they even want their team to capitalize to the maximum possible extent on the opportunities of the next seven weeks. Everybody wants to win. But what if the Nats actually played their best? What if, after starting the year losing almost every one-run game, they simply evened the odds and won most of them for a while? What if, instead of watching walk-off homers in Atlanta and Cincinnati, they returned the sudden-death favors in RFK?

All the details of the grand plan of the Nats' new ownership have not been laid out yet. But the general shape has been made perfectly clear by President Stan Kasten: The Future Isn't Now. Build a team worthy of a new $611 million ballpark in Southeast. If nothing else, you owe it to the town that forked over so much cash. The year the new park opens -- '08, with luck -- takes care of itself. But by '09, a smart and responsible ownership would want to put a consistent winner on the field.

To do that, on such a tight '09 or '10 schedule for fielding an authentic contender, some sacrifices will almost certainly have to be made. A glance at Kasten's spectacular record in Atlanta tips you off to what they'll be -- the certainty of short-term pain for the sake of increasing the odds of long-term gain.

So, while we're inviting mockery, let's make another prediction. Before August, the Nationals' won-lost record -- and the stock of many of its players -- will have improved substantially, aided by as weak a 42-game schedule as you'll see.

That's when Nats fans will find out why truly well-run franchises are so rare. From a distance, it seems so easy to say, "Why doesn't every team do it the way the Braves did it?" But up close, seen day to day, there is always some perfectly wonderful reason to take the short-term pleasure, refuse the pain and rationalize the decision.

In a few weeks, the Nats may still be stuck in the doldrums, weak schedule or not. But if they rally, if they make their run at .500 or even above it, a crucial juncture will arrive for Washington's new team, its executives and its fans. Exactly the players who are getting the headlines, creating the cheers and making the third-base box seats at RFK bounce again, will be the players who should probably be traded when their value is at the top of the market. And perhaps even above their real value.

How difficult will it be to make those deals for players who, after barely a year in RFK, have already become household names and fan favorites for their deeds in '05?

This is how hard: Say the words: "Trade 'em all. Get prospects. Lose 100 games in '07 and get better draft picks." It hurts, doesn't it? You don't even want to say it (and I don't want to type it).

In almost every sport or business, it seems so easy to "do it the right way" -- in theory -- until the time actually comes. Then it gets hard in a hurry. If the Nats play as well as they should against the lame schedule they face between now and July 27th, a classic collision between short-term pleasure and long-term gain should be on full display at RFK.

Enjoy Alfonso and Livan, Vidro and Guillen, and maybe some others, too. All too soon, if the Nats really choose to "do it the right way," a deal-making sign will go up outside RFK Stadium: One-Stop Shopping, Get Your '06 World Series Ring Here.

And the hurting will begin.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...0501322_2.html

[ThomasTomasz]

Bowden has destroyed an already weak farm system since he's come to the Nationals, and it is clear that they will not be competing at all this year. The Phillies are playing extremely well, the Mets are playing high above expectations, the Marlins are always dangerous because of the young talent and the park they play in, and the Braves should never be discounted until someone actually ousts them from first place.

I would not spend the few prospects the Nats have left on a fools chase. They need #3, #4, and #5 starters, not to mention a bullpen overhaul. At one point, the Nats had too many starters, and now they have too little. The bullpen, which kept them afloat last year, lost a great setup man in Luis Ayala before the season started, and Joey Eischen has struggled.

Right now, the Nats would be best served to play through this weak schedule, and bump the value of their tradable players up, and then get some ready made prospects at the deadline. With fewer and fewer teams trading at the deadline, because of stubborness in thinking they can compete (like the Nationals could do) the value of even average players goes up. Thats not even counting someone who is as hot as Alfonso Soriano is right now.

[love_that_reefer]

Mets were picked to win the East by many, many people. How are they playing above expectations?

[ThomasTomasz]

Mets were picked to win the East by many, many people. How are they playing above expectations?

Maybe I should say that they are playing above my expectations. I did not expect much of anything from their pitching staff, sans Pedro Martinez. It's safe to say Glavine has really come through for them in the rotation, and the bullpen is a complete 180 from last year, despite Wagner enduring some trouble. I really did not question their offense, except for some health issues in Delgado's elbow, and Jose Reyes developing as a leadoff hitter. It is safe to say they are playing above my expectations, and I'm certain there are many who also picked the Braves.

[McKain]

Bowden has destroyed an already weak farm system since he's come to the Nationals, and it is clear that they will not be competing at all this year.

The Nationals probably won't compete this year, but to say it's clear they won't is pretty absurd. They're 9.5 out of the division, 9 (or maybe a bit more) back of the wild card, with 100 games to go. That's plenty of time.

I would not spend the few prospects the Nats have left on a fools chase. They need #3, #4, and #5 starters, not to mention a bullpen overhaul. At one point, the Nats had too many starters, and now they have too little. The bullpen, which kept them afloat last year, lost a great setup man in Luis Ayala before the season started, and Joey Eischen has struggled.

What? They need three starters? Livan is pitching as he's usually expected to, Tony Armas Jr. has been incredible this year, and Michael O'Connor has been a great surprise and is pitching very well. John Patterson is going to come back, and he may produce or he may not, but the fact is, they have three solid starters now and a fourth on the way, and somehow they need to find three? Please.

Cordero, Majewski, and Rauch have been quality out of the bullpen this season, Mike Stanton is getting better over time, and Bill Bray's a young high-potential talent coming out of it. There are problems with the bullpen, in that it's unproven, but Rauch has stepped up his game to replace Ayala and Stanton is a fine replacement for Eischen.

Right now, the Nats would be best served to play through this weak schedule, and bump the value of their tradable players up, and then get some ready made prospects at the deadline. With fewer and fewer teams trading at the deadline, because of stubborness in thinking they can compete (like the Nationals could do) the value of even average players goes up. Thats not even counting someone who is as hot as Alfonso Soriano is right now.

Finally I can agree with you. The Nats likely won't contend, they shouldn't try, but it's not nearly as bad a situation as you make it seem. You're telling me if they get another hitter in the lineup (besides Guillen) and someone like Bill Bray turns into a good reliever, they won't be in good shape to contend down the line?

[Dry1313]

the Marlins are always dangerous because of the young talent and the park they play in

The Marlins? Dangerous?

[General]

Wonder what they could get for Guillen right now.

[ThomasTomasz]

The Marlins? Dangerous?

They have young and talented players, and still field Cabrera and Willis on their team. They play half of their games in the best pitchers park in baseball. The team is dangerous, and can put together some solid streaks. I'm not saying they are going to win over 50% of their games, but they can give teams a run for their money.

[McKain]

Wonder what they could get for Guillen right now.

Right at this moment, not nearly what he's worth, making a trade incredibly stupid.

He's played hurt all year, he hasn't performed well. All he is right now is a good defender with a strong arm who might rebound to hit well, and that's not good for the trade market. He needs to come back, play, and play well to make it worth dealing him

[realmofotalk]

The team is dangerous, and can put together some solid streaks.

Besides winning 9 of 12 recently (and then proceeding to lose 2 of 3 to the Giants), what have the Marlins done so far that make them a dangerous team?

[ThomasTomasz]

Besides winning 9 of 12 recently (and then proceeding to lose 2 of 3 to the Giants), what have the Marlins done so far that make them a dangerous team?

Right now, they can reel off streaks like that. They are young and talented, as I said, and can catch fire like that. But, as you demonstrated, they can also go out fast too. So, we really just proved that they can be dangerous sometimes. Although I will admit, that won't be too often.

[Bear]

The Nationals can be a good club if they get the right GM. Also, If Robinson leaves they will need a solid manager. Has there been any thought to making Robinson the GM? He has good knowledge of the game and will not put up with alot of BS from the players.Then if they got a good young manager I think they would be ready to roll! JMO

[love_that_reefer]

Marlins will continue to get better as the year goes on. There is a lot of talent and they do have a good coach in Girardi.

[Bear]

Reefer...I think they are talking aboiut the Nationals in this thread? I could be wrong but I do not think so!

[love_that_reefer]

Besides winning 9 of 12 recently (and then proceeding to lose 2 of 3 to the Giants), what have the Marlins done so far that make them a dangerous team?

They were talking about both!