NCAA Championship Week

[bcshorts]

Yeah, it's that time of year again. Selection Sunday is just a week and a half away. The sounds, the excitement, the surprise and suspense of March Madness are almost here. But before we get to that tournament of all tournaments, thirty-four of college basketball's conferences hold tournaments to decide who will represent them in the Big Dance. These tournaments can be (and often are) just as exciting as the the bracket of sixty-five itself. Here, nearly every team in the country has it's one last, true shot at glory. For some, these tournaments are a mere tune-up, an exercise of preparation. But for others, the madness and desperation starts now. So let's hop in and get to talking about the most exciting month of the year.

Here I'll be giving my predictions and talking about some of the bigger and more meaningful conference tournaments. They will come in no particular order, and will be staggered between the starting times of the tournaments and, quite honestly, when I have the time to do the calculations to make these predictions. But without further adieu, let's get started with the Horizon League.

Conference: Horizon League
In: Butler
Probably In: N/A
Bubble: N/A

Tournament Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana

First Round, Tuesday, March 3 (on campuses):

#3 Cleveland State 56, #10 Detroit 43
#7 Illinois-Chicago 73, #6 Youngstown State 68
#4 Wright State 68, #9 Valparaiso 56
#5 Milawukee 77, #8 Loyala 68

Quarterfinals, Friday, March 6:

6:00 p.m. #4 Wright State vs. #5 Milwaukee
8:00 p.m. #3 Cleveland State vs. #7 Illinois-Chicago

Semifinals, Saturday, March 7:

7:00 p.m. ESPNU, #4 Wright State vs. #1 Butler
9:00 p.m. ESPNU, #3 Cleveland State vs. #2 Green Bay

Championship, Tuesday, March 10:

9:00 ESPN, #2 Green Bay vs. #1 Butler

Champion: Butler
At-Large: None
Game(s) to Watch:
#3 Cleveland State vs. #2 Green Bay, 3/7 @ 9:00p.m. on ESPNU
#2 Green Bay vs. #1 Butler
Analysis: The second and third seeds Cleveland State and Green Bay are both very good teams who have had remarkable seasons. Cleveland State won at Syracuse and came within two of beating Butler twice, including in the season finale. Green Bay has 22 wins on the year, and went 13-5 in conference. Neither has done enough to merit an at-large berth, though, so winning this tournament is their only chance to participate in the Big Dance. They will ultimately match up with a very strong Butler team, who has already done enough to be considered in the field of sixty-five. If Green Bay can get past Cleveland State to make the title game, they should give Butler everything they can handle. Ultimately, Butler will probably hang on in win, thanks in large part to their home court advantage. A Horizon League title for Green Bay, though, is not out of the question.
Why You Care: If Butler falls and Cleveland State or Green Bay get the bid, Butler still gets in as an at-large. And that's one less spot for your big conference bubble team. So unless you care more about feel-good stories, you're a Butler fan. Green Bay has a legitimate shot.

[bcshorts]

Conference: Missouri Valley
In: N/A
Probably In: Creighton
Bubble: N/A

Tournament Location: Scottrade Center in St. Louis, Missouri

First Round, Thursday, March 5:

7:05 p.m. #8 Drake vs. #9 Indiana State
9:35 p.m. #7 Wichita State vs. #10 Missouri State

Quarterfinals, Friday, March 6:

1:05 p.m. #1 Northern Iowa vs. #8 Drake (#9 Indiana State)
3:35 p.m. #4 Bradley vs. #5 Southern Illinois
7:05 p.m. #2 Creighton vs. #7 Wichita State
9:35 p.m. #3 Illinois State vs. #6 Evansville

Semifinals, Saturday, March 7:

2:35 p.m. #1 Northern Iowa vs. #4 Bradley
5:05 p.m. #2 Creighton vs. #3 Illinois State

Championship, Sunday, March 8:

2:00 p.m. #1 Northern Iowa vs. #2 Creighton

Champion: Creighton
At-Large: None
Game(s) to Watch:
#1 Northern Iowa vs. #8 Drake, 3/6 @ 1:05 p.m.
#2 Creighton vs. #3 Illinois State, 3/7 @ 5:05 p.m.
Analysis: The second and third seeds are the two best teams in the conference and should both be a lock for a semifinal matchup against each other. Northern Iowa is a weak team that benefited from an early conference run, but has struggled lately. They could be in legitimate trouble in their first game against Drake. If they win that one, they should be able to win their next game to make it to the championship tilt. However, they will be overmatched by either Creighton or Illinois State.
Why You Care: If Creighton makes it to the championship game, they're into the field of sixty-five. However, you want them either out early or winning it all. The safe bet is praying they win it all, and they probably will. The most interesting scenario would be a loss to Illinois State in the semifinals, which would leave them squarely on the bubble with Illinois State likely taking the conference bid.

[cjkalt]

I think your vastly underestimating the talent on the Northern Iowa team, they may be struggling, but I think they have a better chance of taking down the Missouri Valley than Illinois State, who quite frankly has only benefited from playing in the MVC, they don't have many if any quality wins outside conference.

Also in the Horizon, what incentive does Butler have to win the tournament, as you mentioned Cleveland St. and UW-GB ard desperate, Butler may have the talent and a semi-home tournament but desperation (well not ND, but thats cause we suck) brings out the the best in teams, and I think one of those 2 will steal a bid making the Butler seeding another interesting case.

[browntown653]

Good stuff. I really love these minor conference tournaments.

cj...Butler is not a 100% lock to make it as an at-large, so that's their incentive. Should they be?...I think they absolutely should...but the committee has screwed them over before, so they certainly want to put their fate in their own hands.

[browntown653]

Conference: Missouri Valley
In: N/A
Probably In: Creighton
Bubble: N/A

Tournament Location: Scottrade Center in St. Louis, Missouri

First Round, Thursday, March 5:

7:05 p.m. #8 Drake vs. #9 Indiana State
9:35 p.m. #7 Wichita State vs. #10 Missouri State

Quarterfinals, Friday, March 6:

1:05 p.m. #1 Northern Iowa vs. #8 Drake
3:35 p.m. #4 Bradley vs. #5 Southern Illinois
7:05 p.m. #2 Creighton vs. #7 Wichita State
9:35 p.m. #3 Illinois State vs. #6 Evansville

Semifinals, Saturday, March 7:

2:35 p.m. #1 Northern Iowa vs. #4 Bradley
5:05 p.m. #2 Creighton vs. #3 Illinois State

Championship, Sunday, March 8:

2:00 p.m. #1 Northern Iowa vs. #2 Creighton

Champion: Creighton
At-Large: None
Game(s) to Watch:
#1 Northern Iowa vs. #8 Drake, 3/6 @ 1:05 p.m.
#2 Creighton vs. #3 Illinois State, 3/7 @ 5:05 p.m.
Analysis: The second and third seeds are the two best teams in the conference and should both be a lock for a semifinal matchup against each other. Northern Iowa is a weak team that benefited from an early conference run, but has struggled lately. They could be in legitimate trouble in their first game against Drake. If they win that one, they should be able to win their next game to make it to the championship tilt. However, they will be overmatched by either Creighton or Illinois State.
Why You Care: If Creighton makes it to the championship game, they're into the field of sixty-five. However, you want them either out early or winning it all. The safe bet is praying they win it all, and they probably will. The most interesting scenario would be a loss to Illinois State in the semifinals, which would leave them squarely on the bubble with Illinois State likely taking the conference bid.

The Missouri Valley is always weird...I have a feeling Creighton may fall a bit short here leading for an interesting at-large discussion. They seem to be in the mix every year, don't they?

[cjkalt]

Good stuff. I really love these minor conference tournaments.

cj...Butler is not a 100% lock to make it as an at-large, so that's their incentive. Should they be?...I think they absolutely should...but the committee has screwed them over before, so they certainly want to put their fate in their own hands.

As a resident Bracketologist who spends way too many hours looking at resumes (including a mock selection, using the NCAA format and sheets, which can be seen on my blog) I think I know who is and isn't a lock to get in... and Butler is as much a lock as Pitt or UConn... Butler will be in the Dance, auto-bid, no auto-bid, or 1st round tourney loss. They are as in the field as you can be.

[bcshorts]

Conference: Big South
In: N/A
Probably In: N/A
Bubble: N/A

Tournament Location: Dedmon Center, Radford, Virginia

Championship, Saturday, March 7:

4:00 p.m. ESPN #2 VMI vs. #1 Radford

Champion: VMI
At-Large: None
Analysis: In what figures to be a match of pretty equal teams, the offense of VMI will take over and simply outscore Radford. Radford, the higher seed, does get home court advantage. However, the scoring and three point potential of VMI gives them the nod.

[browntown653]

Yeah I know Butler is a 200% lock, but do you think their coach is telling them that? No, they have plenty of motivation because I'm sure they're being told that the committee's screwed them over before and to make sure they take care of business.

[bcshorts]

Also, Cornell clinches the Ivy League berth with their win and Princeton's loss tonight. The Ivy League does not have a conference tournament but gives their bid to the regular season winner. We have our first team in the dance!!!

In addition, two other conferences hold their tournament championship games tomorrow:

Atlantic Sun: 6:00 p.m. ESPN2 #2 East Tennessee State vs. #1 Jacksonville
Ohio Valley: 8:00 p.m. ESPN2 #4 Morehead State vs. #2 Austin Peay

No predictions because I don't know and I don't really care.

[browntown653]

Jacksonville and AP FTWs

[cjkalt]

Jacksonville and AP FTWs

Agree

[browntown653]

Nice win by Jacksonville over a Lipscomb team that had been absolutely rolling...a 16 point win in Lipscomb I believe is very impressive.

[nyjunc]

These next few weeks are the best weeks in sports w/ all the conf tourneys, selection Sunday, the 1st 2 rds of the NCAA then opening day in MLB. Football is my favorite sport but nothing compares to these next 3 weeks for me.

[browntown653]

Agreed, the opening days of the tourney are just the best.

I'm not 100% sure about my OVC pick though as Morehead swept the season series with Austin Peay...

[DirtyKash]

Why can't they just let Joe Lunardi come up with the NCAA tournament's bracket? He's the one doing all the research anyways. It'd be much simpler and there'd be far less controversy.