Leap of faith

[BuckFoston]

The early entry deadline for this year's NBA Draft is 11:59 p.m. Saturday. As of Tuesday, nearly 50 college underclassmen and high schoolers had declared. Several more could follow, especially with the possibility of an NBA age limit looming on the horizon.

But many of those players who declare in the next 24 hours or so might well end up back in school next season. The NBA allows players to withdraw right up until June 21 (a week before the draft), and the NCAA accepts them back as long as they haven't signed with an agent. Given that few of these late declarers are expected to be first-round picks, the ones with common sense (and academic eligibility) will end up returning to college.

For fans in places such as Atlanta, New Orleans and Charlotte, the real fun begins May 24. That's when the NBA Draft lottery is held to determine which team gets the No. 1 pick. The Hawks, who finished with the NBA's worst record during the regular season, will have the best chance of landing the No. 1 overall selection (25 percent). The other lottery teams face lesser odds, depending on where they finished in the regular season.

How will the draft go down? Individual player workouts with teams are just getting under way, so it's tough to predict at this early stage. But based on interviews with scouts over the past month, here's one observer's guess at how the top 10 might look if the lottery goes according to plan:
ATLANTA

Odds of winning lottery: 25 percent

Andrew Bogut


Andrew Bogut, C, Utah: A hard-nosed Australian 7-footer, he draws raves for his soft hands, deft footwork, passing skills and high basketball IQ. His defense still needs work, but he's far and away the best big man in the draft. The Hawks need a center badly and will probably take Bogut if they get the top pick. However, if Atlanta believes it can land a free-agent center such as Eddy Curry or Sam Dalembert, it might be tempted to opt for a point guard such as Chris Paul.
NEW ORLEANS

Odds: 17.8 percent

Marvin Williams


Marvin Williams, SF, North Carolina: May be the best overall prospect in the draft. Scouts say the versatile 6-9 Williams, who played sixth man on North Carolina's NCAA title team, has star written all over him. He can score inside and out, run the break and has the body to be a defensive terror. The Hornets need athletes, especially now that they no longer have Jamal Mashburn at small forward, and Williams is a specimen. Pairing him with shooting guard J.R. Smith would give them two young studs on the perimeter.
CHARLOTTE

Chris Paul


Odds: 17.7 percent

Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest: Some scouts swear this do-it-all floor leader is destined to be a superstar in the Isiah Thomas mold. Others say a more realistic comparison would be Kenny Anderson. There's no doubt he's a heady playmaker, even if he's a bit undersized at 6-feet tall. Charlotte would probably prefer to have a popular local Tar Heel such as Williams to play alongside Emeka Okafor, but it also needs a point guard for the future. Even if Paul has to spend a season learning behind Brevin Knight, the Bobcats could do a lot worse.

UTAH

Odds: 11.9 percent

Deron Williams


Deron Williams, PG, Illinois: The Jazz are praying they win the lottery and a chance to select local hero Bogut, but it probably won't happen. Utah also needs a point guard, and Williams seems like a perfect fit for Jerry Sloan's system. With his thick body and heady floor game, Williams has drawn comparisons to Jason Kidd and Andre Miller. Utah could opt for the bigger upside of Gerald Green, but Sloan probably isn't too keen on the idea of drafting another high schooler after the debacle with DeShawn Stevenson.
PORTLAND

Odds: 8.8 percent

Martynas Andriuskevicius


Martynas Andriuskevicius, C, Zalgiris Kaunas (Lithuania): He's tall and skilled, with an ability to run the floor, and scouts say this lanky 7-3 Lithuanian could be another Pau Gasol once he learns to play in the low post. The problem is he's just 19 years old and 240 pounds. He barely got off the bench this season for his team in the Euroleague. "His body is just so frail," says one scout. Still, the Blazers need big men and Andriuskevicius is too good a prospect to pass up.
Milwaukee
Odds: 6.3 percent

Fran Vazquez, PF/C, Spain: He's no Tim Duncan, but he's a solid all-around four with size (6-10), long arms and good leaping ability. He's also older (22) and has experience playing professionally overseas, so scouts think he might be more ready to step in and contribute immediately. Tiago Splitter might have more potential, but Vazquez's readiness would seem to tip the scales in his favor. Attendance is down in Milwaukee, and the team needs to be competitive next season.
TORONTO

Odds: 3.6 percent

Tiago Splitter


Tiago Splitter, PF/C, Tau Ceramica (Spain): The Raptors need a big body to protect Chris Bosh, and this rangy 6-11 Brazilian is said to have excellent footwork and a decent low-post game. Though still only 20 and a bit on the light side, he has the frame to add weight and eventually play center. Splitter is under contract to his European pro team, so he'd need to be bought out. But the Raptors might not want to go down the Tracy McGrady road again with the likes of Gerald Green, so Splitter could be their best option.
NEW YORK

Odds: 3.5 percent

Gerald Green

Gerald Green, SG, Houston (Tex.) Gulf Shores Academy: This 6-8 prep phenom has drawn comparisons to T-Mac for his amazing athleticism and sweet shooting stroke. He's too thin and raw to make much of an impact right away, but his incredible potential all but guarantees a spot in the top 8. The Knicks are already loaded with perimeter players, and big man Chris Taft is a local product, but New York already has Mike Sweetney at the 4. Isiah Thomas drafted McGrady during his days with the Raptors and he's not afraid to gamble.
GOLDEN STATE

Odds: 1.4 percent

Chris Taft


Chris Taft, PF/C, Pittsburgh: An athletic big man with soft hands, long arms and deft scoring touch inside, the 6-10 Taft could be a nice addition to the Warriors' frontcourt. Some scouts worry about his passive play, but he's a physical specimen with upside. Plus, Warriors boss Chris Mullin has to have a soft spot for a Brooklyn kid who played in the Big East, doesn't he?
L.A. LAKERS

Odds: 1.4 percent

Raymond Felton

Raymond Felton, PG, North Carolina: The Lakers need a point guard, especially if they decide to trade Chucky Atkins, and GM Mitch Kupchak no doubt knows all about this fellow Tar Heel. The floor general for the reigning NCAA champs, Felton has amazing jets to go with acute court vision. However, he's not a good fit for the triangle offense, so if Phil Jackson returns as coach, Kupchak might decide to go for a big man such as French 7-footer Johan Petro or Arizona's Channing Frye.http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...0.2/index.html

[ATLien]

Atlanta will draft Chris Paul. I guarantee it.

[Slyder]

The NBA is about to get Pittsnogled!