What will our rotation look like in 2009?

[CrazyEights]

It doesn't look like there will be much more activity this offseason by the Cardinals. The Cardinal ownership is saying that there isn't a lot of money available, but there are still some glaring needs. The biggest needs is pitching, both closing and starting pitching. The Cardinals could use Mott or Perez as closer. That wouldn't be ideal, but according to recent reports, that is what they are considering. What I'm most worried about is the rotation. If the season started today, this is what the rotation would look like.

#1 Adam Wainwright
Wainwright is a very good starter when he's healthy. He has had some recent health problems though. He should start of the season healthy, and it is critical for the Cardinals chances of winning that he stay healthy.

#2 Kyle Lohse
Throughout his career, Lohse has had his ups and downs. He has had some pretty bad seasons. Most of his career he has been a bottom of the rotation pitcher. His career ERA is 4.67, but his ERA last season was 3.78. The big question is whether that was a career year or if he can duplicate it this season and for the next few seasons that he is signed for. He will be a solid starter if he can do what he did last year, but that is the big question.

#3 Todd Wellemeyer
It is an even bigger question mark as to what Wellemeyer will do this season. His entire career he has been a bad reliever. In 2007 the Royals released him after posting an ERA over 10.00. The Cardinals were desperate for pitching, so they coveted a pitcher that even the Royals didn't want. Once coming to St. Louis he pitched good enough as a reliever that they converted him to a starter. Wellemeyer posted an ERA of 3.11as a Cardinal for the remainder of 2007. He showed that 2007 wasn't a fluke and he could be a good starter by posting an ERA of 3.71 in a full season as a starter. So, Wellemeyer has pitched well as a Cardinal, but it is still only a year and a half. Is that enough to consider him a born again starter? For the Cardinals sake it had better.

#4 open

#5 open

Candidates
Now this is the scary part, because there isn't much left after the top 3 starters.

Chris Carpenter - When Chris Carpenter is healthy then he is a true Ace. If I thought we could count on him, then he would have easily been the #1 pitcher. Unfortunately he cannot be counted on. Carp was supposed to be ready halfway through last year, but he never really could come back. We've been told that he "might" be ready for 2009, but nobody really knows for sure. Not even Chris or his doctors. It is also a question as to whether he will be a closer. I doubt that will happen, but it has been mentioned. Carpenter isn't reliable though, so he can't be counted on for the rotation.

Joel Pineiro - Now this is even scarier. Joel Pineiro hasn't been a good starter since 2003 when he was with the Mariners. In 2007 he showed showed flashes of his old self, but not enough. He posted an ERA of 3.96 as a Cardinal starter in 2007 so it gave the Cardinal faithful hopes that he would be a solid starter in 2008. Those hopes were dashed in 2008 though. He posted an ERA of 5.15 in 2008, so it looks like he had reverted back to the pitcher he has been for the last 5 seasons.

Mitchel Boggs - He is a young pitcher that made some starts in 2008, but they weren't very good starts. There is hope that Boggs can become a good pitcher, and he is still young. In 2008 he posted an ERA of 7.41 in 8 games, most of them being start

There isn't much left after these guys unless I'm missing someone . I sure hope I am, because the 2009 season looks bleak with this is all that's in the forcast for the Cardinals rotation. A lot has been made of the Cardinals bullpen issues. For good reason too, because there are plenty of holes invluding a dominant closer. The problem is the rotation is just as bad if not worse. At least the bullpen has some promising young relievers such as Perez and Motte. The Cardinals have fewer young Starting pitchers, and even fewer that are ready to be relied upon in the starting 5. The Cardinals need to go after the few starting pitchers that are left. They should have gone after pitchers like Redding and Penny, but I never even heard them mentioned as having interest in them. Perez, Looper and others should be looked at also, and hopefully the Cardinals will do something to fix this rotation. Another route for a starter is to trade an outfielder for one. The problem is that starting pitching is one of the hardest commodities to trade for. Everyone needs starting pitching and nobody wants to trade the good ones that they have. Will the Caridinals do something to fix this mess that they call a starting rotation? I sure hope that they do, but if they have been doing anything lately, then it is a huge secret.

[love_that_reefer]

No closer, another third place finish.

[CrazyEights]

That will happen with a 3 man rotation that is suspect at best.

Oh, and they will have a closer... just not an experienced one.

[love_that_reefer]

My point exactly, they have no closer. I hope they actually spend money getting Oliver Perez so Duncan can work his magic on that live arm. Looper should be brought back to be the #5 guy. Pineiro is better served as a reliever.

[CrazyEights]

You don't have to have experience to be a good closer.

I would love it if they were able to get Oliver Perez, but I'm losing hope that to will happen. At the end of last season I wasn't excited about the thought of bringing back Looper. He just isn't that good, but the way this offseason has gone so far, I wouldn't be against it. It would be nice if they could sign two starters, and Looper. Then use Looper as their closer. Pineiro is better served on another team, but he makes too much for that to happen.

[love_that_reefer]

Perez had experience closing last year and it was a bad experience. Looper as a closer could be a good idea but he hasn't fared well there in his career. Maybe more years under his belt could help reverse that.

[CrazyEights]

Perez had experience closing last year and it was a bad experience.

As a rookie! Talk about small sample sizes. I think he closed about 10-15 games at the end of the season.

[love_that_reefer]

Yeah as a rookie! You said they didn't have to have experience to be a good closer. Make up your mind. Seven saves to four blown saves. Not good, not the answer.

[HollywoodLeo]

They should have courted Hoffman

[CrazyEights]

My mind has been made up for a long time. I have no problem with Perez or Motte getting a shot as the closer. I would have liked to see someone like Hoffman signed for a year to give them a little more experience in the Majors before becoming closer. Although, I don't think it's necessary. They both seem to have the intensity to be a closer. 15 games does not a career make.

[CrazyEights]

They should have courted Hoffman

I agree 100%! When everyone was drooling over Fuentes, I was hoping they would sign Hoffman for a year. They had no interest in him from the beginning though.

[love_that_reefer]

Its enough to suggest he can't handle the role and that he isn't ready to be a closer. Perez didn't impress me that much last year. He walked a lot and gave up big hits. Perez pitched in 41 games last year so it wasn't just a sample size. It was plenty of time to see that he shouldn;t be relied upon to close day in and day out.

[CrazyEights]

I do agree that he needs to throw more strikes, but that will come with experience in the big leagues. I personally think that Motte/Perez will be a good set-up/closer combination.

Since you seem to like small sample sizes. You should love Jason Motte. Last year he had 1 save and 0 blown saves. A 0.82 ERA in 11IP... 1 ER and only 2 ER as well as 16 strikeouts and only 3 walks.

The Cardinals have depth of relief pitchers in the minors so they can build a good bullpen from within, it just takes a little time. This is why we never needed to commit 3 years to a guy like Fuentes. Perez and Motte are two great examples of this. Another that we could see soon (unless San Diego snatches him as a PTBL for Greene) is PJ Walters. He isn't power guy like Perez and Motte, but he will help strengthen the bullpen once he is ready.

[love_that_reefer]

You are comparing 12 games to 41 games!! 41 games pitched is not that small of a sample size! It is plenty to gauge what a guy can do and in his case, can't do. Motte has nice minor league numbers but I didn't see him pitch last year unlike Perez. I saw him and wasn't that impressed. Especially not enough to think he is a reliable reliever.

[CrazyEights]

You are comparing 12 games to 41 games!! 41 games pitched is not that small of a sample size! It is plenty to gauge what a guy can do and in his case, can't do. Motte has nice minor league numbers but I didn't see him pitch last year unlike Perez. I saw him and wasn't that impressed. Especially not enough to think he is a reliable reliever.

Then lets compare 41 IP to 38 IP. Fuentes' first two season he pitched a combined 38 IP, and probably didn't convince anyone that he was a reliable reliever with an ERA that was almost 5.00. Chris Perez pitched 41 IP last season and posted a 3.46 ERA. In Fuentes' first 38 IP he allowed 20 runs to score, but Perez allowed only 18 earned and unearned runs to score in a few more innings. Fuentes walked 21 batters while Perez walked 22 batters. Fuentes struck out 48 batters while Perez struck out 42 batters. Fuentes didn't receive any save opportunities his first two years, but in his third season he did get 4 saves and 2 blown saves. I'm surprised they kept him.

Those first 38 IP were the worst 38 IP of his career, except for 2004, but I don't know what the circumstances of that was. I know you wanted the Cardinals to spend $33Mil on Fuentes, but Perez can do the job given some time and a little more experience. He's already doing better than Fuentes was doing at his age.

Unlike Perez, I don't know if Motte can handle the closer role as well. He has a lot of intensity on the mound, and is one of the more entertaining players to watch. Motte didn't do as well in the minors as a closer, and was better as a setup man, while Perez is a closer. Although, Motte spent most of his career as a catcher, so he has only been a pitcher for a couple of years. He may adapt to the closer role better once he has more experience as a pitcher.