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Thread: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

  1. #1

    Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    This is a pretty simple one. I will list all thirty teams and use BP's Playoff Odds page to dictate odds. Basically, this is a LONG TERM BET. You WILL NOT see this money again until the playoffs are set, so I wouldn't bet too much stock in this one. However, the odds will be boosted to reward your patience at the end.

    You are betting on if the team makes the PLAYOFFS. WC or Division, both work.

    The bets will be settled after the last regular season game (and this bet will be stickied until then) or the last official seeding, and before the playoffs.

    Basically, this is how the odds will work.

    A 50% chance will get 2:1 odds. It should be 1:1, but with the long wait, this is a quasi-futures bet and will be boosted. A 75% chance will be 1:1, a 90% chance will be 1:2, and so on up and down the chain. I will use the non-PECOTA or ELO adjusted list in determining. (I don't even know what ELO means)

    It closes on June 1st at Midnight (basically, bet in May)

  2. #2

    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    BTW, I did tinker with some odds and none of them were followed with a direct formulal like I posted, but most of them are in the general area.

    I did cheat on the NL Central, since I find it hard to believe all non-Cubs/Brewers teams have a sub 3% shot at the playoffs, even if the stats say so.
    http://strike3forums.com/forums/phot...pelbon2006.jpg


    Then out of fairness to the others you will be Slagathor.

  3. #3
    Administrator HollywoodLeo's Avatar
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    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    All or nothing on the Padres
    LeagueTeamyearsRecordWild CardDivisionPennantsTitles
    MSLSan Diego Padres2034-20592,217-1,9951631
    TBLArizona Diamondbacks2005-20181,216-1,0531963
    TSSLSan Diego Padres2015-2021, 2024-20281,017-9280732
    TSSLTexas Rangers2029-2033396-4140000

  4. #4

    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    You do know you're not seeing anything until after the season, seriously hindering betting opportunities...though you could claim a bankrupt if you like.
    http://strike3forums.com/forums/phot...pelbon2006.jpg


    Then out of fairness to the others you will be Slagathor.

  5. #5
    Administrator HollywoodLeo's Avatar
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    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    I do claim bankrupt

    I see a zero next to my S3Fcash
    LeagueTeamyearsRecordWild CardDivisionPennantsTitles
    MSLSan Diego Padres2034-20592,217-1,9951631
    TBLArizona Diamondbacks2005-20181,216-1,0531963
    TSSLSan Diego Padres2015-2021, 2024-20281,017-9280732
    TSSLTexas Rangers2029-2033396-4140000

  6. #6

    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    I'll give you your first re-fill and mark it down.
    http://strike3forums.com/forums/phot...pelbon2006.jpg


    Then out of fairness to the others you will be Slagathor.

  7. #7
    Hall of Famer GiantsFanatic's Avatar
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    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    50 on the Twins, D'Backs, and Giants.


  8. #8
    Administrator HollywoodLeo's Avatar
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    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    betting on a division rival?

    shame on you GF
    LeagueTeamyearsRecordWild CardDivisionPennantsTitles
    MSLSan Diego Padres2034-20592,217-1,9951631
    TBLArizona Diamondbacks2005-20181,216-1,0531963
    TSSLSan Diego Padres2015-2021, 2024-20281,017-9280732
    TSSLTexas Rangers2029-2033396-4140000

  9. #9
    14,558 Unread Posts browntown653's Avatar
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    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    Yes, I'm putting 10 on the Pirates.
    I did a lot of good things as a sim league GM.

    Ah, give me something clever to say here.

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    Hall of Famer GiantsFanatic's Avatar
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    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    Quote Originally Posted by HollywoodLeo View Post
    betting on a division rival?

    shame on you GF
    Well I like the odds, plus NL West could arguably be anyone's division between the Giants, Dodgers, Padres and D'Backs. Plus is I do believe he WC will come out of the NL West, so if the Giants win the division and D'Backs win the WC, I win both bets!!!!!!


  11. #11
    Who knew we could win? Porter's Avatar
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    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    500 on the Angels, 50 on the M's......Im still debating to put money on the A's
    2003 Hybrid World Champion (115-47 reg season, 11-4 playoffs)

    TBL: Anaheim Angels 2006-present (238-244 regular season, 1 division title)
    MSL: St Louis Cardinals 2013-present (2734-2936 regular season, 5 division titles, 2 championships)
    TSSL: Seattle Mariners 2006-2029, Pittsburgh Pirates 2030-present (209-277, 5 division titles w/SEA, 1 championship w/SEA)

  12. #12

    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    Is there anyway for you to tell me what bets I have on this?

  13. #13
    14,558 Unread Posts browntown653's Avatar
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    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    Click the team names, that's how it works for every bet.
    I did a lot of good things as a sim league GM.

    Ah, give me something clever to say here.

  14. #14

    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    thanks sir

  15. #15

    Re: Long-Term Bet: Division Winners

    At this early point, the Dodgers and Tigers as WC winners are looking good, but it's a long way away
    http://strike3forums.com/forums/phot...pelbon2006.jpg


    Then out of fairness to the others you will be Slagathor.

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