Where Are They Now? The 1996 Top 100 Prospects (20-1).

[Fishercat]

PART I CAN BE FOUND HERE: http://strike3forums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11517[/b]

PART II CAN BE FOUND HERE: http://strike3forums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11543[/b]

PART III CAN BE FOUND HERE
http://strike3forums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11918

PART IV CAN BE FOUND HERE:
http://strike3forums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12387

And we have finally reached the Top 20, and I think we’ll have a few surprises. We had a list last round that contained 19 major leaguers (out of 20), for a 95% rate. That contributed to an overall rate of 91.25%. And that rate will not change. However, there is a surprising disparity between the haves and have nots considering the place on the list. Within the Top 20, every team expects that player to be a star, and in some cases, their expectations were correct. In others, teams came out very disappointed with their highly touted prospect.

20. Richard Hidalgo, of, Astros
Our first prospect is our 74th major leaguer. Hidalgo has had a relatively successful career, with his most successful time spent in Houston. He has a career .835 OPS, with most of the positive contribution coming from his 2000 and 2003 seasons where he placed Top 20 in the MVP Voting. Outside of those two seasons, none of his other full seasons have really matched up to the level that those two seasons have shown.

19. Rocky Coppinger, rhp, Orioles
Well, there is our first disappointment. It didn’t take long, that’s for sure. In 1996, he was a mediocre starting pitcher with a 5.18 ERA over 125 innings. Sadly, that was his best season, as he was stashed in relief and threw around 115 more innings of poor ball until he was put out to pasture in 2002.

18. Chan Ho Park, rhp, Dodgers
Ah yes, the poster boy (with fellow Dodger Darren Dreifort) for bad contracts in the early years of this decade. After an all-star season (23) in 2001 where he pitched 234 innings of rock solid mid-3 ERA ball, a year after a similar season (226 innings, 3.27 ERA), he signed a huge deal in Texas to become their ace. Park disintegrated when he got to the hitter’s paradise in Arlington. He didn’t have an ERA below five in any season again. Ouch.

17. Rey Ordonez, ss, Mets
When anyone figures out how a middle infielder that couldn’t hit to save his life became the 17th best prospect in baseball, tell me. Thanks. I mean, his highest minor league OPS was .751 in High A. Amazing how he made over 20 mil in his career.

16. Kerry Wood, rhp, Cubs
I would say something about his amazing 20 K game, or his being an above-average starting pitcher. Or him and Prior being the Cubs supposed pitching future. Oh, and he’s our 24th all-star. But I hurt my finger. Sorry.

15. Bartolo Colon, rhp, Indians
Wow, that took long enough. But he is our third major award winner and first since Chris Carpenter (81) with his Cy Young Award win (albeit not the best candidate) in 2005. He also marks our 25th all-star, guaranteeing that ¼ of the prospects on this list are one-time (or better) all-stars. Still, the Indians (then the Expos, then the White Sox, and now the Angels) should be very happy with the results of Colon. He has a career 3.94 ERA in an era where mid-4 was the normal result. He is nearing 2000 innings and 300 starts, along with 150 wins and 1500 strikeouts. Colon has very quietly gotten some very nice career stats along with a decent injury history to boot. He is likely the most successful prospect in this portion so far, but that could (arguably) end with number fourteen.

14. Billy Wagner, lhp, Astros
Wagner is our third straight (26) all-star and 80th major leaguer. Simply put, Wagner is improbably one of the great closers in the position’s short history. After multiple injuries to his right arm, he switched to his left and he threw some major heat. The four-time all-star has over 600 career appearances and is three saves away from the 300 save mark, where he’ll meet Bruce Sutter for 19th place. The four-time all star has some amazing seasons, with a 300 (!) ERA+ in 2005 for the Phillies. Oh, and he attended Ferrum College to play DIII baseball. Awesome.

13. Derrick Gibson, of, Rockies
49 at-bats. Wow, at least he made the majors, but ick.

12. Matt Drews, rhp, Yankees
And Matt Drews holds the distinct honor of being the highest ranked career minor leaguer on the list! Congrats! He was the third best prospect in the Yankees system, which is amazing since was 12th overall. Oddly enough, he started to be horrible in 1996. He suddenly lost his control. He finished with a 38-71 career minor league record. Ouch.

11. Jason Schmidt, rhp, Braves
Our 27th all-star has his b-r page un-sponsored and it only costs thirty bucks, go figure. He’s had a very interesting career. He started with the Braves, but after two partial-seasons, where he looked like a bust, he was dealt to Pittsburgh for Denny Neagle. He got consistent time in Pittsburgh and improved to an above-average starter in three seasons. He suffered an injury bump in 2000, and when he didn’t look better in 2001, he was dealt to San Fran for Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong. As soon as he got to San Francisco, he blew up. In 2003, he put in a superb 2.34 ERA and won TSN’s Pitcher of the Year. He didn’t match that point again, but he is looking solid again in 2006, making Littlefield remember the Aramis trade.

10. Ben Davis, c, Padres
Another ouch. The former second pick has simply had an undistinguished and unfulfilled career. He’s never had an above average OPS in over 1500 at-bats over seven seasons. There really isn’t anything distinguishable about this career. Has to sting for Padres fans considering he is stuck between Jason Schmidt and the #9 man on the list…

9. Vladimir Guerrero, of, Expos
VLADDY! I do hold a minor grudge, since he was the only really great young player who I never got a card for in the 1995 Bowman’s Best set. Man, that set was awesome, the cards were nice looking and the rookies were awesome. Plus, the packs were five bucks, not a bad price for premium cards, especially since SP Authentic really holds the premium rookie market now for a higher price and lower ratio. Still have my Andruw Jones, Scott Rolen, and Nomar cards in that set. Anyway, our 28th all-star and fourth major award winner, and one of the elite baseball players today. Through age 29, he has Mays and Snider at the top of his most similar players list. His career OPS of .977 is 11th all-time and 40th all-time for OPS+. He is simply an amazing player, and likely the best player on this entire list. I’d take him first at least. Although some good ones are coming up in the last eight players.

8. Livan Hernandez, rhp, Marlins
Yay! Another large pitcher. After a great, short season for the WS Champs in Florida, he had mixed results with San Francisco and Florida until he got into the Expos franchise. He posted an awesome year in 2003, and although he has been very good, it seems that the work is finally catching up with him. Still, he’s pitched around 2000 innings with an ERA around the league average and a WHIP of 1.40. He also has a near .500 league record. On the whole, he’s an average pitcher, but a very good innings eater over the years, and that certainly has value. He is also our 29th all-star.

7. Karim Garcia, of, Dodgers
Well, I think it’s best to give his most famous moment.

García is remembered for an incident in the 2003 ALCS at Fenway Park, when he jumped into the bullpen to assist Yankees teammate Jeff Nelson in a fight with a groundskeeper. García is also known for a conflict with Boston Red Sox pitcher Pedro Martínez during the same series because of an inside pitch García felt was intentional. Martínez's post-game response of "Who is Karim García?" became a catch phrase for Red Sox fans during this series. (Source: Wikipedia).

Also, he was traded for Luis Gonzalez. What a trooper

6. Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees
Derek Jeter. Man, it’s strange. He has gone from one of the most overrated players in baseball to a well-oiled machine who, often times, gets underrated. He is one of the best players on the list and the only Yankee prospect in the Top 12 who wasn’t a bust. Captain Intangibles was originally a part of one of the great shortstop trios in baseball history with Garciaparra and Alex Rodriguez. He is the only of those shortstops remaining, although Miguel Tejada has also stepped up to be a premier shortstop. Jeter is one of the most consistent players in the game, with 148 or more games in all but one season since 1996 and an above-average OPS in each of those years as well. The six-time all star (30) and two time Gold-Glove winner (cough) is our 87th major leaguer so far.

5. Alan Benes, rhp, Cardinals
And our top 5 starts with a whimper. Alan Benes pitched in 115 career games over 8 years for three teams. He went 29-28 with a 4.59 ERA. He had one really good season in 1997, where he had 23 starts and a sub-three ERA. However, he flailed after that year and pitched his last season in 2003.

4. Darin Erstad, of, Angels
Darin had three above-average offensive seasons in his career and he was a 1B/OF. So, how did he last for almost 6,000 plate appearances for the Angels? He was a beast in the field. The two-time all star (31) has three gold gloves (two in CF and one at 1B) and a silver slugger in the OF in 2000. In 2002, Baseball Prospectus estimates that Erstad was 28 runs better than the average centerfielder in roaming the turf. He wasn’t a slouch in LF either, where he had multiple seasons where he was more than ten runs better than the league LF. He’s also the second best player in the Top 5, go figure. Erstad is also our 31st all-star.

3. Ruben Rivera, of, Yankees
So, can I assume that it’s not good for the Yankees if a player’s top two moments in baseball were:

A. Stealing a star shortstop’s glove and bat to sell
B. Committing arguably the worst baserunning play in the history of baseball as seen here:

Yeah, ouch.

2. Paul Wilson, rhp, Mets
Where the hell did he go wrong? The first overall pick in 1994 and the second overall prospect in 1996 has been a story of mediocrity and injuries in his major league time. He strung together three seasons of 28-30 starts with a 92 ERA+ from 2002-2004, and he had 24 starts with a 92 ERA+ in 2001. Still, the Mets sure didn’t expect a career 40-58 record with a 4.86 ERA for the career of their #2 prospect.

1. Andruw Jones, of, Braves
Well, at least the top prospect on the list didn’t go kaboom like three of his brethren in the Top 5.
He was called up at the age of 19 in 1996, three years after being signed as an amateur free agent. He grew as an offensive player until 2000, when he got his first all-star game bid. He stumbled in 2001, but picked up where he left off in 2002. He broke out last year, hitting 51 homeruns to put him over the 300 mark at the age of 28 as he won the Major League Player of the Year (not the MVP). Andruw has a career OPS of .845. Still, he’s best known as one of the two elite defensive CFs in the NL with Jim Edmonds. He holds 8 gold-gloves and is winning them on reputation and talent at this point. His career has been very good to this point, but he’s looking to be a very good career player by the time he is retired.

Major League Players: 92 (92%)
Minor League Players: 8 (8%)
All-Stars: 32 (32%)
Major Award Winners: 4 (4%)

[Providence A's]

k, good job...let's put this baby to bed

[Kingdom]

Also worth noting on Livan, he knows how to handle the bat and prolly woulda won a gold glove or two if not for Mad Dog.

[Hammer]

k, good job...let's put this baby to bed

are you insane? i want to see an every two year interval from 1946-2002... maybe 2004, depending on how long it takes to do the other years.

new york prospects always get inflated... and it just goes to show, when 3 of the 4 new york prospects in the top 20 were overrated at the time this list was compiled... nice stats on ordonez for the record, proves the point even further... and the other got the overrated title at another point in his career. there really were some damn solid names on the list... its always nice to read back on things like this, to see names like ruben rivera, derrick gibson and ben davis over names like vlad guerrero, billy wagner, miguel tejada, chris carpenter, amongst others.

for the record, i still scream out WHO IS KARIM GARCIA at random inoppurtune moments during the day. its really a great saying.

[Fishercat]

Since you spoke of other lists. A look at the 1994 list is very interesting. Just a couple tidbits

-The 1994 Blue Jays were almost like the 1996 Yankees: Except one started a dynasty and one was the end. The 1994 Blue Jays had three members of the Top 10. Their top player, #4 Alex Gonzalez, has been a worse than average SS. Their last player, #10 Jose Silva was the token bad pitcher who got innings based on reputation. He was quickly traded to the Pirates in 1997, in a deal whose biggest player was a PTBNL (Craig Wilson to the Bucs). The middle guy? A catching prospect named Carlos Delgado.

-The better players in the first fifth were Sterling Hitchcock and Ron Villone

-I think the earliest major award winner was Alex Rodriguez at #6, and that's starting at 100.

-Billy Wagner and Derek Lowe are two of the best players in the Bottom 50

The 1991 Top 5:
1. Todd Van Poppel, rhp, Athletics
2. Andujar Cedeno, ss, Astros
3. Ryan Klesko, 1b, Braves
4. Jose Offerman, ss, Dodgers
5. Roger Salkeld, rhp, Mariners

[Dry1313]

Goddamnit. I hate Ruben Rivera, and I feel for all these career minor leaguers, and their teams.

[Kingdom]

By your estimation, which year ended up with the most productive between 91-00? 96 looks great, at least in the sense that only 8 percent failed to see the big leagues. Plus a third were allstars.

[Providence A's]

are you insane?

I specifically meant this particular year

[Fishercat]

It's tough to judge, since I've only done one year. So I'd have to take a better look, but 1996 does look very strong considering the amount of all-stars and lack of non-major leaguers.

For instance, I was going to make my 25 man roster out of this team, and I had serious troubles with the MI. Namely, the best named 2B was Luis Castillo. At SS? Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, Edgar Renteria, Miguel Tejada. Tough stuff. Absurd stuff.

[Kingdom]

If Nomar can wing it at 1B, he can wing it at 2B!

[Providence A's]

you think that SS choice is tough, the Yankees in my MVP 2005 game have Honus Wagner, Phil Rizzuto, Luis Aparicio, and Derek Jeter.

[Hot Rod Mcqueen]

Some of the people who made it went big, some never got there. thats how life is. It just intresting how only a small percentage made it.

[BrianDawkins]

i agree in the sentiment that i'd love to see you do plenty more of these year-by-year draft analyses... great reads all around

[Looshius]

This is not the type of list you see everyday...I think I'm going to like it here

It really shows how unpredictable prospects are, there are so many intangibles that determine who succeeds, since everybody has an incredible amount of talent. Plus it's always nice to see the number one prospect actually succeed.

[General]

Welcome Looshius, hope you stick around.