Where Are They Now? The 1996 Top 100 Prospects (100-81).

[Fishercat]

What a Top 100 Prospect Really Means: Part One of Five (100-81)

The role of a prospect and its importance has existed since the farm systems of teams became more developed than stealing players from lesser clubs. Most of the supposed worst trades in baseball history involved deals where the losing team receives a veteran pitcher or hitter, typically near the end of their career, and the winning team takes on a prospect or young player who turns into a star. For instance, in 1990, the Red Sox received a man named Larry Andersen in late August as a helper in a run to the post-season. Andersen was a mild success, pitching 22 innings of superb baseball to end the season, while pitching in three games of the 1990 ALCS, which the Red Sox lost to the Athletics. On the surface, sending a prospect, who was not in the next year’s Top 100 prospects, for stellar relief pitching was a decent deal. However, in 1992, the prospect jumped into the Top 50 after a strong first season. He busted out in 1994, winning the National League MVP in the strike-shortened season. Jeff Bagwell, the four-time All-Star, MVP, three-time Silver Slugger, has had (arguably) a Hall of Fame worthy career. Now, the Larry Andersen deal does not look so good.

Every time a good prospect is traded in a deal, the whispers of “Curt Schilling” or “Jeff Bagwell” fill the air for the team receiving the older player. Fans have (and will continue too) ridicule Jim Duquette, for trading Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano, and in ten years, “Scott Kazmir” may join those whispers.

However, how much is a prospect really worth, and more specifically, what does getting the “#46 prospect” really mean? How much stock can be put into the rankings of the experts? Over the next five articles, I will take a look back at the list of the Top 100 prospects of 1996: 10 years ago. The list will be taken off of Baseball America’s list.

100. Josh Booty, 3B, Florida Marlins
Josh Booty was the fifth selection of the 1994 draft. He was the middle pick in a Top 10 that included nine future major leaguers, the most successful of which is either Todd Walker or Paul Wilson. Other than a three-superstar block of Nomar Garciaparra, Paul Konerko, and Jason Varitek from picks 12-14, the first draft was mostly a wash. Josh Booty made his debut in 1996, and played from 1996-1998. He posted a .269 batting average in 26 at-bats. He then returned to football at LSU, where he won a bowl game and enjoyed a short career as an NFL Backup.

99. Billy Percibal, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Basically, his top ten Google searches included mid-90’s transactions, such as being optioned to Bowie and being designated for assignment. Also mentioned were sim leagues and a link to a USS Mariner Blog Entry, where he describes Percibal as “Unknown – Washed Out?”.

98. Michael Coleman, OF, Boston Red Sox
An 18th round draft pick of the Boston Red Sox in 1994, Coleman ranked 51st on the 1998 version of the list. He recorded a paltry 70 plate appearances in three major league seasons for the Red Sox (1997, 1999) and the Yankees (2001). He hit .194 and was not an impact player.

97. John Frascatore, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
The 24th round draft pick in 1991 is our first prospect to enjoy a moderately successful Major League career. He enjoys no other placements on lists of any other years, but he made his major league debut two years earlier, in 1994. He enjoyed 14 games in 1995 as well. He relieved consistently, at a clip of about sixty games a year, until 2001. He posted a career 20-17 win-loss record in 274 games and 371 innings. He had a flat 4.00 ERA for an ERA+ of 111.

96. Joe Fontenot, RHP, San Francisco Giants
The 16th selection in the 1995 draft got the Majors, and not much else can be said. With the 1998 Florida Marlins, infamous for the mass exodus of the World Series stars, Fontenot got his eight games in at the Major League level. He went 0-7 with a 6.33 ERA. His best use for the Giants was in an acquisition for Robb Nen.

95. Damon Hollins, OF, Atlanta Braves
Damon Hollins is the first active player from the 1996 draft. Until 2005, he was much like Michael Coleman. The 4th round selection of the Braves had thirty-seven at-bats over a two years. However, he got a shot with the Rays last year, posting a .296 OBP and .418 slugging percentage in 369 plate appearances. He is currently playing for the Devil Rays, and is the most successful hitter to this point.

94. Preston Wilson, OF, New York Mets
At least Hollins was, until Preston Wilson came along. Wilson, the 9th overall selection of the Mets in 1992, is also the first All-Star on the list. He has been a starter since 1999 with the Marlins through 2005 with the Rockies and Nationals. With over 3800 plate appearances, a career OPS+ of 106, and an all-star appearance in 2003, Wilson is the most accomplished player in the bottom 10 of the Top 100 of 1996. Wilson appeared many other times on the prospects, ranging from a Top 45 caliber prospect to where he is in 1996.

93. Jose Pett, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Pett has a fairly unknown history, other than that he didn’t pitch in the major leagues. The useful USS Mariner states of Pett: “Left as a minor league free agent. I believe he lost at least most of one season to a pitching injury while a Jay, but haven’t found details”. Pett is a no-impact player.

92. Gabe Alvarez, SS, San Diego Padres
The second round selection has a quiet major league career. He racked up almost 200 Abs in his first year with a .660 OPS, but he never got much of a chance afterwards. A generally unexciting player called up for a quick fix and not much else.

91. Jeff Abbott, OF, Chicago White Sox
A five-year veteran who alternated years of double and triple digit at-bats. He was a subpar hitter with some production for the White Sox and Marlins. The fourth round selection had a career OPS of .724. Certainly could have been worse, and his major league appearances give the Bottom Ten an, 80% MLB Appearance rate with an all-star and a couple active players, ten years later.

90. Trey Beamon, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Some fun facts
- I had a baseball card of his, an insert, I liked his name.
- His B-R page costs only five dollars to sponsor
- Three different teams, three different years, a generally unsuccessful player.
- Makes 9 of the first 11 to make the majors.

89. Desi Relaford, 2B, Mariners
Perhaps the most successful player not named “Preston Wilson” so far. He is the prototypical utility player: weak hitting, some speed (81 SB), multi-positional ability. He racked up over 3300 plate appearances, and played seven positions: second base, third base, shortstop, left field, centerfield, right field, and pitcher. Yes, pitcher, for one inning. Not much of a player but a useful piece on many teams. He has not played in 2006.

88. Miguel Tejada, SS, Oakland Athletics
The first true superstar on the list. Miguel Tejada is one of the best shortstops in baseball, currently with the Baltimore Orioles. Entering 2006, he had almost 5400 plate appearances and is over 5500 at this moment. A career OPS+ of 112, with six straight years of an .800+ OPS at the shortstop position. The three-time All Star, one-time MVP, and two-time Silver Slugger. One of only two (on my count) MVPs on the entire list, he is arguably the best player this side of the midpoint on the list.

87. Steve Cox, 1B, Oakland Athletics
The fifth round pick in 1992 of the Athletics went on to a mildly successful MLB career. A league average hitter at first base for the Devil Rays had two part-time seasons and one full season. Cox is perhaps the definition of average, although his career was surprisingly short. Cox’ appearance continues a trend of major leaguers, as 5/6 of the players listed have made The Show.

86. Danny Graves, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Graves, the much-maligned “Baby-Faced Assassain”, has had the best major league pitching career of players so far. Over 500 games with a solid ERA and over 180 saves, he went out on a bad note for his disappointing and sometimes hideous performances for the Reds in recent times. Still active and having trouble in Cleveland, Graves has built a nice major league resume with a 41-43 record.

85. Brad Rigby, RHP, Oakland Athletics
The third A’s prospect in the last four and likely the least successful. 73 games, 14 starts, 86 ERA+ with a 5.5 ERA. He never really had a good season, and he was never the same after being traded for Kevin Appier. I think his last name was the name of a dinosaur on Full House as well, so that cannot help.

84. John Wasdin, RHP, Oakland Athletics
I could mention his relatively long career (300 games) of mediocre ball or his nice 1999 with the Red Sox. However…WAY BACK, WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY BACK Wasdin is all I can remember this guy for. WAY BACK and Rod “Upper Deck” Beck is what I remember about late 90’s Sox pens, and Guapo. The A’s had four of the last five prospects.

83. Glendon Rusch, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Think of an starting, left-handed version of Way Back Wasdin. He has over 200 starts in his career for various teams, most recently the Chicago Cubs. He has a 4.88 career ERA and has been generally unspectacular as a 4th or 5th starter. Still, the sheer fact that he has over 1300 innings gives him some value. In 2000, he had a good post-season run, of 6 games for 8.1 innings, giving up only one earned run.

82. Chris Carpenter, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
He has a Cy Young, over 1300 career innings, a 151 ERA+ last year, and he’s an alum of my high school. 82nd ranked prospects that emerge at 29 years of age don’t get a lot better than Christopher Carpenter. THS Represent!

81. Antone Williamson, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
4th pick overall in 1994. 54 career at-bats. 34 OPS+. Not much else to know.

So what do these first twenty players show us? Well, in general terms, 90% of the players, including the entire 90-81 group, made the major leagues. Based on this tiny sample, most prospects in the range will get to the majors. The successes range from minor league washouts to Cy Young and MVP winners. However, most teams will get a 3-4 year role player, or if they are a little more lucky, 7-8 years from a guy like Wasdin or Rusch.

The numbers pan out as such:

18 of 20 (90%) of the players had at least one at-bat or one game in the major leagues (all but Billy Percibal and Jose Pett)

4 of 20 (20%) of the players had at least one appearence in a Major League All-Star Game (Graves, Tejada, Carpenter, and Wilson)

2 of 20 (10%) have won a major award (MVP or Cy Young), with Danny Graves winning the Lou Gehrig Award as well (Tejada had an MVP, Carpenter had a Cy Young).

Next Up: 80-61

[DirtyKash]

It's crazy that Jeff Bagwell has only been an All-Star four times.

He should have twice as many!

[Fishercat]

I was surprised that the number was that low as well.

[Providence A's]

**** the all-star game...

[missionhockey21]

Any Reds fans happy with the acquisition of Bronson Arroyo, can indirectly thank Michael Coleman for being apart of the Wily Mo Pena trade along with Drew Henson. So New York came out with nothing at all from that deal in the end, the Reds gained Arroyo later on and the Red Sox gained Wily Mo Pena. Sticking it to 'The Evil Empire', go Jimbo.

I'll have more comments later on. And seriously people, rep the man.

[realmofotalk]

Boo! Only I knew who Joe Fontenot was.

Now we await the Brian Rose sypnosis..

[Halladay_is_God]

so disappointed that Carpenter left the Jays

[Dry1313]

good read rep +

[Wally Mo Pena]

brilliant piece, that's great info. it's tough to guage what your team is doing when it deals away prospects, and while this is a small sample, it's really helpful to get a grasp on it generally.