The Devil Rays Offseason: Three Weeks In

[Fishercat]

We are three weeks into the baseball season, and we have had some surprises so far.

The best record in baseball belongs to two teams. One, the defending champion Chicago White Sox, could be expected. The other, the defending NL champion Houston Astros, after losing Roger Clemens, was not so expected. The Red Sox, at 12-7, have the same record as the Tigers, and the Reds. Oakland, a pre-season favorite for the title, is a disappointing 8-11. The Mets are rolling along, and the Marlins are not the worst team in baseball, in a somewhat surprising first half.

On an individual level, the surprises are just as plentiful. While the homerun leader is not surprising by any means, the men behind him (Jonny Gomes, Morgan Ensberg, Chris Shelton, and Ji…Jim Thome) are surprising. Ty Wigginton is tied for 6th in the HR race. The Top 20 in OPS contains Brad Hawpe, Jonny Gomes, Nick Swisher, Alex Rios, and Todd Walker. The league leaders in wins contain the usual suspects, such as Roy Oswalt and Curt Schilling, but the living legend Greg Maddux and Oscar Villarreal were long shots to have four wins at this point. Even former (Maddux, Glavine) and current (Thomson) Braves are dominating the ERA charts.

However, looking at the standings three weeks in, the bottom dwellers in each division are not terribly surprising, although the Devil Rays have been a little better than most of the bottom teams.

The Devil Rays have eight wins and eleven losses, but have been competitive with the best so far. A tough series against Texas brought them to the cellar of the AL East, where many have predicted them to stay this year in one of the toughest divisions in the game. Still, prior to that series, they had a .500 record and looked fairly decent. Their offseason was fairly uneventful, with several minor offseason moves and one notable trade.

12/7/05: The Devil Rays trade for Sean Burroughs: The trade, which sent Dewon Brazelton out west to San Diego, has not shown many dividends for the Devil Rays so far. Sean, after a stint on the disabled list to begin the year, has had a total of four fruitless at bats. Brazelton has not been much better for San Diego. One positive that has come out of his and Huff’s injury is the playing time for Ty Wigginton

1/10/06: The Devil Rays sign Ty Wigginton. Three weeks in, this looks to be, by far, their best move. As noted above, Wigginton has had an extremely hot start. He has 8 HRs in 67 at bats with an OPS of 1.020. He will likely cool down, but he may keep his place until all the starters are ready to come back.

1/11/06: The Devil Rays sign Shinji Mori, who is now out for the season with a torn labrum. Ouch.

1/11/06: Jason Childers signed to a minor league deal: Childers has 7.2 relief innings with an ERA of 4.7, the definition of a filler pitcher. Still, he has given the team some major league quality innings, and for a minor league deal, they cannot expect a lot more.

1/11/06: Dan Miceli signed as a free agent. The D-Rays were clearly busy on this day, as they signed the man who is their current closer as well. Miceli has been pretty bad, sporting a 6.5 ERA, but he at least has four saves for his fantasy owners. He has to be on a short leash as closer if he continues giving up a run 2/3 of the times when he pitche an inning.

1/14/06: The Devil Rays trade Danys Baez and Lance Carter for Chuck Tiffany and Edwin Jackson. The Devils Rays stockpile two more pitching prospects, both of which were elite prospects for a while. This has not had a positive impact on the major league level, with only Jackson making an impact in one start with Baez getting closing duties in LA while Gagne is out, but this deal was not made for the majors.

1/17/06: In one of their better moves, they sign Shawn Camp. Camp has been fantastic for the Devil Rays. He has had 10 innings of 2.6 ERA ball out of the bullpen, and has made a positive impact. Camp, Miceli, and possibly Orvella could be competing for that closer spot soon.

1/20/06: They signed Russell Branyan to a minor league deal, in the last out-of-organization deal for the Devil Rays with a notable impact. With injuries to Huff and Baldelli, Branyan has been forced into action both in the corner outfield and third base. He has been what most people expected, a low batting average slugger, except without all the power. He has a .553 OPS, but the Devil Rays are depending on him until they can get their best hitters back.

What does all this mean? Basically, the Devil Rays are taking a planned approach. They are in an exceptionally tough division, with the 2004 World Champion, the highest payroll in baseball, a team that added three of the top free agents available, and the offensively dangerous Baltimore Orioles, who are competing for the division lead at this point. This may be the best idea for him, as spending on older free agents in the past has not given any positive responses. Still, for a team under a very constricted payroll, the ability to make a splash with low-level free agent signings is a good start, hopefully supplementing them with homegrown stars. In the realm of hitting, players like Cantu, Huff, Baldelli, and Crawford, along with Young in the minors, should provide a competent boost and a fearsome lineup in a few years. The pitching is the real question, as these moves, outside of the Camp signing, show little ability to supplement what they have. We’ll see, at least they are better off than the Royals.

[love_that_reefer]

Don't forget that Lance Carter went along with Baez to LA. Hendrickson going down after a shutout to start the year has not helped them any. They have talent to trade forpitching but keep getting these "prospects". The Royals are the worst but their pitching staff hasn't been what was on paper before ST. A lot of injuries is affecting that team. Good stuff Fisher!

[Witlon]

Good stuff Fish.

That Devil Rays team is going to be really fun to watch come next season with Upton and Young joining an already good lineup. Aubrey Huff should be dealt(contract year), so they should get a pretty good spect for him as well. I could see this team winning the AL East in 2-3 years.

[Fishercat]

Don't forget that Lance Carter went along with Baez to LA. Hendrickson going down after a shutout to start the year has not helped them any. They have talent to trade forpitching but keep getting these "prospects". The Royals are the worst but their pitching staff hasn't been what was on paper before ST. A lot of injuries is affecting that team. Good stuff Fisher!

Thanks for the complement and the comments. I edited the article to include Carter. Rep+ for the correction

[Providence A's]

There are still 6 days left in April (AKA the first month of the season)...I'm not at all concerned with anyone's record at this point.

[Wally Mo Pena]

nice recap fisher. I (unlike wilton) think that the rays will never contend in the AL East because it's impossible to get a full team of prospects to be productive in the big leagues in 4-5 years before they get priced out. See the old expos. They had a never ending string of prospects but couldn't hang because by the time the younger ones were starting to produce, they were losing the older guys to free agency or being forced to trade them by arbitration salaries. Huff was a guy who was supposed to be part of the first winning rays team, but he'll be gone now, and the beat rolls on.

on that note i wondered what your thoughts were on these two qeustions:

1) will the rays finish last? The orioles are off to a decent start, but they're pretty bad on paper, and could get worse at the deadline if they decide to sell off some high priced players. do the rays have a shot at them?

2) there's a lot of speculation that at least two teams will get contracted this year, because this is the last year that owners have that option with the labor agreement they have and they won't get it again for a while. The rays have finished out of last place once in their history and have almost no fans. Will they be on the copping block come july?

[McKain]

repping now (for effort), reading later.

[Fishercat]

1) will the rays finish last? The orioles are off to a decent start, but they're pretty bad on paper, and could get worse at the deadline if they decide to sell off some high priced players. do the rays have a shot at them?

2) there's a lot of speculation that at least two teams will get contracted this year, because this is the last year that owners have that option with the labor agreement they have and they won't get it again for a while. The rays have finished out of last place once in their history and have almost no fans. Will they be on the copping block come july?

For the first question, I personally believe they will barring some exceptional circumstances (read, mass injuries). Although the Rays are playing hurt right now, even when healthy, the O's have a similar, if more power based, offense. Tejada is the best player on either team, Mora's capable, Hernandez is good. Not to mention, they have the best reliever or starter on either team (Bedard and Ray), and although they should be close, I just don't believe enough in the Rays SP outside of Kazmir in terms of competing

Well, the two Florida teams are the best options. They are #29 and #30 as of right now in attendance, the two teams are simply not good right now, the owners seem fairly apathetic, the contraction of two teams makes it 14 in each league if the Brewers are moved back. KC could be an option, but they have some history, the Pirates have way too much history. Basically, if they do contract two teams soon, I don't see any better options than the Marlins and Rays. As for total organizational quality, KC is worse, but for fans?

[Kingdom]

If Kansas City had a product worth watching, it would be a different story. And I'll certainly go into more detail on that here soon.
I don't think Tampa has really ever had that, maybe their 1st season or the 1st season under Lou. At least the first couple of months of those seasons. The marlins certainly have had multiple seasons that in normal markets, should have attracted plenty of fans.

[love_that_reefer]

I can see the Rays competing for the AL East title and a possible WC in 3-4 years if and only if they get FA pitching and quit relying on these so called prospects. The Rays system is one of the bes at drafting everyday players but not pitching. This team is young enough and just got a new GM this year. You have to be patient.

The Rays can also finish ahead of the O's this year because the O's like last year will probably hit a wall and hit it hard whileas the Rays will be calling up players like Upton and Young and generating new life into the Rays lockeroom.

No teams will be contracted but possibly moved elsewhere.

[McKain]

In the realm of hitting, players like Cantu, Huff, Baldelli, and Crawford, along with Young in the minors, should provide a competent boost and a fearsome lineup in a few years.

As much as I love him, Rocco Baldelli should not really be mentioned in that sentence. He has suffered some substantial injuries, and has not even had a plate appearance in a major league regular season game since *October 3rd* of 2004. It's been over a year and a half since he has been in action, and there is no way to really categorize him as one of those great hitters who will form a fearsome lineup.

There is no way the Devil Rays get contracted, after they got a new GM and started actually making moves. A more likely candidate is the Twins, who can't get their own stadium, have a contract with the city that expires in the near future, and have a front office not really committed to putting money into the team. They'll be the Expos of a few years ago with a much stronger fanbase, a team with nowhere new to go,a nd no real way to stay where they are now (barring the citizens voting to raise taxes to pay for the stadium, which I don't see happening). Personally, I think nobody gets contracted, and I think Bud Selig ends up leavng the game soon and all contraction talk disappears entirely.

Good article, Waruv.

[missionhockey21]

I too am not so high on Baldelli and the potential impact he'll bring. The layoff has just been so long and he was already a player who had holes in his offensive game. This kind of timeoff from seeing consistent MLB pitching has to severely hamper his development at the plate sadly. But then again a lot of it will be determined by how much these injuries have effected his running game and in particular, at least producing solid EBH's.

And I actually liked the move for Tiffany and Jackson. Edwin Jackson was quite impressive this spring and while I don't think he'll ever live up to the hype once held for him, there has to be hope for him because he is young still. If he can just cut back on the walks, he can at least be effective which is a starting point for the Rays. But it won't be to the type of depth or level they'll need if they want to compete soon (which they need to because as Wally pointed out, these kids will outprice themselves). Hopefully they can move Huff for a some-what proven young starter that they can add with Kazmir to build their rotation around.

Great article Fish.