Have Sox solved Rivera, or is the closer just slipping?

[BuckFoston]

The question isn't whether the Red Sox know something about Mariano Rivera that everybody else in baseball has yet to figure out. It's pretty clear -- painfully so in New York -- that the Red Sox know something. Oh, brother, do they know.

The question now is whether Rivera, the Yankees' once-unbeatable super closer, can do anything about it.

An early season series that was looking all too familiar -- the Yankees won the first two games, the Red Sox looked haggard and beaten, New York fans were returning to their loud and obnoxious selves -- was flipped on its ear flap in the ninth inning Wednesday when Rivera collapsed for the second straight day, this time allowing the Sox to win, 7-3. He has blown a save opportunity the past four times he's faced Boston -- two this week and the two in the Yanks' epic collapse in the American League Championship Series.

So what's up with Mo and what do the Sox know?

Several theories are being floated.

• The Sox have seen Rivera more than anyone else. Not counting Spring Training, the Yanks and Red Sox have played 55 times since the start of the 2003 season. "We see him too much," Boston manager Terry Francona said earlier this week. Of course, the Orioles and the Blue Jays see a lot of Rivera, too, and that doesn't do them any good.

• Rivera is spooked by the Sox. He's blown six of his past 11 saves chances against the Sox. Since the beginning of 2001, almost half of Rivera's blown saves -- 12 of 28 -- have come against the Red Sox. His control seems to go haywire against the Sox. In 11 innings against the Orioles in '04, for example, he walked one batter. In 10 2/3 innings against Boston in '04, he walked six. And he walked three Boston hitters Wednesday. "I think, maybe, at times, he tries a little too hard against them," Yankees pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre said.

• Rivera is tipping his pitches. The Yanks don't believe this is true, and there's good reason to believe it's not. In fact, when Rivera is at his best, most hitters know what's coming anyway. It's the cutter, and it's usually unhittable. And if he is tipping his pitches and the Sox know about it, they're not talking.

• He's hurt. Rivera was bothered by elbow soreness in Spring Training, but he still had a fine March, tossing seven scoreless innings. And Yankees manager Joe Torre knows better than to risk any type of long-term injury to his best reliever.• He's just not up to speed yet. True, Rivera was limited somewhat by the sore elbow in spring. He's probably not as good yet as he will be. That still doesn't explain his problems against the Sox for the past couple of years.

• He's getting old. Rivera turned 35 last November. The list of relievers that old who remained as dominant as Rivera has been is short [see chart]. Rivera has averaged 41 saves a year over the past eight years. Only six pitchers, in 12 different seasons, have had that many saves over the age of 35.• The Sox are lucky, and Rivera isn't. Well, yeah, there's that possibility, too. If you believe in luck and curses and that sort of thing.

All of this might be easier to explain if Rivera hadn't just had arguably the best year of his career. He appeared in 74 games and notched 53 saves in '04, both career bests, with a 1.95 ERA. His cutter is still the most feared pitch in the game.

But there's no denying it: The Sox know how to beat him. Granted, it's not always pretty. But they're doing it with a combination of patience, good baseball and timely hitting. Wednesday, Mark Bellhorn snuck a ground single through the right side of the infield, Johnny Damon blooped a hit to short right field and Edgar Renteria flared one to short left. Put the three walks in there and a key error and Rivera was doomed.

"I'm a human being," Rivera said after Tuesday's blown save, when he gave up a home run to Boston's Jason Varitek. "I bleed. I'm not a machine."

Can Rivera snap out of his Sox-induced slump? Can he overcome familiarity and his own head, advancing age and any possible soreness he might have to turn the luck his way?

We'll find out soon enough. Monday, the Yanks and Sox resume their season series in Fenway Park.http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200....rivera/1.html

[RLA68]

35 years old, I think he could go at least 4-5 more years if he wanted to. My thing though is that he needs another out pitch. I am not saying necessarily to get on par with his cutter but something to take the Boston hitters off balance. I have suggested in the past a curveball.

Unfortunately, I am just a fan that posts on a Yankee Forum.

[bwitty24]

Oh god...Rivera, where to start. I am very disappointed with him. What angered me more is that when he was on sportscenter, he said something along the lines of, "in order to be successful in baseball you have to adjust". Then asked if he meant "that he had to adjust to the red sox" he replied with, "I don't have to adjust for no one" or somewhere along those lines. Well I hate to break it to him but he has to do something if he wants to ever get a save. Completely disgusted.

[General]

I'd say it's a little bit of both,