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Thread: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

  1. #76
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    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    Quote Originally Posted by Sisyphus View Post
    Why? Nady had a career year last year he will not repeat. Swisher also had an abnormally bad year that he should not repeat as his BABIP was ridiculously low.

    It would not be surprising in the least to see Swisher outperform Nady next year.
    What evidence do you have to think that Swisher will bounce back? All I see is declining numbers backed by a ridiculous contract. Nady is entering his prime and when given regular playing outperforms any "good" year Swisher had. Nady with a slight regression is still far better than Swisher. Nady needs regular playing time and it wouldn't be good for the team if Swisher was stealing playing time from him.

  2. #77

    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    Quote Originally Posted by cjkalt View Post
    You guys really think Boston is going to sit here and watch NY get every big gun? Tex is coming to Boston, if we was going to Anaheim he woulda already taken their 8 yr 160 mil+ offer? He is waiting for Boston to up its offer (which probably isn't at 8 and 20 yet) to something he can live with. He wants to win, if he just wanted money he would have extended with Texas when they offered him that huge deal. He wants money and a winner, and his wife wants to be near home.
    I love how you're absolutely sure Tex is coming to BOS. He may, but it isn't a slam dunk. We could easily afford an 8/250 contract, especially if it's slightly backloaded. NY would give him money, a winner, and close to home too.
    I hope you guys take Petitte back because apparently sheets and his 3.09 era in 31 starts isn't good enough for you...

    good luck with that end of the rotation, pettite will start to breakdown too
    Again, you're only looking at the upside. What happens when Sheets is done after 17 starts and his replacement has a 5+ ERA? How do you know Sheets will fare as well in the AL East as he did in the NL Central.

    31 starts and 3.09 ERA is such a strawman arguement, it's not funny.

    Pettitte may breakdown, it's true, but Sheets isn't this knight in shining armour here. He's good, but is very risky.

  3. #78

    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    Quote Originally Posted by love_that_reefer View Post
    What evidence do you have to think that Swisher will bounce back? All I see is declining numbers backed by a ridiculous contract. Nady is entering his prime and when given regular playing outperforms any "good" year Swisher had. Nady with a slight regression is still far better than Swisher. Nady needs regular playing time and it wouldn't be good for the team if Swisher was stealing playing time from him.
    Swisher's LD% either improved or stayed the same, don't recall off the top of my head. His BABIP dropped to insanely low levels indicating he was unlucky. That is a huge predictor of fluke.

    Nady, conversely did not see an increase in his LD% but a large spike in his BABIP indicating he was very lucky. Nady did not miraculously become a 128 OPS+ batter overnight, and even once he got to the Yankees, performed much like he had during his career. In his career, Swisher has outperformed Nady. Nady has only had one year in which he was comparable to Swisher's best two years. Swisher is also 2 years younger too.

    Nady playing to his abilities is worse than Swisher playing to his. It's as simple as looking inside the numbers.

  4. #79
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    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    I have a huge problem with you calling it luck. Swisher wasn't a good hitter to begin with. Nady is entering his prime in his 7th season. Improvement is going to happen. Nady is a career .280 hitter, its not luck. Just where are you looking to suggest Swisher outperformed Nady? Because Swisher can hit for slightly more power? Or because he can take a walk? I will take the hits over the walks. Nady is a much better all around hitter. Swisher has a horrible year last year in a very hitter friendly park. No way should he be stealing anyone's ABs. He simply isn't that good. Ozzie Guillen saw this and benched his ass. Kenny Williams saw this and traded him.

    Want to look at the numbers?

    Player A: .244/.354/.451, 28 HRs, 86 RBI
    Player B: .280/.335/.458, 21 HRs, 78 RBI

    Which player are you going to take?

  5. #80

    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    Quote Originally Posted by love_that_reefer View Post
    I have a huge problem with you calling it luck. Swisher wasn't a good hitter to begin with.
    Two years of OPS+ of >120 says otherwise. He's had to average years, two good years, and one bad year. His BABIP in the bad year was abnormally low. That's bad luck.

    Nady is entering his prime in his 7th season. Improvement is going to happen. Nady is a career .280 hitter, its not luck.
    Improvement usually occurs before age 29. He also has a career .335 OBP which is not anywhere close to good, and OBP is a pretty damn good stat while BA well, sucks a lot.

    Even then, when with PIT, he hit .330 last year, which is a .50 jump, and not realistic. When he got to the NYY, he batted .268, and in fact put up an almost exact similar line as his career. What was the difference? When in PIT, his BABIP was insanely high for no apparent reason, and then when he got to NY, it went back to normal levels. That suggests fluke.

    Just where are you looking to suggest Swisher outperformed Nady? Because Swisher can hit for slightly more power? Or because he can take a walk?
    Power and plate discipline, yes. That's why.
    I will take the hits over the walks.
    wait you're serious. I'm so sorry. You realize BA is a very fluctuating stat, and that doesn't tell you much at all how well a player controls the strike zone?
    Nady is a much better all around hitter.
    Except he's not.

    Swisher has a horrible year last year in a very hitter friendly park.
    He did, but he also had very good years before in an extreme pitchers park.

    No way should he be stealing anyone's ABs. He simply isn't that good.
    Well you value hits over walks, of course you'd think that. We have different ways of valuing players.

    Ozzie Guillen saw this and benched his ass. Kenny Williams saw this and traded him.
    And they may look quite foolish if Swisher rebounds as expected.

    Want to look at the numbers?

    Player A: .244/.354/.451, 28 HRs, 86 RBI
    Player B: .280/.335/.458, 21 HRs, 78 RBI

    Which player are you going to take?
    Player A: .244/.354/.451, 28 HRs, 86 RBI
    Player B: .280/.335/.458, 21 HRs, 78 RBI

    Player A: .805 OPS
    Player B: .793 OPS

    I'll take player A every time.

    But, do you also want to factor that Swisher played in an extreme pitchers park his first 4 years? I do. Let's look at park adjusted numbers for their career:
    Player A: 112 OPS+
    Player B: 108 OPS+

    And that's not factoring what appear to be fluke years for each player. Player A hands down is the better player.

    I rest my case. Problem is, if you think BA is a meaningful stat, which you are entitled to, we're not going to agree because stats like BA, RBI and wins are an awful way to measure a players ability IMO. We'll just be going around in circles because we value players differently, which happens.

  6. #81
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    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    Reefer is still stuck in the "BATTING AVERAGE IS THE BEST STAT EVER!" mode.
    I did a lot of good things as a sim league GM.

    Ah, give me something clever to say here.

  7. #82

    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    Quote Originally Posted by browntown653 View Post
    Reefer is still stuck in the "BATTING AVERAGE IS THE BEST STAT EVER!" mode.
    Oh. I remember being 16 too. (j/k)

  8. #83
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    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    Yes, I will take Nady and his .37 more in BA and just .19 less in OBP. I will always take the more well rounded hitter everyday of the week. You will be hard pressed to find a GM that wouldn't when the OBP's are so close together. When have I ever said BA is the best stat ever? I just go for better hitters. Nady is a better hitter than Swisher!! How is this even a debate?? Swisher played in a hitter's park on a good team last year and flat out sucked!! Nady is coming off a great year and Swisher coming off a godawful year. Pretend you know baseball, who are you going to start? You will take Player A, I would take Player B and I would most likely have more success. There is .12 difference in OPS and you would still take the .244 hitter. We definitely aren;t going to agree. I also love how a .335 OBP is no where close to good but a .354 is.

  9. #84
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    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    You take Nady then...look at the career numbers. Swisher has been the much better player. It was one bad season, he was out of position in the field and in the lineup and never fit in with the White Sox. I think he will do just fine.
    I did a lot of good things as a sim league GM.

    Ah, give me something clever to say here.

  10. #85
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    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    I am looking at the numbers and I see Nady as the much better WELL ROUNDED hitter. Nothing suggest to me Swisher is better. Its going to take more than 4 points in OPS+ to change my mind. Swisher will be playing out of position in NY and hit in the bottom half of the Yankees lineup. I will take hits over walks in the bottom half in the order. Hits move runners and drive in runs, walks don't. Stats have to be put in some kind of context. Swisher out of position and under the NY eye doesn't sound like a winner in my book. Especially after the awful year he just had. Nady is the more solid player so why should Swisher start over Nady?

  11. #86
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    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    He'll be playing 1B which isn't out of position for him!! The bottom half is fine, he won't be hitting leadoff like last season. Nady has been the better player once in his career. I'll take Swisher's track record here.
    I did a lot of good things as a sim league GM.

    Ah, give me something clever to say here.

  12. #87
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    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    Track record? I too will take the track record and go with Nady. Let me get this straight because this is very telling. Swisher's 4 point lead in OPS+ overcomes Nady's .37 lead in BA?? And yes Swisher will be playing out of position. Swisher came up as an OFer and has more games as an OFer. First base is not his natural position. And Swisher hit leadoff only 29 times last year. Why anyone would bat him leadoff is beyond me but yeah, that wasn't why he sucked. Yankees need Teixeira more and more as this debate goes on

  13. #88
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    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    Swisher's OPS+ 05-08 - 101, 125, 127, 92
    Nady's OPS+ 05-08 - 104, 102, 107, 128

    So Nady's had one much better season and one slightly better, while Swisher has had two much better. Plus Swisher is 2 years younger. I'll stick with him.
    I did a lot of good things as a sim league GM.

    Ah, give me something clever to say here.

  14. #89

    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    Quote Originally Posted by love_that_reefer View Post
    Yes, I will take Nady and his .37 more in BA and just .19 less in OBP. I will always take the more well rounded hitter everyday of the week. You will be hard pressed to find a GM that wouldn't when the OBP's are so close together. When have I ever said BA is the best stat ever? I just go for better hitters. Nady is a better hitter than Swisher!! How is this even a debate?? Swisher played in a hitter's park on a good team last year and flat out sucked!! Nady is coming off a great year and Swisher coming off a godawful year. Pretend you know baseball, who are you going to start? You will take Player A, I would take Player B and I would most likely have more success. There is .12 difference in OPS and you would still take the .244 hitter. We definitely aren;t going to agree.
    Nady is not more well rounded, he's quite poor at pitch selection. As noted by his below average OBP. Swisher gets on base more, and hits for more power. Outs are the most precious commodity in baseball, ergo you want to preserve them. Swisher is better at preserving them.

    Swisher also played in an extreme pitchers park for four years, yet you ignore that fact. He put up extremely good numbers during the latter two years he was there. That has just as much, if not more weight than last year, especially when his BABIP was so low.

    Pretend I know baseball? Heck do you watch baseball? Enjoy it? May I suggest something more suited to you like Golf instead? You have to account for the fact Swisher has spent almost his entire career playing in a park equivalent to PETCO. That will hurt his raw numbers, making him seem worse, or not as good as he is. If Nady and Swisher played on the same team, in the same park, and had the same luck, Swisher would outpace Nady by a large margin. Instead Swisher has played in a much more difficult park for hitters and has still outperformed Nady who has not played in parks that difficult to that extent. That's why OPS+ will account for that.

    2003 & 2005 ages 24 & 26: Nady played in PETCO, which is an extreme pitchers park. He put up lines of .267/.321/.391 and .261/.321/.439, so he developed a little more power. In 2004 he was hurt.

    2006 age 27: Nady played in a slight pitchers park in Shea. He had a .264/.326/.487 line, with the power coming because of the move out of PETCO. He still can't get on base. He also winds up playing for PIT that year, almost a neutral park at the time. His line is .300/.352/.409 indicating he may have learned some plate recognition, until you see his BABIP has jumped from .280 to .337, which indicates fluke.

    2007 age 28: Nady bats .278/.330/.476 in PIT, a slight pitchers park at this point, and his OBP reverts to normal confirming the hypothesis.

    2008 age 29: Nady still in a pitchers park in PIT bats .330/.383/.535, but upon inspection, his BABIP is .351 inidcating a downturn coming. He gets traded to NYY, which is a slight hitters park. Nady's BABIP reverts to normal, and he hits .268/.320/.474 along his career lines.

    2005 age 24: Swisher playing in a hitters park at the time Oakland Colliseum posts a .236/.322/.446 line, similar to Nady's age 24 season, but with more power in a hitters park.

    2006 age 25:Swisher in a slight pitchers park posts a .254/.372/.493 line better than any line Nady puts up in a full year. His BABIP is .283

    2007 age 26: Swisher in an extreme pitchers park posts a .262/.381/.455 line, with the power downturn due to the park. Compare to Nady's age 26 season of .261/.321/.439 in a similar setting.

    2008 age 27: Swisher posts an awful line of .219/.332/.410 in a hitters park. As covered, his BABIP is only .249, which is extremely below average. Nady's age 27 was .280/.337/.453 in what amounts to a pitchers park for comparison.

    That fluke year drags Swisher's numbers down because it was only his 4th full year. Even after that, he still has better career numbers. Is the year a sign of things to come? Logic and numbers would say no, and a rebound is due to occur. If that happens, you're likely to see a line similar to his age 25 season, and Nady is likely to post a year similar to his age 28 season. That means it's .268/.320/.474 vs .254/.372/.493. The latter number is extremely more valuable.

  15. #90

    Re: It's looking more and more like AJ Burnett is headed for pinstripes

    Quote Originally Posted by love_that_reefer View Post
    I am looking at the numbers and I see Nady as the much better WELL ROUNDED hitter. Nothing suggest to me Swisher is better. Its going to take more than 4 points in OPS+ to change my mind. Swisher will be playing out of position in NY and hit in the bottom half of the Yankees lineup. I will take hits over walks in the bottom half in the order. Hits move runners and drive in runs, walks don't. Stats have to be put in some kind of context. Swisher out of position and under the NY eye doesn't sound like a winner in my book. Especially after the awful year he just had. Nady is the more solid player so why should Swisher start over Nady?
    Swisher hits for more power and works the strike zone better. Nady has a better average. Who's the better all around hitter?

    I will take getting on base in any context, and Swisher is better than Nady at that. Walks make the pitcher work and preserve outs, much like hits do, save the making a pitcher work.

    Swisher is a natural 1B, that's where he'll be playing.

    Nady is not the more solid player. He just has the better average.

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