Mets win NL East; Why they won't go any further

[General]

I will be the first person to admit that the Mets 96 win season (they can still get win #97 today, but with Oliver Perez on the mound, its not likely) came as a surprise to me. I was expecting terrible starting pitching, a lack of clubhouse chemistry, and injuries. My expectations were met: Pedro Martinez had a very mediocre 4.48 ERA in the games he played, and the Mets were forced to rely on a perennial number 3 pitcher, Tom Glavine, to be their ace; Lastings Milledge has not mixed well with the veterans and Pedro's questioned Willy Randloph for bringing him back too soon; Pedro's out for 8 months and Floyd missed significant time. Nonetheless, the Mets were able to overcome all that and win a fairly tough NL East easily. Like the previous NL East champs, I believe the Mets will flop in the playoffs.

Somehow, Orlando Hernandez does not intimidate me as much as other Game 1 starters such as Johan, Barry Zito, and Jake Peavy. While Hernandez has been lights out in the playoffs (2.55 career postseason ERA), I would not want him to be the number one pitcher in ANY playoff rotation. The number two starter is Glavine, the number 3 in all those Braves' division championships behind Maddux and Smoltz. A 5.15 division series ERA from Glavine hardly helped the Braves' postseason woes and I doubt it will help the Mets now. The number 3 and 4 slots will be occupied by Steve Trachsel, the least intimidating starting pitcher in the majors, and 2006 surprise, John Maine. Neither have any playoff experience whatsoever. The pen is good, going from Wagner to Heilman to Chad Bradford, but I don't think I trust Pedro Feliciano or Darren Oliver with a tie ballgame in the 7th inning in game 5 of the NLDS. Could be just me though.

Steve Trachsel, looking very unintimidating

Last but not least, the Mets' offense. Unlike the Yankees (questionable pitching, amazing offense), the Mets are a solid/good group, but are hardly stellar 1-8. Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, and to some extent Shawn Green are all offensive threats, with Paul LoDuca also having a good year; but after them...Jose Valentin? Has anyone ever been afraid of Jose Valentin? Cliff Floyd in left is yet another injury waiting to happen, and he can't hit lefties worth a lick (.179 BA vs. LHP this season).

Prediction: Los Angeles (or San Diego, though I think the Pads take the West and LA the wild card) takes the series in 4.

[catman]

The fact that Steve Trachsel has been granted a leave of absence to take care of some family matters in California doesn't help the Mets set a rotation, either.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6018086
They are unsure of his return date, or how effective he'll be with this long layoff.
Heilman may be thrust into a starting role, weakening the bullpen a bit.

[General]

Yeah, I think Heilman has been the strongpoint of the pen so far, and to move him would certainly hurt.

[Looshius]

I'll admit the Mets pitching is very underwhelming at this point, especially with the loss of Pedro for the whole postseason. This will put them at a distinct disadvantage, but you can't deny that the Mets have by far the best lineup in the NL.

Reyes is the best leadoff man in the game and Lo Duca does a stellar job of moving him along every single time, which is why Reyes scored 122 runs. Beltran is a great 3 hitter who has proven that he can rise to the occasion in the postseason and carry a team. Delgado is one of the best pure hitters of our time with power to all fields.
Wright has proven that he is a big time player in the hardest city to play, so I see him breaking out in the postseason. Green has been swinging the bat very well since he was acquired and has had some very big hits. Valentin is having a shocking year at second base, playing solid defense and hitting with power nobody knew he had any more. My only question is left field, because to be honest I'd rather see Endy Chavez starting in the playoffs, because Floyd has been out most of the season and should not be sharp.

So, 1-8 the mets are the best lineup in the NL, and if they can jump out to early leads the way they did all season they should be in good shape for the playoffs, assuming the pitching can hold their opposition to 5 runs or fewer a game.

And the pitching worries me, but not that much. El Duque is not a bad choice for number one starter as he has been absolutely great pitching in the playoffs. He should be fine. Glavine is a bigtime pitcher as well, and when he is intense he is great. When he is in a pitching duel he rarely gives in first. And Trachsell, if he pitches, is suprisingly effective despite his apparent lack of any truly good pitch. He always manages to leave the game with the score reasonable, so even if he isn't great he is still effective. Maine has been another pleasant surprise and his solid 3.60 era proves it. Those 4 guys can get the job done and keep the scores reasonable, so the fate of the mets lies with the offense, which really is where the need it.

[General]

Neither Glavine nor El Duque were ever even number 2 starters for their teams.

[Looshius]

True enough, but I can see El Duque outdueling Derek Lowe in game 1, setting up Glavine vs. Maddux. This should be an interesting matchup, two great pitchers well passed their prime, but it's not like either is obviously superior at this point in their careers. Penny against Trachsell might sound like a mismatch, but the mets will score some runs off him and could definitely win this one. And Hong-Chih Kuo does not really bother me, especially the way Maine has pitched. The Mets may not have much pitching, but neither does LA, so I still see the Mets winning at least the first playoff series.

And like I said, no team has more than one dominant starter so I'm not worried until they get the the WS.

[Paradoxx]

Well, your El Duque vs Lowe argument is moot at this point. He's out of the series with a muscle tear. Anybody else wanna go down with an injury while we're at it? We're gonna have to call in Jose Canseco to pitch an inning or two at the rate we're losing starting pitchers.

Getting out of the NLDS is looking less and less likely.

[DirtyKash]

Don't be silly, Napa. You guys have been the best team in the NL all year long. In a short series, anything can happen especially with the four-headed monster of Reyes, Beltran, Wright and Delgado, you can never count out the Mets. It's not like the Dodgers pitching is that much better: Lowe can blow up anytime; Hong-Chih Kuo in game 2 has almost no experience; Maddux in game 3 as good as he has been he's still old as feck and could be torched up; Penny is fat and hurt. John Maine strikes out a lot of guys; Glavine can give you 7 solid innings; Trachsel is well Trachsel. But still, it's a short series and the Mets have the homefield advantage. I still like the Mets' chances in this series, but NY has to get it done before they get to the Dodgers bullpen.

[Paradoxx]

That's the thing. All this injury business is making the team one-dimentional. If the bats aren't hitting, the game is as good as lost, b/c there is no pitcher that can hold the damage to 2-3 runs. The only way we're winnig is if we can jump all over LA early, and then pray that our scrub pitchers don't fall apart until the bullpen can take over.

[realmofotalk]

Getting out of the NLDS is looking less and less likely.

Make that the NLCS and you were right.