Tom Verducci's picks for the 2006 season.

[DirtyKash]

I like some of Tom Verducci's picks, others less. Drumroll!

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/tom_verducci/03/28/preseason.predictions/index.html

To help you anticipate what else is coming your way, here are my 2006 predictions, complete with a look back at how the 2005 selections played out. Music not included.

AL MVP
2005: Vladimir Guerrero, Angels. A solid third-place finisher.
2006: Paul Konerko, White Sox. A power hitter in a power hitter's park can put up even bigger numbers if Jim Thome stays healthy.

NL MVP
2005: Albert Pujols, Cardinals. Got this one right.
2006: Pujols, Cardinals. He's that good folks -- an all-time great.

AL Cy Young Award
2005: Randy Johnson, Yankees. Won 17 games and finished second in strikeouts, but was shut out in the Cy voting.
2006: Rich Harden, Athletics. It may seem unusual to pick a guy who never has thrown 200 innings, but the same could have been said about Johan Santana in 2004.

NL Cy Young Award
2005: John Smoltz, Braves. Solid season (14-7, 3.06 ERA) but finished off the Cy charts.
2006: Jake Peavy, Padres. Still only 24 (born in the same year as Harden), Peavy already has an ERA title, a strikeout title, a .597 winning percentage and, according to baseball-reference.com, a Pedro Martinez-like career profile.

AL Rookie of the Year
2005: Huston Street, Athletics. Made me look good with a Rivera-style season.
2006: Delmon Young, Devil Rays. Tampa Bay won't be able to hold him back. I like Francisco Liriano of Minnesota and Justin Verlander of Detroit, but no starting pitcher has won this award since Dave Righetti in 1981.

NL Rookie of the Year
2005: Rickie Weeks, Brewers. The midseason callup did land on the ballot, though he finished seventh.
2006: Prince Fielder, Brewers. Big time power hitter should get plenty of at-bats, keeping a 30-home run season in reach.

AL Manager of the Year
2005: Eric Wedge, Indians. Finished a close second to the deserving winner, Ozzie Guillen.
2006: Ken Macha, Athletics. Oakland has the best depth it's had in years, and Macha must keep everyone productive.

NL Manager of the Year
2005: Felipe Alou, Giants. Not so good without that left fielder in the lineup.
2006: Grady Little, Dodgers. He has the right touch to bring back a team from a 91-loss season.

AL Home Run Champion
2005: Mark Teixeira, Rangers. Fell five home runs short.
2006: Teixeira, Rangers. He's just getting better.

NL Home Run Champion
2005: Adam Dunn, Reds. Finished third, 11 homers behind Andruw Jones.
2006: Derrek Lee, Cubs. That 2005 season was no fluke.

AL Batting Champion
2005: Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners. He hit .303 in a down year, finishing 11th.
2006: Derek Jeter, Yankees. Can it really be that he turns 32 in June? The career .314 hitter could get a boost with Johnny Damon in front of him.

NL Batting Champion
2005: Todd Helton, Rockies. The perennial contender finished fourth with a .320 average.
2006: Pujols, Cardinals. Here's the scary part: at 26, he's just now getting into his prime.

AL Most Pitching Wins
2005: Johnson, Yankees. Only three pitchers won more.
2006: Harden, Athletics. He takes his place as one of the five best aces in baseball.

NL Most Pitching Wins
2005: Smoltz, Braves. Seemed to wear down a bit after working in overdrive to re-condition himself to start.
2006: Mark Mulder, Cardinals. There are plenty of wins to be had pitching for the NL's best team.

AL Comeback Player
2005 Richie Sexson, Mariners. Huge season (39 homers, 121 RBIs) after his 2004 season ended with a shoulder injury after nine home runs.
2006: Jim Thome, White Sox. The lineup and the ballpark are too favorable for him not to have a big season.

NL Comeback Player
2005: Troy Glaus, Diamondbacks. Made good on the comeback prediction with 37 homers and 97 RBIs.
2006: Eric Gagne, Dodgers. His velocity isn't all the way back yet, but his off-speed stuff still is nasty.

AL Most Overrated
2005: Chan Ho Park, Rangers. Texas dumped him on San Diego for another overrated player, Phil Nevin.
2006: Jay Gibbons, Orioles. Not a bad player, but there was no reason for Baltimore to lock up a 29-year-old corner outfielder with a career .315 OBP and one 80-RBI season.

NL Most Overrated
2005: Raul Mondesi, Braves. And to think Atlanta began last season with this guy as an everyday outfielder.
2006: Jacque Jones, Cubs. An older Gibbons: a decent corner outfielder who doesn't get on base enough or produce enough runs.

AL Most Underrated
2005: Travis Hafner, Indians. No longer qualifies after fifth-place showing on MVP ballot.
2006: Jorge Cantu, Devil Rays. His defense is shaky at second base, but this guy can flat-out mash.

NL Most Underrated
2005: Brad Lidge, Astros. With 42 saves, established himself as one of the game's premier closers.
2006: Jason Bay, Pittsburgh. The attention will come if the Pirates finally manage a winning season.

AL Breakout Player
2005: Harden, Athletics. He was on his way to a big season before getting hurt.
2006: Felix Hernandez, Mariners. Easiest call. Baseball's Next Big Thing, a once-in-a-generation pitcher.

NL Breakout Player
2005: David Wright, Mets. He arrived right on time with an MVP-type of year: .306, 27, 102.
2006: Edwin Encarnacion, Reds. With Wright, Encarnacion, Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals, Chad Tracy of the Diamondbacks and Garrett Atkins of the Rockies, the hot corner in the NL is stocked with young stars on the rise.

AL Surprise Team
2005: Indians. The Indians definitely were the surprise team, even though they went home instead of to the playoffs with 93 wins.
2006: Devil Rays. You read it here first: a franchise record 72 wins. And free parking!

NL Surprise Team
2005: Diamondbacks. You bet they were a surprise: they improved by 26 wins.
2006: Brewers. The Brewers can be on the cusp of a wild-card spot with upper-80s wins.

AL Disappointing Team
2005: Athletics. I thought they'd win in the mid-80s and miss the playoffs. They won 88 and missed the playoffs.
2006: Indians. Similarly, I think the Indians, who took a big leap forward last year, with take a smaller step backward with five to 10 fewer wins.

AL Division Winners
2005: Yankees, Twins, Angels. I'll have the Meat Loaf special: two-out-of-three ain't bad.
2006: Yankees, White Sox, Athletics.

NL Division Winners
2005: Braves, Cardinals, Giants. More Meat Loaf, please!
2006: Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers.

AL Wild Card
2005: Red Sox. Again.
2006: Red Sox. And again.

NL Wild Card
2005: Marlins. Collapsed down the stretch.
2006: Mets. As long as Martinez makes his 30 starts.

ALCS
2005: Yankees over Red Sox. Both teams watched it on TV.
2006: White Sox over Athletics. While New York and Boston settle into their Barcaloungers again.

NLCS
2005: Braves over Giants. Atlanta's record in playoff series since the 1999 World Series: 1-7 (.125). Its record in playoff games since then: 11-23 (.324).
2006: Cardinals over Braves. Nice way to break in a new ballpark.

World Series
2005: Yankees over Braves. First-round knockout victims.
2006: White Sox over Cardinals. More angst for Cubs fans.

[griffeyfan3]

How exactly is Brad Lidge and Jason Bay underrated?

[McKain]

because people don't see Jason Bay as the top 5 MLB OF he is.

[DirtyKash]

2006: Pujols, Cardinals. Here's the scary part: at 26, he's just now getting into his prime.

I always get a kick out of people throwing Pujols' age around as 26. He's really between 29 to 31, it's not much of a secret. Guess it's not a big deal when you can hit like him.

[love_that_reefer]

29 or 31? Where do you get that number? He's not one of the guys who came over on a boat for god's sake. Bay is not quite top 5 OFer but he is getting closer and closer each year.

[HollywoodLeo]

NL Cy Young Award
2006: Jake Peavy, Padres. Still only 24 (born in the same year as Harden), Peavy already has an ERA title, a strikeout title, a .597 winning percentage and, according to baseball-reference.com, a Pedro Martinez-like career profile.

Damn straight

[love_that_reefer]

I always get a kick out of people throwing Peavy's age around as 24. He's really between 28 to 30, it's not much of a secret. Guess it's not a big deal when you can pitch like him.

[HollywoodLeo]

wtf are you talking about LTR?

[Dam8610]

wtf are you talking about LTR?

This:

I always get a kick out of people throwing Pujols' age around as 26. He's really between 29 to 31, it's not much of a secret. Guess it's not a big deal when you can hit like him.

29 or 31? Where do you get that number? He's not one of the guys who came over on a boat for god's sake. Bay is not quite top 5 OFer but he is getting closer and closer each year.

I always get a kick out of people throwing Peavy's age around as 24. He's really between 28 to 30, it's not much of a secret. Guess it's not a big deal when you can pitch like him.

[HollywoodLeo]

This:

Yeah, I just saw that.

I simply made my quick reply then saw his right after...then just now read the rest of the thread.

[DirtyKash]

29 or 31? Where do you get that number? He's not one of the guys who came over on a boat for god's sake.

Pujols came over at "16" (quotation marks are essential) with his father and settled in the latino hotbed of Kansas City. He wasn't going to get drafted - he didn't have the attributes that scouts look for: speed, arm strength, etc. Nobody knew about him. So he manipulates his age, enrolls at a high school, and worst case scenario, he gets to show off his skills in high school in hopes of maybe catching the eye of a scout. Evidently, it wasn't enough, he didn't come close to getting drafted, so he goes to a community college, where he dominates. The nearby Cards take a flyer on him as a "19 year old" and draft him in the 13th round.

Hey, it's no surprise that when Alfonso Soriano was traded, his real age came out as 28 instead of 26. Danny Almonte did a good job of hiding his age in Little League, but they found out the truth after the LLWS. As far as Orlando Hernandez, that story is well known

The only thing these guys have to prove their age is a "birth certificate" and their word, as opposed to certified hospital birth records for Americans like Peavy. But I'm sure once Pujols gets traded, someone will head to the D.R., dig through the public records down there and uncover the truth.

But, as I said, it doesn't matter since he's the best hitter there is. How long his career will ultimately last is a discussion for the future.

[love_that_reefer]

So out of high school when he is supposed to be four years older than the kids he is playing against, he can't dominate? Too many hole in your theory bub! Saying Danny Amonte did a good job is dumb. He got caught! Hernandez is one of those guys who came over in a boat.

[DirtyKash]

So out of high school when he is supposed to be four years older than the kids he is playing against, he can't dominate?

Did I say that he didn't dominate in high school? No.

I'm saying that in high school, as a 16-18 year old, he didn't do enough to get drafted. So he goes to junior college.

If the scouts thought that a 16-18 year old high schooler wasn't worthy of being looked at, imagine what they would think of a 20-22 year old high schooler? Even less likely to get drafted. His stock would be even lower.

[love_that_reefer]

Steve Finley was an average Ofer here in my hometown and wasn't thought of at all by any MLB scouts. I should know since my dad was one of those scouts at the tiem. Then he goes to SIU and works his ass off. To think he is older just because he was born in the D.R> is just silly and just because he didn't get drafted out of high school (which is a hard ****ing thing to do) doesn't mean much. And to think he didn't get drafted because he was a shity 20 year old high schooler is just mind ****ing!

[DirtyKash]

Come on. A guy who's supposedly 21 years old in his rookie year and hits .330 with 40 HR and 130 RBI didn't even get looked at in high school? I can buy that for a 24-year old. For a "21"-year old from the D.R., I have my doubt.