Trade Deadline Discussion: Florida Marlins

[Fishercat]

OK, pretend (or if it's Sunday, don't) you are the General Manager of the Florida Marlins, Larry Beinfest. Improbably, every team in the NL went 1-1 in their last two games so the standings are the same GB wise. You're 5.5 games back of Atlanta in the East (4 in the loss column) but only 2.5 games back of either Chicago or the struggling Nationals in the Wild Card race. At the least, you are in the race for two playoff spots. The problem is, you're one of seven teams fighting for those two spots.

It's 3:00 PM and you're on the line with both Theo Epstein (BOS) and Kenny Williams (CHW). Both GMs are still steady on their offers from a few days ago reported nationwide. Boston's willing to give up SP Bronson Arroyo and Prospect Anibal Sanchez while Chicago (AL) is willing to deal RP Damaso Marte and Prospect Brandon McCarthy. Sanchez is ripping up AA hitters and McCarthy has dipped his feet in the MLB waters. All you have to give up is A.J. Burnett and neither team will take Mike Lowell on.

A.J. Burnett's status is this: He will not sign an extension for anyone. He knows he will test the market and with pitching as it is, he's not giving up 10 million dollar potential to make your trading life easier. You know if you don't trade him, all you'll get is a draft pick from the team who signs him. However, without him, the odds of your team making the playoffs take a dive with Dontrelle struggling and Beckett being an injury risk in the past few years. And who knows how long Moheler stays up anyway? If you trade him, you can almost kiss the playoffs goodbye.

You have an hour until the deadline falls as you're keeping both ears on the phones for GMs and one eye each on the HoF proceedings and the game below you as the Marlins are winning their rubber game versus the Nats and trying to pull within 1.5 games of the WC. The question is, as Larry Beinfest, do you pull the trigger on one of the two Burnett deals (either BOS or CHW) or not. If you do, do you then proceed to try and deal a few other Marlins to interested teams at the last minute, such as Encarnancion and maybe even Lowell or do you just keep the rest of the team, also, which deal do you take? If you decide not to trade Burnett, then do you trade for help depleting your farm but giving yourself the best shot possible or stick with the team you have, which many people believe to be underachieving.

What do you do?

[Kingdom]

Trick the Red Sox, turn it into a three way deal where the black sox end up sending Contreras to Boston (while they give up something to the black sox), Arroyo goes to Florida along with Marte and McCarthy. Granted, that's just not probable. I honestly don't think they'll make the playoffs. People aren't hitting for them, Willis just now finally had a quality start as of late and Beckett has seen the DL twice in recent memory. I say they go with the white sox's offer(mainly cause Arroyo is just sucking) and run from there.

Marte-Mota-Jones is a very good trio to end games. Even if they dealt Burnett, for that package, they're not out of it by any means.

[redsrbetter]

I say they are not out of it if I deal Burnett. Who will I have start in his place? I would do the Reds Sox deal, then it would be Arroyo taking Burnett's spot. Arroyo is virtually a 4.00 ERA type pitcher that will get you through 6 innings. That is a decent start, and should be good enough for this offense. Burnett is a 3.50 ERA type pitcher who will get you the innings as well. He will also strike out a lot more batters, but he is gone next season. On top of Arroyo I would get Sanchez, who is dominating AA with more than 1 K/9 and a microscopic 1.31 ERA. I say this kid has a future.

Admittedly, the Marlins will have a tougher time making it to the playoffs without Burnett, but the team has not made it a sure thing. if we were all but guaranteed a playoff spot, then I would be talking differently. That is not the case, so the deal with the Sox in Red would keep me in the race and give me a solid future at the same time.

Theo, you have a deal!

[Fishercat]

The Marlins win and get closer to the Nats in the WC Race, any updates guys?

[Kingdom]

If the Manny three way happened to go down, Florida's choices just got reduced to one.

[redsrbetter]

well looks like the Manny 3 way is not going down. Probably because I already gave the Sox Burnett and the Sox know they can win it all now!

[missionhockey21]

All you have to give up is A.J. Burnett and neither team will take Mike Lowell on.

As casually as that is put, if I am the Marlins GM and in the thick of a race, I hold onto Burnett. Sure the players mentioned in both proposed deals are very appealing (especially McCarthy) but as the Marlins proved a few seasons ago, pitching wins in the playoffs. With the Marlins younger impact players and the potential that they will build up momentum as the season draws to an end with their sometimes enthusiastic play, I am going to keep what works. Let's not forget that the Marlins won the world series WITHOUT AJ Burnett due to him being on the DL with having to get TJS. I would be liking our chances even more so with a guy like AJ in the rotation if we make it this year. With his low ERA and dominant strikeout totals, this is just the kind of guy I want pitching in the post season.

A.J. Burnett's status is this: He will not sign an extension for anyone. He knows he will test the market and with pitching as it is, he's not giving up 10 million dollar potential to make your trading life easier.

Without another team taking the Lowell contracts off of our backs, unless the prospect(s) in question blow me away and will impact the future in a franchise changing way, I stick with AJ still. Let's face it, the Marlins ownership will play this same song and dance year after year. A player becomes expensive and they soon leave town. You win while you can and with the potential that this rotation carries as is, you keep it together, hope you win and then get old AJ to have warm and fuzzy thoughts of the Marlins when the offseason approaches.

As for what I would do other than this... my main focus would be finding an above average reliever or two to add to the pen that will not cost me one of the top prospects such as Hermida or Olsen. Just like the Marlins aren't playing to potential, so are players like Mike Lowell. I would bank on the chance that as the race heats up, so does his bat. He is not this bad of a hitter as he has proven over his career and is capable of much more. Will he hit to that level? Maybe not. But I would hope he can at least be semi-productive. It's not worth ditching him and his under-performing bat if it means the team who will be getting him will also be getting AJ Burnett.

Keep the team together as a whole while making small moves that could benefit. This team is good enough to win the wild card if they play to their potential and Burnett needs to be apart of the team if they want to reach the post season.