James Loney to the Rays

[realmofotalk]

Loney came to the Red Sox as a part of August's blockbuster trade with the Dodgers. On the year, 28-year-old hit .249/.293/.336 with six homers in 465 plate appearances for the two clubs.

Read more at MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Great, just because it's the Rays, he's going hit .349/.393/.536 with 30 homers against all logic.

[Kingdom]

They work miracles. Loneypower is beyond miracles, though.

[catman]

He is a good defender, but his bat is nothing special. A #6 hitter at best.

[Tobywan]

According to Friedman they didn't get Loney for his offense.

"He's a hitter first, power second, and we're fine with that," Friedman said. "We think if he stays with that approach that it will be a very additive offensive piece with the profile and the contact and different things that he does, and you layer on the defense on top of it and we feel like he's going to help us win games."

At least I had some news to read while I was in the hospital AGAIN and on my birthday no less.....2012 has not been kind to me.

[realmofotalk]

James Loney's Spring Training stats with the Rays:
.228 Avg, 1 HR, 5 RBI

According to Friedman they didn't get Loney for his offense.

Which would be fine if only Loney played shortstop or catcher, where his offense wouldn't be Wins Below Replacement Level.

[HollywoodLeo]

I hate WAR because it's like a strawman argument. The mythical "replacement" the stat compares the player to doesn't even exist much like the argument a strawman argument is arguing against doesn't really exist.

[realmofotalk]

To put in terms you are familiar with, there's nothing mythical about the Jesus Guzmans of the league, a career minor leaguer that you plug into a position because you had nothing better at the time and proves himself over time to be a (*gasp*) zero-WAR player.

[HollywoodLeo]

Except Jesus Guzman is not the replacement for everyone who gets injured much like "i think Craig Davis is going to be a star" was not the opinion of every Chargers fan.

[Tobywan]

I am not one of those that has completely jumped onthe sabermetrics bandwagon, I do think there is a little you can "predict" with comparisons but there are too many other factors along with just sheer dumb luck that can account for any given team or player's success in any given season.

Joe Maddon has had a decent run of getting good production out of not so great production players and considering that Pena wasn't the Pena of old last year I doubt Loney could do much worse. When I say the Rays didn't get him for his offense, offense isn't the main thing the Rays rely on as to be realistic they can't....for the most part they have never had some big 35+/ 120 RBI guy as a long term player. They are hoping that is Longoria, his being healthy will be a big factor but considering they still managed a 90 win season without him for most of it, if he doesn't get hurt that will be much more value.

[HollywoodLeo]

Don't misunderstand me. I'm not against sabermetrics. In fact, while I don't pretend to have a complete grasp of all of them I pay attention to much of it and see value in many of the metrics that come out of it.

I just don't place a lot of value specifically in "WAR", and I think the stat has become vastly overrated as fan and analysts alike have jumped on the bandwagon.

I think the fact that you can blindly look at the outcome and proclaim one individual has supposedly added X number of wins to the win column has led to everyone jumping on the WARwagon. Fans love it when you can credit an individual for team wins, which is why the W/L record is the most overrated individual stat amongst the more conventional stats. (And why you see QBs in football constantly credited for their team's accomplishments....or blamed for the lack of them).

But, yeah, you really can't use anything to predict within 100 percent accuracy how someone will play in the future. This holds true for sabermetrics, relying on the more conventional stats, or even gut-based scouting of just watching the player. Since nobody is a proven fortune teller the best we have to go on is trying to analyze how well the player has performed thus far. From there it's a matter of blindly hoping he performs in the future at least as well as he has in the past.

[realmofotalk]

You call it sabermetrics, when it's really just things that a major league 1B should be able to do, like hit the ball hard or get on base, neither of which Loney is good at.

[HollywoodLeo]

Not saying Loney is any good. He sucks.

I was just ranting about WAR.

[Kingdom]

James Loney is a taller version of...Alex Cora.


I remember when Reefer touted Loney and his mighty gap power

[Tobywan]

If the Rays can get their usual (in recent years anyway) 2-3 decent run producers which this season appears those will be coming from 3B, SS or the OF, my first baseman ( and catcher) can suck all day long. That is, as long as more bases/runs/wins aren't being given up as produced.

Of course as usual barring any unforeseen circumstances such as multiple injuries to starters/pitchers, the GM/owner coming down with a sudden mental illness and firing Madden mid-season or FL dropping off into the ocean. Then, nothing I said applies and we're completely screwed.