Cards close to trading for Willis?

[Slyder]

My God, they've been lucky this year

Record: 53-41
Pyth Record: 48-46

Same as Boston eerily enough in terms of the difference (+5)

Their offense and defense are in the middle third of the majors and they are a relatively mediocre (average) team. With Pujols back, they should improve production, but according purely to Runs Scored/Against, that's what they are.

And I'm not afraid of their player base. They have a total of three players who scare me: Pujols, Rolen, and Carpenter.

Whats Cincy's Pyth Rec?

Plus anyone wonder what the Reds Record MIGHT BE if we didnt have the worse game day manager in baseball right now making important decisions?

[CincyRedsFan30]

I think the Reds' Pyth Record is three or four games under .500.

[Fishercat]

Minaya still sucks

[CincyRedsFan30]

Oh yeah? Well, we'll we will see how he does with the Mets over the next few years.

And I seriously hope if he does well no one tries to discredit him because of the team's payroll. That would mean we would have to discredit Theo for all of his good work.

If we had to do that, coupled with Beane's team never getting past the first round of the playoffs, DePodesta's utter failures and the seemingly overrated job guys like Shapiro have done, it would be a sad day for all of the Beane Disciples.

[realmofotalk]

Is that a diss toward Shapiro? Shapiro got Travis Hafner and defeated communism with one hand tied behind his back!

[CincyRedsFan30]

You better believe it's a diss at him. It is looking like the job he has done has been severely overrated. He has Boone as his 3B. He has a pitching staff full of mostly question marks. I could go on, but I think it would make me as sick to my stomach as Jerry Narron's managing does.

[HollywoodLeo]

Oh yeah? Well, we'll we will see how he does with the Mets over the next few years.

And I seriously hope if he does well no one tries to discredit him because of the team's payroll. That would mean we would have to discredit Theo for all of his good work.

If we had to do that, coupled with Beane's team never getting past the first round of the playoffs, DePodesta's utter failures and the seemingly overrated job guys like Shapiro have done, it would be a sad day for all of the Beane Disciples.

Beane's teams are constantly in the playoffs. Once a team gets there it's pretty much a crap shoot.

Do you think it's impossible for a GM to do a good job without a good payroll? If not, can you name me one GM you're impressed with that isn't in a large market?

[CincyRedsFan30]

Beane's teams are constantly in the playoffs. Once a team gets there it's pretty much a crap shoot.

Do you think it's impossible for a GM to do a good job without a good payroll? If not, can you name me one GM you're impressed with that isn't in a large market?

I don't think it's a crap shoot at all. I think clutch and gutty players who are plucked out by GMs with good "Scouts Eyes" for talent are the ones who have the most success in the playoffs. Obviously the payroll of a team can play a big factor too, but it goes far beyond that.

And the Cards aren't in a large market. They just have great fans and a great owner and GM.

As for a team who does well without a big payroll: look at the Florida Marlins. They have won multiple World Series Championships over the last few years with very small payrolls. They are constantly abused for cutting payroll and such but they always seem to re-load on their way to another Championship. Even this year when they were expected to be as putrid as the Royals, they are playing above "expectations."

[missionhockey21]

You better believe it's a diss at him. It is looking like the job he has done has been severely overrated. He has Boone as his 3B. He has a pitching staff full of mostly question marks. I could go on, but I think it would make me as sick to my stomach as Jerry Narron's managing does.

He does have Andy Marte waiting in the wings for thirdbase, so I think we can excuse the play of Boone while they are being careful not to rush Marte.

[CincyRedsFan30]

But he is ruining the team's chances of winning right now by playing Boone.

You then have guys taken by Jocketty who either "gut out production"(who don't seem to be that good) or are simply great(Scott Rolen at 3B, Pujols at 1B).

There is a reason his offensive methodology yieleded just as good if not better results than the Reds' offense did prior to Kearns/Lopez even being traded. Pujols is a big part of it, but some of it has to go to his "Scouts Eye." Aaron Boone doesn't fit into that category.

[Fishercat]

The difference between Theo and Minaya, namely, is that Theo has been able to find low to mid level free agents who have gave great returns, while Minaya really hasn't so far.

If you look on the Red Sox payroll, Epstein got guys for low or middling salaries who turned out to be prime contributors. David Ortiz, Bill Mueller, Mark Loretta, Todd Walker, Mike Timlin, Tony Graffanino, Dave Roberts, and so on and so forth.

If you look at the Mets payroll this year, Minaya's first successful year, you have limited players in terms of Minaya acquiring them at quality market value at low cost to their team. Duanar Sanchez, Xavier Nady, and what else? Jose Valentin's been a nice pickup. Arguably Inning Endy Chavez. Darren Oliver's been a pleasant surprise in the pen. But most of his major contributors were either

A. In the farm system prior to arrival
B. Cost a lot in trade to bring over (in salary and talent)
C. Or were bought for the highest price.

Basically, if you look at major contributors (I'll ignore pen guys, although it must be said he's found gems there in Oliver and Feliciano this year), here is how it looks for Minaya

Pedro Martinez - FA
Tom Glavine - There beforehand, FA
Reyes: Signed in 1999
Wright: Drafted in 2001
Delgado: Traded for because of salary and for Mike Jacobs (who seems to be having a similar year
Beltran: FA
Lo Duca: Trade, and hasn't been that great anyway.

Theo seems to be able to find everyday, above-average contributors at necessary positions (and, much like Minaya, takes full advantage of his resources an uses them well), I haven't seen that from Omar in either locale.

[Fishercat]

Their offense is 12th in the majors, not that amazing.

And look at their division and record. Does it really matter if they play Boone or Marte? Hell, Pujols wouldn't bring that team up. We know Hafner hasn't.

And I hope that Scout's Eye can find some pitching more than Carpenter, because unless he has a good 2nd and 3rd SP to go with Carp, they'll fold like a paper boat in the playoffs.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I'm sorry, but that stuff doesn't fly with me. He had some good players there before he arrived and yet the team has been awful fairly consistently for years until he arrives. I thiink it has a lot to do with him, even if he hasn't gotten guys at below market value, etc. Until he starts to falter as GM of the Mets, I'm going to have to say he is doing a very good job.

But basically you are telling me that if the Mets make the playoffs and do well over the next several years that much of it doesn't have to do with Minaya after the poor performances of the Mets before he came in as GM? I'm sorry, but I attribute it more to him finding players who mesh well together and might just be clutch performers.

And you just proved that their offense is above average. Exactly my point. I heard MANY saying the Cards' offense would be BAD this year. Oops. Looks like Walt wins again.

As for the pitching...I think this rumor coming true will help out to a degree. And we all know guys like Suppan and Marquis are performing below career norms and could well "progress to the mean" somewhat before the year is out.

And in the offseason the Cards will likely just load up on some talented FA. They find a way every offseason to remain the class of the NL Central and until that changes, praise is definitely something they deserve.

The Sox better worry about making the playoffs in the tough AL though. They might not have to end worrying about the Cards folding like paper in the playoffs if they aren't even there.

[Fishercat]

Show me many posts where someone said the Cards offense would be worse than 15th in the league.

And I'm not convinced that if Jim Duquette made these exact same moves, that the team would suddenly suck. The core of the team is either from prior acquisitions or based on a large payroll. Everything came together recently with the core. Reyes became a more complete player, Wright progressed to an elite 3B, Beltran started to hit like his old self, Glavine revived himself out of the dead, and so on.

I've never liked Suppan, and early in his career, he had full years like the one he is having now. In fact, his years in STL are well above his mean. Of course, he sucked in Boston twice. As for Marquis, could it be that, as with Suppan, his performance over the last two years was above his mean. With the fabled Leo Mazzone, he sucked after 2001.

And if the Cards were in the AL, they may not even be a .500 team.

As for loading up on FAs...you admit their above-average market (they're one of the 14 major money players. There's 14 major players this year, 2 middling teams, and 14 below average players) will help them acquire talent.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I didn't mean just on this board regarding their offense being "terrible." Just all over in general. It is in the upper tier in the NL in Runs/Game(and we know comparing Runs in the AL vs. NL isn't fair because the DH and other factors, so looking at the NL is actually the best measure).

And whether the payroll has helped or prior acquisitions, the fact remains they haven't done this well until Minaya became GM. We will see how they do in the coming years.

As for Suppan, maybe it's just that Walt saw talent in him. The same goes for Marquis. It's not like their sample size over the last couple of years in St. Louis has been that small. It is large enough that is it beyond just 'luck' that they had been good before this year for them. I think it is legitimate to think they could start to head more toward those good numbers of the last couple of years. Dave Duncan as a pitching coach doesn't hurt either. I sometimes wonder whether maybe he's even better than Rockin' Leo.

And if the Cards were in the AL, the Reds would be in 1st place right now. They aren't and they have been great over the last few years as we all know.

And sure they are above-average market, but a lot of it is due to great fans(high attendance) and incredibly good owners(Cincy native Bill DeWitt) to go along with Jocketty.

I'm just liking seeing Jocketty AND Minaya having success right now. One has been great and the other might turn out to be good for the next few years. We'll see.