It's Miller Time In Kansas City... Or Maybe Not

In studying for my exams two weeks ago, often time my mind would drift in the late hours to places outside the world of education. And as I noticed that it was indeed May 1st, other than thinking about what crazy shocker we’ll see on Lost during sweeps week or how Jack Bauer is unquestionably the man, I realized one of my favorite events is coming up. That is of course the June Amateur Draft. As a Reds fan, you look forward to the draft even though by the end you realize that they probably didn’t research as much as you did with letting several potential steals slip by. Nonetheless, I have never been in the position of knowing that my team will be selecting first in the draft. No worries about who could potentially fall to your pick or if another team realizes the potential of a little talked about but big on talent prospect; your pick essentially shapes the draft. But as a somewhat disappointing movie once said, with great power comes great responsibility. The team in question of selecting the first pick has a lot of pressure in ensuring that they won’t end up with a dud. Too often, and this goes with for so many franchises, you’ll see superior talent passed up due to the expected price tag. And being in the position these top picks are, they simply can’t afford not to spend the cash needed, the future of their franchise needs it.

I know it seems obvious and in delivering an article to you fine folks, I really tried to justify another player as my number one pick. But as with many other publications, the big lefty from North Carolina, Andrew Miller, is my boy. He’s got a great build for a pitcher at 6-6, 210. He possesses as a second pitch a pretty filthy slider when it’s on, with the velocity and break that give scouts feelings that they should only get from their significant other. A fastball that can reach the upper 90’s. Solid control and a good history of success against respectable competition (even if he hasn’t ran away with being the clear cut favorite.) Not to mention despite having the repertoire for the strikeout, he also has pretty strong groundball tendencies with using that plus slider to induce weakly hit groundballs. His delivery doesn’t scream of future torn this or ripped that, just a smooth wind-up and a clean delivery to the plate. He can get into a bit of trouble from time to time, but with the proper instruction and development, that should not be an issue. I can bet that no one in the Cape Cod League views it as such either. And even though from the description of him being a big guy with plus heat, he’s more than a raw flamethrower. From all accounts, it seems that he is mixing up his two-seamers, his four-seamers, his sliders and changing speeds in between to keep those aluminum bats confused.

As you can see, he's held opposing batters to a sub-two ERA while limiting their hits, posted a strong K/9, and shown solid control. I would like to dive deeper into his stats, but the ACC doesn't provide in-depth stats.

So what’s the problem? Most of you know Miller is a solid draft choice and a guaranteed top 5 pick (if not top 3), and many pegged Miller to be #1 in the draft and a Royal. That sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? Unless you’re a passionate Royals hater, for what reason I wouldn’t know (maybe you drove through Kansas City and it smelled funny), it’s nice to see a broken franchise get something they need. With a rotation of Scott Elarton, Mark Redman, Jeremy Affeldt, Joe Mays, and Denny Bautista (among other players lucky enough to be getting a big league salary), it’s not exactly one to wow the fans. Their farm system might have a few bright spots in terms of upcoming bats, and even though they could use any talent they can get, they need legitimate arms progressing towards the majors. Just take a look at the top pitching tools list according to BaseballProspectus.com:

If any of those guys are making waves as a great young pitcher in a few years, I’ll be pleasantly stunned. So if they are lacking with serious arms in the rotation, both on the 25 man roster and on the farm, it only makes sense for them to select Miller. He is just about two years away from the majors (maybe less if they rush him) and has the biggest ace potential due to his development, stuff and the fact that he pitches and doesn’t just throw (I hate when that is said, but I just can’t word it any other way.)

But sadly for those poor Royals fans, it appears that KC could bypass Miller in favor of Washington right-hander Tim Lincecum. Is Lincecum a fine pitcher? Sure, but he doesn’t possess the same potential at all. And Kansas City apparently is coming to this decision for monetary reasons. Miller wants a hefty signing bonus in addition to a major league contract totaling close to six million. I will never possess that kind of money, whether to give to someone else or be in the position of receiving personally, but the Royals need to accept that this is the market. They are picking first for a reason, they have an ownership group who has simply refused for them to add the kind of payroll needed to get the talent to compete and to keep the talent they had. But they have a chance now to draft a player who will anchor their staff if all things go according to plan, a cornerstone for their future, why ruin it over a couple million dollars. The message that sends to fans is they are fully acknowledging that by picking last they are an awful team, but also that they lack the serious intent and commitment to pick the best talent no matter what the cost is to change the direction of this ship.

A fan of a struggling team can only take so much. If Miller is bypassed come June 6th, what does that hold for the Royals in the 2007 draft in which they surely will have another top five pick. The Royals will sign or trade for veteran talent like Reggie Sanders or Mark Redman, neither of which will be apart of the future Royals or a current winning Royals team but yet will skip a potential franchise changing player. And in essence this all boils down to the old saying about that it takes money to make money. Selecting a college arm with big time stuff can get the fans interested again if properly marketed. Just like if the common fan hears that the Royals skipped Miller due to monetary concerns while he starts to tear up the big leagues can seriously hurt fan support (assuming Lincecum or whoever they selected has nowhere near the same hype.) Make that leap of faith this year, in 2007, 2008 and onward. No one expects the Royals to become players in the free agent market but if they can build their team by the strength of their farm, maybe there will be hope again for this franchise.

The moral of the story is: You already messed up to get to the position you are in, don’t mess it up any more.