NL Cy Young: Is it really even a question who is the leading candidate?

NL Cy Young: Is it really even a question who is the leading candidate?
by missionhockey21

As we move closer to the end of the season, the talk and the hype for player awards begins to build. And the discussion by the national media for one award, the National League Cy Young, is really frustrating me. Most so called “experts” seem to feel that at this point there are three legitimate candidates for the Cy Young; Chris Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals, Roger Clemens of the Houston Astros and Dontrelle Willis of the Florida Marlins. But the two being focused on, and understandably so, are Carpenter and Clemens. From analyzing the stats and understanding the situations, to me the winner is clear, at this point The Rocket deserves to win the CY Young without question.

Let’s take into consideration Clemens’ most dazzling statistic, his ERA, which currently stands at 1.53. Clemens is a 43 year old pitcher dominating the National League and leading his team to a potential wildcard position. I can’t think of many pitchers in recent memory (past 15 years or so) to be able to retain a sub 2.00 ERA in 200+IP. Kevin Brown had a 1.89 ERA with Marlins in 1996, Greg Maddux posted a 1.56 ERA in 1994 and a 1.63 ERA in 1995 both with the Braves, and Pedro Martinez had a 1.90 ERA in 1997 with the Expos and 1.74 ERA in 2000 with the Red Sox. And Clemens himself has achieved this before in his career, with his 1.93 ERA in 1990 with the Red Sox. As you can see from the pitchers who have done this recently, it’s not something that can be achieved in a fluke season and it’s rare at that. The fact that Clemens is on a pace for pitching over 200 innings at age 43 alone is amazing and is a testament to his work ethic. But all the pitchers listed who have achieved a sub 2.00 ERA in 200+IP all accomplished that during their prime, not as a middle aged man like Clemens has.

Let’s compare Carpenter to Clemens though and see if we can determine who has been the more dominant pitcher.

Carpenter has had a fantastic season but at this point, it’s a clear winner in terms of who has been the most dominant pitcher in the National League. Most of the categories that Carpenter leads in really are not so important that they would trump Clemens’ 1.53 ERA. He does have a better W-L record but then again his run support has been over 1 run higher. Not to mention the fact that I value W-L records to a near non-existent degree since it’s more a reflection of a dominant offense than a dominant pitcher, in other words I believe they are overrated. His 6 complete games and 4 shutouts are very impressive, but no so much so that would override all the other categories Clemens leads him in. As the stats show, Clemens has simply had nearly all batters look like fools. His stats show how dominant he has been this season and if a batter has done damage against him, he just got lucky.

This is history in the making, Clemens’ continues to show that neither injury (his back pain) nor his age can slow him down. I sincerely encourage any fan who has yet to watch Clemens pitch this season to make sure you catch at least one game to watch of his. He is a true competitor, one of the hardest working players in baseball and who all young pitchers should model their work ethic after. This is an extraordinary season which will hopefully land him his 8th Cy Young award. The Rocket doesn’t fail to impress and this season at age 43 is no exception.

Note: 2005 Statistics of Clemens and Carpenter are accurate as of 8/20. For the sub 2.00 ERA and 200+IP pitchers, there is a chance I missed one or two since I was searching through a 20 page list for those stats.