Baseball / Slant | The Long-Term Look: 2004's Free Agent Third Basemen

We all know who was a free agent coming into this year, and where they signed. We also now how these players are doing as of now. But so what? What can we expect in the future from these men from which so much is expected? Vinny Castilla is hitting now, but what can we reasonably expect him to do through his contract? Carlos Beltran? Carl Pavano I will analyze these men, and their reasonable futures in this, a column I hope to analyze signings position by position.

The key word is reasonable folks, so no, I won't say your team's big signing will be a Hall-of-Famer unless I think he is. Of course, I reserve the right to be wrong and completely change my mind later. On to it:

Vinny Castilla

Washington Nationals
Contract-2 years, 6.2 million net
What he is- Castilla is a low-walk slugger anyway you look at him. Although he hit .232 in 2002, he seemingly bounced back with averages of .277 and .271 in the past two years. Of course, I don't have to note his gigantic splits last year, but I will, 'cause I'm like that.
2004, Home- .321/.379/.575
2004, Road- .218/.281/.493
What he will be- At 37 years old and out of Colorado, any player with Castilla's profile looks bad going forward. That he's a slugger who can't get on base, and with a clearly slowing bat, Vinny was a bad idea from the start. The best the Nats can hope is a fluky good average year, because that's the only way he'll ever be valuable. I don't see a big difference otherwise between him and Tony Batista.
Mitigating circumstances- Starting with a hot 88 ABs as of this writing, Vinny seem to having the kind of start that could make you look at his end-of-the-year line, and think everything went well. Don't buy it. His month-to-month splits will look brutal, I guarantee.

Adrian Beltre

Seattle Mariners
Contract-5 years, 65 million net
What he is- Finally having the huge breakout so many have been waiting for, Beltre had an MVP-caliber 2004 (.334/.388/.629). His walk rate didn't change, but his average and power made huge spikes. Some think that this was the culmination of a huge talent hitting his peak while finally healing from botched surgery years ago. I think this was a career year with a fluky good average boost.
What he will be- 26 years old, the Mariners have Beltre signed through his peak ad then some. He'll keep his power, and some of that average, but you'll never see 2004 again. Expect an excellent third baseman going forward, if not quite the next Mike Schmidt.
Mitigating circumstances- His bat has fallen off the earth so far, and he hasn't quite shown his power. Better hope it turns around, since we've seen this from Adrian before, and not in a good way.

Troy Glaus

Arizona Diamondbacks
Contract- 4 years, 45 million net
What he is-Glaus, even with his injury history, has been very consistent, since his fluky great 2000, hitting around .250 with a .350 OBP every year since. His power has varied, depending on the nature of his injury, swinging his SLG from .450 to .550.
What he will be- At age 28, we can't really expect Glaus to improve. Through his contract, we can expect something around the .250/.350/.450-.550 player we've seen in the past, although age may bring his power into the higher end of that range. The real key here is his health. His last full season was 2002, and his latest injury to his shoulder may force him to first base. He loses a lot of his value across the diamond.
Mitigating circumstances- Already more than halfway to last season's AB total, Glaus is hitting at about the high end of what you could expect over a season, and doing it at third base. There's still a long way to go, but what you see of Troy is what you get.

Joe Randa

Cincinnati Reds
Contract- 1 year, 2.15 million
What he is- For the last few years, Randa has been very consistent, playing at a solid level, around .285/.345/.425. That's not great, or even very good, but it's the kind of performance half the team's in baseball would be happy with from year to year.
What he will be- At age 35, he's aged a lot better than anyone would have thought, and is a good stopgap solution for the Reds. This is the kind of smart deal I like to see, where a team recognizes that a player is not a long-term solution, and signs him just long enough for their star prospect to develop (in the Reds' case, Edwin Encarnacion). Yeah, he's overpaid a bit, but at least the Reds will be happier than the team that signs him in 2006 for multiple years.
Mitigating circumstances- Playing at about the level we expect so far (with a few more walks than expected), Randa is grooving along. He really only has to keep this up for a few more months, then gracefully step aside for Encarnacion. If the Reds actually give him another contract, than I've lost all faith in man. Thinking about it, he makes great trade bait at the deadline.

Aaron Boone (Yes, I'm counting him in, since we all know he was signed expressly to play in 2005)

Cleveland Indians
Contract-1 year, 3 million
What he is-He's Bob's son and Bret's brother. Anyway, he was never a star, but was usually an average bat with a great glove. Injuries have derailed his career, but it wasn't reasonable to expect significantly more than he's given.
What he will be- At 31, he's David Bell without the batting average. And with a lot of injuries. Solid guys like him usually just fall off a cliff.
Mitigating circumstances- He's sucking it up in 2005, and hopefully this is just the result of a lot of downtime instead of the bottoming out of his ability.

Jose Valentin

Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract- 1 year, 3.5 million
What he is- An underrated shortstop with surprising power and good range despite being a booter, Valentin has clearly declined the past few years. While still having his power, his bat is blatantly slowing down, with Jose losing big chunks of average and seeing big increases in his strikeouts.
What he will be- After hitting .216 last season, he's on the brink. He cannot lose more bat speed and be a major league player. Rob Deer without the walks isn't underrated, he just sucks.
Mitigating circumstances- With a .194/.364/.358 start in only about 70 ABs, Valentin looks done. While it may be just a sample size issue, the loss in average and power, with a spike in walks indicating that he has to wait because he can't turn around on pitches anymore, looks like the end of the road. Joe Randa looks better everyday.

Alex S. Gonzalez

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Contract- 1 year, 1.175 million
What he is- A crappy shortstop. He's never hit, showing only some power because he swings for the fences constantly, as evidenced by his big strikeout rate.
What he will be- An even crappier third baseman. At 32, he'll suck and collect over a million for the trouble.
Mitigating circumstances- Hitting .250/.305./355, this is probably the best you can expect. How sad. Joe Randa should be getting 7 or 8 million a year compared to these corpses.

Corey Koskie

Toronto Blue Jays
Contract-3 years, 17 million net
What he is- Not many know it, but Koskie had consistently been one of the game's top third baseman for several years. At 32, he's slowing down a bit, losing average last year when he batted .251/.342/.495. The down year cost him a lot of money in free agency.
What he will be- I expect him to bounce back in average, although not to the level he was at in the early 2000s. But, at his age, he only really figures to decline, and that third year might not be pretty at all.
Mitigating circumstances- At .261/.333./.450, he's still showing that he has his basic skills, and if the average picks up, his year will be in line with with his career. Didn't I tell you Joe Randa would look good after all this? The Joker is easily the bargain third baseman of this year.

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The Long-Term Look: 2004's Free Agent Third Basemen

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