Destination: Cooperstown (Part 1)

No individual honor in baseball is more exclusive than entry into the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame. The gold busts in Cooperstown are said to immortalize the legends of the game - just a quick glance around and even the average baseball fan will recognize the greatness. Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, Mathewson, Young, Aaron, Mays, Rose…OK, sorry about that last one. But with the fairly recent additions of Craig Biggio to the 3,000 hit-by-pitch…er, hits club, and Frank Thomas to the 500-HR club, the Hall of Fame has once again become an issue worth debating. Looking through all the teams in baseball, there are quite a few worthy candidates, so let’s take a look at the 14 American League teams and see what we can find…
*Note: Two statistical categories I will be using here are Black Ink and Gray Ink, both developed by noted statistician Bill James (if you don’t know who he is, well do yourself a favor and look him up). Black Ink is a test to measure how often a player led the league in a variety of "important" stats with the average Hall of Famer scoring about a 27 for hitters and a 40 for pitchers. Gray Ink is virtually the same as Black Ink, except it accounts for being in the Top 10 of statistical categories, with the average Hall of Famer scoring about a 144 for hitters and a 185 for pitchers.


Career numbers: 1502 games, 1679 hits, 248 HR, .287 AVG, .820 OPS
Black Ink: 11, Gray Ink: 66
Pros: He’s been an AL MVP, 4-time All-Star, and is in the prime years of his career at a hitter’s park in Camden Yards. He also just recently ended the 5th-longest consecutive games streak of all-time. He has a 99.0 on the Hall of Fame monitor, where 100 is a good possibility to make it. Shortstop is also a favorable position for fringe HoF hitting numbers.
Cons: Tejada has been consistently very good, but perhaps not Hall of Fame good. In 4 postseason series, he’s gone 18-for-85 (.212) with a .571 OPS and one HR, and his team lost all four. His power numbers have strangely declined since moving from Oakland to Baltimore as well.
Odds of making the Hall: 25%. Tejada needs a few more MVP-type seasons to gain consideration for the Hall. However, he should have many years ahead of him and has been a mostly durable player throughout his career.

Career numbers: 1142 games, 1156 hits, 250 HR, 830 RBI, .287 AVG, .931 OPS
Black Ink: 14, Gray Ink: 60
Pros: Since joining the Red Sox, Ortiz has only gotten better and better, hitting 173 HRs in a 4-year span. He’s placed 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th in the MVP voting those years and had a very good case to win in 2 of those years. His reputation in the clutch is unparalleled in the league today and he is easily one of the most feared hitters in the league.
Cons: 2 great years and 2 very good years does not make a Hall of Famer - Ortiz simply doesn’t have enough good seasons to warrant consideration at this point, and needs quite a few more 40-HR seasons. He also has a very unspectacular defensive resume and doesn’t play a demanding position, when he plays at all.
Odds: 40%. Ortiz’s late start to his career is damning, but his reputation in the clutch and the fact that he’s only 31 (!) will give him some consideration.

Career numbers: 1923 games, 2181 hits, 488 HR, 1585 RBI, .313 AVG, 1.005 OPS
Black Ink: 21, Gray Ink: 156
Pros: He’ll hit 500 HRs either by the end of this season, or by next, and he even has an outside shot at 600. His average and OPS are spectacular for a player with so much power and he also has 9 Silver Sluggers, 11 All-Star appearances, and a World Series MVP to boot.
Cons: He’s never been regarded as a good defender despite an above-average arm and plays in a tremendous hitter’s park.
Odds: 100%. Manny will get to 500 homers and beyond and has long been one of the league’s feared hitters.

Career numbers: 213 W, 560 games (427 starts), 3086 Ks, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .600 winning pct
Black Ink: 43, Gray Ink: 209
Pros: Schilling is a Hall of Famer by Black and Gray Ink standards and on the Hall of Fame monitor. He’s been a 3-time runner up in the Cy Young, has a co-World Series MVP (don’t ask me about it) and he’s been a 6-time All-Star. His reputation in the clutch has also been enhanced incredibly by the 2001 World Series performance and the 2004 “bloody sock” game (again, don’t talk to me about it).
Cons: 213 wins may not be enough to get Schilling into the Hall. And he never actually has won a Cy Young in his 20 years.
Odds: 55%. Schilling’s numbers are very good although not spectacular, but his wins are low due to playing on some pretty bad Phillies teams.

Odds: 112%
(sorry about that)

Career numbers: 1855 games, 2187 hits, 500 HR, 1455 RBI, .305 AVG, .962 OPS, 253 SBs (80%)
Black Ink: 65, Gray Ink: 192
Pros: Let’s see…he’s the youngest ever to 500 home runs and should get to 3000 hits easy, he’s a 2-time MVP, 2-time runner-up, and also has a 3rd place finish. He’s been an All-Star in 11 of 13 full seasons, with 8 Silver Slugger awards. Oh yeah, he’s also on pace to hit about 800 home runs.
Cons: Has become infamous for his supposed failure in clutch spots, although he has had some good playoff moments and some dramatic ninth-inning home runs.
Odds: 100%. A-Rod would be a Hall of Famer if he retired today.

Career numbers: 1787 games, 2294 hits, 191 HR, 260 SBs (78%), .317 AVG, .852 OPS
Black Ink: 6, Gray Ink: 116
Pros: Jeter is well on his way to 3000 hits and should go well over at his current pace. He has never hit below .291 in a full season and only hit below .300 three times (.291, .292, .297). He is an 8-time All-Star, a 4-time World Series winner, renowned for his clutch abilities like nobody else in the game, and the captain of the most successful franchise in sports history.
Cons: Despite his two Gold Gloves, Jeter has generally been regarded as an average to below-average defender. He doesn’t have overwhelming power numbers either and is known as somewhat of a “singles hitter.”
Odds: 95%. Jeter should get 3000 hits easy, which alone is enough to propel him into the hall, but his high average, 4 WS rings, and prowess in the clutch should earn him a spot in Cooperstown.

Career numbers: 351 W, 118 CG, 4647 Ks, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .657 winning pct
Black Ink: 100, Gray Ink: 314
Pros: 7-time Cy Young, 2nd all-time in strikeouts, 8th all-time in wins…there really isn’t much more to say
Cons: He’ll probably never make the Hall because he can’t stay retired.
Odds: 100%. Clemens is perhaps the greatest modern pitcher and as big of a lock to enter the Hall as there is in the game today.

Career numbers: 762 games, 429 saves, 2.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Black Ink: 9, Gray Ink: 33
Pros: He’s an 8-time All-Star, 3rd all-time in saves, and a 4-time Rolaids Relief man of the year. Rivera has widely been considered one of the most automatic closers of all-time and has never posted an ERA of over 3.00 in a full season. We all remember the 2001 World Series and 2004 ALCS, but Rivera has a ridiculous 0.80 ERA in 112.2 postseason innings pitched along with a WS MVP and an ALCS MVP to boot.
Cons: The Hall has historically left out some very deserving closers.
Odds: 100%. Despite the Hall’s prejudice against closers, there’s no way they can leave out one of the top 5 relievers in baseball history in Rivera.

Career numbers: 2200 games, 2349 hits, 503 HRs, 1635 RBI, .302 AVG, .983 OPS
Black Ink: 21, Gray Ink: 202
Pros: 503 HRs with an over .300 AVG is very impressive, showcasing Thomas as a player who can hit for both power and contact. His plate discipline is also excellent, as his 1605 walks are 10th all-time on the career MLB list. He’s also a 2-time MVP winner.
Cons: He’s played most of his career games at DH.
Odds: 98%. Thomas was long one of the game’s feared hitters and has the numbers to back it up, with contact, power, and plate discipline.

[BREAK=The AL Central and AL West]

Career numbers: 1964 games, 489 HRs, 1360 RBI, .281 AVG, .973 OPS
Black Ink: 13, Gray Ink: 105
Pros: Thome should be a lock to get 500 home runs next year, if not this one. When he hits the ball, he generally hits it long, and when he doesn’t, he walks a lot. He is a 5-time All-Star as well.
Cons: Like Thomas, he doesn’t have a good defensive resume. He is also third all-time in strikeouts.
Odds: 55%. I think Thome will hit his 500th HR just as the meaning of 500 HRs begins to diminish, but that number alone gives him an about average chance at entering the Hall.

Career numbers: 2113 games, 2454 hits, 286 HRs, .303 AVG
Black Ink: N/A, Gray Ink: 37
Pros: The offensive numbers don’t look all that great at first glance…but consider this. He’s a catcher, a generally weak offensive position, and he’s a 12-time Gold Glover, 14-time All-Star, 7-time Silver Slugger, and was a league MVP in 1999. Pudge is widely regarded as one of, if not the, best catcher of all-time when it comes to throwing out base stealers.
Cons: His offensive numbers are unspectacular, especially considering he played in Texas most of the time.
Odds: 100%. Rodriguez will be remembered as one of the greatest catchers of all-time when his career ends and is a virtual lock to Cooperstown.

Career numbers: 2330 games, 2500 hits, 478 HRs, 1568 RBI, .297 AVG, .923 OPS
Black Ink: 4, Gray Ink: 130
Pros: Sheffield should get to 500 HRs easily, and could even hit 550 the way he’s swinging the bat now. He’s a 9-time All-Star at a few different positions, 5-time Silver Slugger, and has finished Top 3 in the MVP voting three times.
Cons: He is an extremely outspoken player - this shouldn’t have anything to do with voting, but many baseball writers have a personal grudge against him. He also has only hit 40 HRs in a season twice and doesn’t have any overwhelming stats besides a likely 500 HRs, which is likely to diminish in meaning.
Odds: 50%. Sheffield has the home runs needed, but will the writers forget their personal hatred of him and elect him on the basis of one number (albeit a very good one) that is losing its value?

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Career numbers: 1561 games, 1916 hits, 356 HRs, .325 AVG, .972 OPS
Black Ink: 6, Gray Ink: 151
Pros: His most similar batter through Age 30 - Willie Mays. (Snider, Robinson, and Aaron are in his Top 10.) Vlad has made 8 of the last 9 All-Star teams, is a 6-time Silver Slugger, 2004 league MVP, has the 4th highest batting average among active players…and oh, he’s only 31 years old. He has hit over .302 every single year in the big leagues, and over .316 every year but two.
Cons: A lot can happen between 31 and the end of a career.
Odds: 95%. The 5% is left out for a career-ending injury, because there is simply no way a healthy Guerrero doesn’t enter Cooperstown. He is projected to hit around 600 HRs in his career and has a stellar average.

Career numbers: 1868 games, 2089 hits, 422 HRs, .309 AVG, .927 OPS
Black Ink: N/A, Gray Ink: 101
Pros: Piazza is widely regarded as one of the best, if not the best, hitting catchers of all-time. He is a 13-time All-Star, 10-time Silver Slugger, and has the most home runs ever hit by a catcher.
Cons: He sucks at defense.
Odds: 100%. Probably the best hitting catcher of all-time and unquestionably the best power-hitting one. Who’s gonna leave him out?

Seattle Mariners

Career numbers: 1064 games, 1510 hits, .333 AVG, 265 SBs
Black Ink: 27, Gray Ink: 94
Pros: Ichiro has hit the ball like nobody else since his arrival from Japan in 2001. He’s been an All-Star every year and started 6 out of 7 times, has won a Gold Glove every year, won Rookie of the Year and MVP in 2001, and has led the league in hits 3 times (as well as so far this year).
Cons: Ichiro is already 33 and came over far too late from Japan. He probably would have had 6 or 7 more productive years by now but did not join the Mariners in time.
Odds: 35%. The Japanese stats do have to count for something, and he has 1500 hits in less than 7 full years, but he would have to continue his ridiculous pace into his forties to reach 3,000.

Career numbers: 2328 games, 2383 hits, 604 HRs, 1645 RBI, .273 AVG, .878 OPS
Black Ink: 28, Gray Ink: 142
Pros: I’ll make this simple - Aaron, Bonds, Ruth, Mays. Nobody else in the history of the game besides those four have more home runs than Slammin’ Sammy.
Cons: There are these two little issues with a corked bat and with steroids…
Odds: 50%. Obviously he has the numbers, but will anything else come out of the steroids controversy? Will we ever know the real reason for that corked bat? It’s anyone’s guess if he actually will make it…