Take The Money and Run (A View of The Top 5 Dollar Contracts of The Offseason)

We’re nearing one and a half months of play in this 2007 MLB season and after one of the most debated free agent markets we have seen, it’s time to determine if the contract is a Milano or a Pavano. For those of you who don’t know your baseball gossip, shame on you is the first thing I have to say and secondly Alyssa Milano and Carl Pavano were once an item a few years back and given that we potentially have many free agent contracts that could one day be mentioned in the same light as Pavano’s four year deal of buttock injuries and more with the Yankees, I thought he was a suiting poster boy (we’re not even making him stand for the poster boy shoot out of fear for his newly developed hollow bones syndrome.) Simply put, more Milanos and less Pavanos are the object of the game (because nobody wants more of Carl Pavano, Alyssa I am sure can attest to this) and I will be judging the five richest contracts of the offseason based off of expectations in comparison to what they have actually done up this point in May. This isn’t a value judger of the player or how bad the contract is, although both of those could be factors, but it is simply looking at what they have done in comparison to what you as the GM might have expected when you signed them to such a ludicrous deal.
(Contracts, such as Aramis Ramirez's, where a player resigned with their current team but in the offseason were disregarded.)



Alfonso Soriano took home a whopping $136 million dollar contract after the free spending Cubbies had set their sights on him. Soriano has made a career of deception, from magically becoming a few years older than what the baseball world believed, to the Rangers actually believing he wouldn’t be that much of a downgrade from Alex Rodriguez (as we know, Soriano’s numbers dipped quite a bit even with the ballpark in Arlington.) The latest deception was getting many to believe by just pure view of his statistics that he found discipline at the plate as his 2005 OBP was .309 and his 2006 OBP was .351 (a good portion of that can be explained by a significant jump in IBB and a slight jump in HBP.) Soriano’s 2007 effort has been disappointing for the Cubs, but not completely dismal. You would figure he would have a better time hitting a few out of the park versus playing in the national park (no pun intended) they have in Washington known as RFK, but he’s actually hitting for a higher OPS away from Wrigley (.891 away / .731 home.) He has walked for a grand total of three times but struckout twenty-seven times (BB/SO of 0.11 versus last year’s career high of 0.42), and for power hitters, I usually don't mind strikeouts one-way or the other but as a leadoff hitter this isn't a favorable statistic. He is on pace for nearly 80 doubles though and even when that estimate starts to normalize a bit, I expect him to surpass his season high in 2002 of 51 doubles despite that. But his power to go yard has vanished with only three homers to this point of the season. I can’t imagine a player whose power is one thing even the biggest critics can’t deny him of not to pick up that abysmal pace, but it is concerning how many groundballs to flyballs he is hitting this year, nearly at a 1:1 ratio. The last time Soriano did this was in 2001 (his first full season), when he had 173 groundballs and 177 flyballs and consequently he only had 18 homers in that season. And its not a real accurate trend with him that the lower his G/F ratio goes, the more power he gains because his 2002 and 2003 efforts in New York were his best power years outside of 2006 with a 0.765 G/F ratio (or so) for those seasons, but his 2006 season he had 46 homers (89 EBH, second best in his career) with a 0.56 G/F ratio, so it is something to look at. He is hitting for a much higher average with a .314 clip currently, so if the Cubs have groomed him into making contact for the leadoff spot in versus taking advantage of his power, then that was a colossal waste of $136 million. Of course he could be slumping or putting more personal pressure to hit at a higher average with the newfound contract are both possible options to explain the increased grounders hit and the low homerun total for one of the National League’s premier power threats last season. He has only attempted to steal four bases this year (three attempts were successful) and it looks nearly impossible for him to reach the 30 or so bags you can’t expect him to steal usually (using him anymore on the bases is just not wise given his SB/CS.) The verdict is three Pavanos, he has had a respectable season and some of those doubles should turn into homers soon or later, but at the price tag he came at a .900 + OPS is the first thing to expect when paying his salary every month. He has dealt with a hamstring strain this year already and started the season in a pretty big slump, but he is currently riding a sixteen game hitting streak and had a nice cluster of EBH (including two of his three homers) in early May. A fun fact about the slump is that it took Soriano 43 AB's before recording his first RBI of the season, only four other players in the past forty years needed that many AB's to record their first RBI of the season after coming off a season of driving in 90+ runs. If the power picks up, like it should, there is no reason why he can't have some power packed seasons at Wrigley over that long, long, long, long contract. Not worth his contract, but few players who were big earners in this market has the potential to be truly worth the value their dollar figure indicates. The Cubs could possibly play a bit of trickery by pretending that Chicago is indeed New York or that he is in a contract year every year and that could bring out the best in Soriano.

Everyone wanted Barry Zito this offseason, and anyone who lived on the east coast who was a General Manager and desired this was crazy; Barry was to stay close to home as evident of his signing with the San Francisco Giants. Zito’s debut wearing orange and black probably wasn’t exactly how the Giants or Brian Sabean envisioned after Zito went a modest five innings of two run baseball without using that dazzling 12-6 curveball to rack up the punchouts with taking the loss against the Padres. Of course that’s not a horrid outing by any regards, but an initial letdown after getting their primary offseason target that was especially needed to replace the departed Jason Schmidt. No, the horrid outing came just a few days later against the rival Dodgers allowing eight runs in six innings as Wilson Valdez no doubt had his most memorable game of the season with a double and a triple off the $126 Million Dollar Man and Luis Gonzalez went deep for the first time wearing Dodger blue. Since then however, things have returned to a more expected state for a pitcher like Zito as he has only allowed 8 runs over his last 33.1 innings, lowering his ERA down to 3.65 with those five consecutive quality starts. Even though Pac Bell/SBC/AT&T/whateverITSnowCALLED Park is pitcher friendly, Zito has amazingly only given up 1 homerun to this point in the season, which if continued, should obviously help the bottom line of his statistics after his peak seasons in Oakland he saw his HR/9 rise quite a bit in 2004-2006 versus 2000-2003. Zito’s K/9 has been a moderate 5.68, which isn’t the worst thing as strikeout ratio’s have never translated into success or failure for him (in recent seasons at least) but he has held batters to a much lower batting average than last season, .030 points lower at .227. He is having a pretty typical successful season for Barry Zito at neither his best or his worst, he’s a good pitcher and it’s translated over from the AL West to the NL West. This signing will get one Pavano as Zito is a young lefty who was overpaid but is worth the cash if you have it to spend. Cain and Zito would make a fine 1-2 punch for any rotation and it’s one that the Giants should be able to rely on for quite some time.
Carlos Lee is a player who many felt was overpaid for many reasons, be it for 2006 being what they considered a fluke season or over his career he has been a solid player but only rarely a great player, and solid players with power but questionable other tools and limited OBP ability shouldn’t be getting a $100 million dollar contract over six years at age thirty. Nonetheless, he got it and he has had about the kind of season you would expect from looking at his career numbers averaged out for a season. He’s batting with a .296 batting average (.286 career average), on pace for 30 homers (career average 30), his doubles pace is at a projected 35 (career average 36), although he is on track to drive in a considerable more amount of runs than his career averages would lead you to believe with a projected 157 RBI’s versus his career average of 107. There are some curious numbers on Lee though, such as the fact that he has already grounded into 9 double plays, which correlates with his efforts since 2006 (both in Texas and Milwaukee) of increased groundballs being hit. Being at Minute Maid Park, you would expect the Astros to be grooming him for more of the power stroke to take advantage of those dimensions a bit more, but so far he’s been a road warrior with his power (4 homers away from Minute Maid, 2 homers there). Lee is a good player, not spectacular, and he’s playing about how you would expect from looking at his career which is why he is deserving of a two and a half Pavanos. His ability to drive in RBI's (even if that positive statistic is watered down by leading the NL GIDP's with 9) has been his saving grace in a season of .800 OPS play which isn't the mark of a player making that kind of cash, then again the Astros shouldn't of expected much more than that.

JD Drew left his fairly ludicrous contract in LA to what many thought was a fools move, well him and Boras played against the house and won again as he left with an improved contract dollars wise and more job security (gaining two more years in his contract with Boston versus Los Angeles). Drew was far from the worse of the free agent signees, but if any player (for the position player market) defined how the market was, it was Drew. He opted out of the last three years of his 5 year/55 million dollar deal with the Dodgers, with injury concerns, to land a 5 year 70 million dollar deal. Drew has actually been relatively healthy as a Dodger outside of what many would classify as fluke injuries and not JD Drew having a body like the guy on the Operation game as he did in St. Louis. After the contract was announced, there was a lot of mystery as to whether it would go through or not as there was concern over Drew’s surgically repaired right shoulder (which led to Epstein and Co. postponing the contract long enough to re-work it to protect the organization from any future re-injury financially.) Drew, or rather the mouthpiece for his puppet master Scott Boras, said all the right things to inspire confidence and even had the numbers to back it up. He said the shoulder never felt better after his 146 game season which he batted .283 with 20 homers in (with especially strong numbers in September.) So whether or not he was gritting through the pain to make his 2006 effort look respectable for the future payout is something between him, god and his agent, all we know is that Mr. Drew is slugging a paltry .358 this season. Going back to his September 2006 campaign, Drew had 17 of his 60 EBH’s in that month alone, truly a man on fire. And that effort just really begs the question of where is that JD Drew, where is the guy that posted a 1.005 OPS in 2004, a contract year, with the Braves. Of course its not fair to judge a player based on 100 AB’s, but Drew has hit only two homeruns, three doubles and one triple for a year that would be classified as an obvious disappointment for Red Sox fans expecting a big run producer behind Manny and Big Papi. His OBP ability hasn’t diminished much, he simply has yet to get into a hitting groove, power or of anysort. I do not know his situation indepthly, so whether his lack of production is due to injury, the absence of green motivation or simply is just a good old fashion cold streak… we’ll have to see at the end of the season. Irregardless of the reasons, the man he replaced at a much higher cost is currently out producing him quite a bit as he plays with that reckless disregard (for his own body) now at the Jake, that man of course being Trot Nixon. Nixon, who is making $3 million this season, is slugging nearly .80 points higher than his successor, getting on base at a plus .400 clip and typical of what you expect of him he is getting owned by lefties and owning righties. Drew has the skill set to make that contract look very deserving, it’s just the question of when can he turn it on. Injuries never seem to slow him down when he returns back to peak form, so whether its for reasons like that, mental reason as I mentioned, or just needing time to adjust to the more intense demands of Boston… he needs to figure it out soon as 100 AB’s of this kind of performance from a talent like him is extremely disappointing and deserving of 3.5 Pavanos. I'd take JD Drew at his best, especially at this price, over any of the other top paid offensive talents, but he simply has not performed as evident of his 4.77 RC/27.
Gil Meche is a pitcher who signed a contract that most career 4.50 + ERA and high WHIP pitchers never dream of, at least before they saw the 2006 free agent market where Meche signed for essentially $11 million per season on a five year deal. Meche walked into Kansas City having a red O painted on his chest (for overpaid) as both the apathetic Kansas City fans and the cynical baseball fan in general waited either with expected disappointment or in anticipation for failure (depending on which side you were on), and the results have been stunning. Meche, at his peak, has never had too many complaints regarding his stuff but I don’t think even the biggest believer in him would have expected an ERA that ranks third in the AL of 2.07 and to be first in IP with 54.1. Other than one start against Detroit, he has been a lock for a quality start with seven of eight starts being quality (and often for seven innings.) His peripherals aren’t all that different from his career though despite all of this success, outside of a few key differences that I’ll get to. His K/9 has actually fallen a bit from 2006, from 7.52 to 6.96, which is still obviously well above average and higher than his career average. He’s given up 50 hits in 54.1 IP, which again is align to what he has done over his career (810 hits given up 818.1 IP.) But this season we have seen slightly improved control from Meche as that has been a fairly major problem for him in his career, his K/BB is a career best 3.00 (that in comparison to just two years ago in which is was bordering 1.00.) And somehow, Meche has become a flyball pitcher this season. Last season, he was still fairly neutral but for the first time in his major league career he had more groundballs than flyballs, but this season he has sported a G/F ratio of 2.15 (86 GB / 40 FB) which is beneficial in any park and has led to much of his success this year. Another interesting thing to note about our favorite free agent signing of the offseason is that until tonight in his six inning outing, he hadn’t allowed a single run on the road (he now has one earned run in 26 IP thrown.) The only other factor to explain his success is a fresh start and an enjoyment of being the pariah, of being the one that writers would cite as what is wrong with Major League Baseball’s financial state; because the start to the 2007 season almost appears to good to be true to Royals fans who have learned to expect the worst (maybe Gil rubbed all of his bad luck onto Alex Gordon.) Either that or relishing in being a staff ace and having that pressure on him, but the other view is a lot more fun to think about. Obviously an ERA of this level, without completely dominating peripherals, is unrealistic to expect continued from anyone but Meche has appeared to get a lot together in his short time in Kansas City. For having one of the best early season performances for an AL starter, Meche deserves every single one of his 5 Milanos. Of course there's been luck on his side as you can see his peripherals is not of a 2.15 ERA performance and his component ERA is over a run higher, nonetheless he has gotten the job done and surpassed any expectations (of success that is.)

Dice-K is a bit of bonus to this article, because while he technically didn’t get one of the five richest contracts this offseason, the Red Sox of course paid like it even if the Seibu Lions were the beneficiaries to about half of it. Matsuzaka started off the season well enough I am sure to make Red Sox fans not regret that 50 million dollar admission ticket it cost them to gain access to talk dollar figures with his translator (although I hear he has been picking up on English quite fast.) Matsuzaka’s first outing in the MLB had him going seven innings of one run ball and striking out an impressive ten batters (impressive might be a strong word since they were batters in KC’s lineup) which didn’t help to slow his personal hype machine known as ‘Sawx Fans.’ His next two starts were quality and promising outings as he faced off against the Mariners and then the Blue Jays. But then he got touched up for six runs in seven innings against the Yankees (to the joy of Yankee fans no doubt), then hit up for four runs in six innings against the Yankees again (Yankees fans threw a parade since this outing was in NYC) and finally with seeing the Mariners again he had his worst outing of his short career with five innings pitched and seven runs given up. This performance led his ERA to increase yet once more as it did steadily since his first outing to 5.45. After this string of disappointing outings, Matsuzaka went for his longest bullpen throwing session, throwing 109 pitches on Sunday, in which he worked on his timing in and it seems like that session paid off as he has had his first successful rematch against a team. He has redeemed himself at least for one game as he faced the Blue Jays to eliminate any Japanese starting pitching competition for Boston adoration with squaring off against Tomo Ohka for a winning effort of 7 innings with one run allowed, three walks and eight punchouts. As for his overall efforts this season, it’s been split between the good, the bad and the ugly but with a new pitcher in the league (let alone this country), some deviance from expectations within the first month shouldn’t be of that great of a surprise. His control hasn’t been all that this season (18 walks in 45 IP) but he has had two double digit strikeout performances already to his credit which has given him a terrific 9.40 K/9 for the season (Matsuzaka was the first pitcher since Fernando Valenzuela to strikeout 10 in two of the first three starts to kick off a career). He has been a neutral G/F pitcher for the most part, with a bit more leanings to the flyball which has led to an ERA that is not a pretty sight for Fenway (but I imagine nerves has contributed to that, nerves he should work out of like his 1 ER effort at home in last night’s game.) For any rookie pitcher, let alone one in the spotlight like Matsuzaka you would expect nerves to play a role in the equation of success and it has with Dice-K who’s been dominant when winding up (ERA with bases empty is 0.81 in 22.1 IP) but not from the stretch (ERA with runners on is 12.06 in 15.2 IP) and you simply don’t want to know his ERA when the bases are loaded. Being on this stage, under this pressure, should be something a player of his ability should overcome but it’s just too soon at this point to be calling him a success or failure as we are limited to these seven outings to make our judgments on. But when Matsuzaka has been on this season, its hard to argue that you don’t like what you see from him. Boston fans expectations were either modest, expecting there to be a transition period for him to find a groove and build a solid relationship with Jason Varitek, or were of Cy Young and Rookie of Year nature (at the same time.) Matsuzaka should continue getting more comfortable and I don’t see any reason why he won’t finish with an ERA around 4.00 to end the season (maybe even a bit better.) Being in an understanding mood for one of our newest residents (that we know about), I am only going to give him two Pavanos as he has had quite a bit of bad luck on his side (as you can tell from some of his statistics.)