2009 Outlook: Cleveland Indians

[Pronk48]

This is my outlook for the Cleveland Indians 2009 season.

I like this team. Last year we got hit with injuries and it just wasn't a good year. Hopefully with the reports being positive injury wise, the Indians will be back to thier 2007 mark. I am very encouraged by the way they ended the 2008 season, fighting to get to the .500 mark, which is right where they finished.

All reports say Travis Hafner should be 100% by the end of spring trianing and hopefully he will be back to his 2004-06 self where he was hitting 30+ HR, .300 BA, and 100+ RBI in the middle of the order. If we get that Hafner back, then that will be a huge boost to the offense.

Also, a player that will hopefully be back to his old self after injury last season is C/1B/DH Victor Martinez. Last season started off bad with a hamstring injury in the seaso opener, and then later an elbow injury that required surgery.

There is also Fausto Carmona who was injured last season. With the losses of C.C. Sabathia in a trade to the Brewers, Paul Byrd in a trade to the Red Sox, and Jake Westbrook to an elbow injury last season we need Carmona to get back to his 2007 19 game winning self to have a chance at winning the division.

Position Outlook

Catcher

There are two options behind the plate, Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach. While Martinez has proven to be an very good catcher and is a force on offense, Shoppach has proven he's no slouch either.

Manager Eric Wedge has already announced that Shoppach will catch for 2008 Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee and Martinez will catch for Fausto Carmona. But in the end, who is the best catcher for the team? This will be something that Eric Wedge will have to figure out.

If Shoppach proves that 2008 was for real, there is an issue. I doubt that he wants to sit on the bench behind Martinez for most of the season. He will be asked about in trade discussions all season, especially at the trade deadline.

First Base

Ryan Garko, Victor Martinez, and Travis Hafner are all capable of playing first base. Garko would be the regular first baseman, while Martinez would play first base on days Shoppach catches. Hafner is almost strictly a DH, but does sometimes play first base in interleague games when playing in NL stadiums, due to the no DH rule.

Garko last season ended up in Wedge's doghouse for poor play and lack of hustle. He needs to stay out of Wedge's doghouse this year so he can be a consitant contributor for the Indians all year long. But he might end up being the odd man out depending on what happens with Shoppach at the catcher position.

I see Garko and Martinez splitting a lot of time at first base until Wedge figures out what he wants to do with the Shoppach/Martinez platoon behind the plate. As long as Garko hits well and hustles, he'll get playing time.

Second Base

With the addition of Mark DeRosa to play third base, you would think second base would be all Asdrubal Cabrera's job. But you'd be wrong. The infield is a jumbled mess because DeRosa is very good second baseman and has played more games there than at third the last couple of seasons in Chicago.

As of right now, I would say Asdrubal Cabrera is the starting second baseman, but there's no gaurantee that it will be that way at the end of training camp. Wedge has said he wants to put the best team on the field, and that's what he will do. If that means Cabrera at short and DeRosa at second, then that's what it will be.

There is a wild card in the second base logjam, and that is Josh Barfield. When we traded for him, he was expected to come in and be the teams starting second baseman. Poor play and injuries derailed that. He's fighting for more of a spot on the bench, but don't be surprised if his name comes up as a canidate for the starting second base job.

Shortstop

Right now, from the way it looks, Johnny Peralta is still the starting shortstop for the Indians. But like everywhere else on the infield, there is competition for that spot.

The competition comes from the person I assume will be the starting second baseman, Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera is a natural shortstop who's defensive plays sometimes remind me of Omar Vizquel. Cabrera wants to play short, and he might get his wish if Peralta gets moved to third base.

Third Base

This is another huge logjam. When the Indians traded for DeRosa, managment said that they were trading for a third baseman. But now reports say the he could be playing second base.

If DeRosa does end up playing second base, then Johnny Peralta would be moved to third base. He played third in the Dominican Republic winter league to get reaclitmated to third, where he played a lot in the minors.

There is also the issue of Andy Marte. He hasn't proved that he's a viable third baseman at all. He's had bad defensive play and bad offense. He was supposed to be the prized jewel in the trade of Coco Crisp to Boston, but he's been a major disapointment. If he doesn't prove that he can be a viable option at third base he won't make the team. He is out of options so the Indians would have to trade him, release him, or make room for him on the 25 man roster.

Outfield

There is only one sure spot in the outfield, and that is center field where Grady Sizemore roams making spetacular plays. He can field, hit, and run. He's the only sure thing in the Indians outfield.

In left field it looks to be a platoon between Ben Fransisco and David Delluci. But if Fransisco can field even decently and hits, there won't be much platooning.

In right, it's looking like Sin Soo Choo is the man. He is a very good fielder who has a breakout season at the plate. If last year was not a fluke, he will be an every day starting right fielder for the Indians.

David Delluci, as mentioned earlier, will be vying for some playing time. He's more than likley going to be the fourth outfielder taking turns in left and right.

Designater Hitter

This job belongs to Travis Hafner. But on days he has off it can be filled by a multitude of people such as Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko, David Delluci, Sin Soo Choo, Grady Sizemore, and Kelly Shoppach.

So the lineup has lots of flexability to it. Hopefully it won't take Wedge long to find the right combo and get the best team on the field on a daily basis.

This is what I expect the normal Indians lineup to be in AL parks:

Grady Sizemore, CF
Adsrubal Cabrera, 2B
Ben Fransisco, LF
Travis Hafner, DH
Victor Martinez, C
Johnny Peralta, SS
Ryan Garko, 1B
Sin Soo Choo, RF
Mark DeRosa, 3B

Rotation

The only two spots set in stone are Cliff Lee as the #1 and Fausto Carmona as the #2.

The other three spots are a toss up between Carl Pavano, Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and Anthony Reyes. There must also be room when Jake Westbrook is ready to come back around the All-Star Break.

Pavano had a few bad years in New York injury and perfomance wise. if we can get the pre-Yankee Pavano then we have a solid #3 pitcher.

Sowers and Laffey are both held in high regard by the Indians, and they hope that those two will become the #4 and #5 starters in the rotation.

Bullpen

The closer is Kerry Wood, no questions about it. Having an established closer is good, because that puts the roles of the rest of the members of the bullpen into context.

Bentancourt will be the set-up man in the 8th innings. Perez can take the set-up role or pitch the 7th inning. Jensen Lewis has proven that he can take any role asked of him, including closer.

This looks like it could be a better bullpen than the 2007 team and te 2005 team that narrowly missed the playoffs. A lot of the Indians success this season is riding on how the bullpen performs. If they shine, then the Indians can be celebrating thier first World Series title since 1948. If they are bad, it'll be a loooong season for Indians fans.

My prediction for the Indians in 2009:

94 wins, AL Central Champions

[catman]

Good forecast, although you might be a bit optimistic in the win total and the finish in the AL Central.
I see problems in the rotation, as Lee might regress to his previous form. Carmona is good, but after that there could be trouble. The bullpen should be OK, and Wood might be a great addition.
The infield is a mess, but the players have talent. If Marte can put it together, it straightens the mess out a lot. Garko should be fine at 1B and the group at 2B is better than most teams have to pick from. DeRosa is a very solid utility guy. Barfield was going to be the 2B of the future, and could still make that. Cabrera is likely another utility guy that could play 4 games a week at 2B and SS.
The outfield is good, but if there were a legitmiate option for CF (other than Sizemore), Sizemore would be better in left. He has a minus arm, but excellent ball-reading skills. He gets great jumps on flyballs and his weak arm doesn't hurt him except on balls in the left-center gap, running away from his arm. He is fast enough to compensate for this "weakness" by playing farther toward left than one with a better arm would, but he still gets to the ball in right-center very well.
Catcher is the strength of the team, but how long will Shoppach settle for only getting 15 ABs a week? Martinez has good skills and is a very good hitter. It would be a shame to let him miss ABs.
Another question is this -- has Travis Hafner recovered completely? Can he continue playing with the intensity he had in the past? If so, DH is fine. If not, it could be another problem area.
I see the Indians finishing with somewhere around 85 wins this season, which should be good enough for 3rd in the division.

[love_that_reefer]

I agree with most but disagree with some. I don't see Garko being the regular first baseman. I believe that will belong to Martinez with Shoppach getting most of the work behind the plate. Garko will fill in when needed. Wedge has already said as much. He said Martinez and Hafner will play everyday and Shoppach will play more this year. Marte shouldn't even be mentioned anymore. He was a complete bust and Pheralta will be manning third this season. Cabrera will move to SS and DeRosa will play second base. That makes the infield better.

I too see the Indians winning this division. They were the best team in he second half last year and should be even better with Hafner and Martinez coming back healthy. Biggest improvement goes to the bullpen though. That was their biggest weakness and they corrected it. AL Central champs sounds about right.