Willy Mo traded for Bronson Arroyo (Confirmed)

[CincyRedsFan30]

Mission, one thing I wanted to correct about what you said. Arroyo is 29, not 32. He turned 29 near the end of February.

[missionhockey21]

If one of the outcomes is playing Freel everyday, then this trade does have a bit of merit.

C- LaRue
1B- Dunn
2B- Freel
3B- Ed E
SS- FeLo
LF- Denorfia
CF- Griffey
RF- Kearns

or
(not as desirable)
C- LaRue
1B- Dunn
2B- Aurilia
3B- Ed E
SS- FeLo
LF- Freel
CF- Griffey
RF- Kearns

But sadly I am fearing this will make room for either Woemack (in the outfield) or Hatteberg at 1st.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I'm a little worried that Arroyo's GB/FB ratio was up last year and his strikeouts were down. I hope he can lower that GB/FB and increase his Ks.

I hope that lineup you mention doesn't happen, mission. (the second one)

Aurilia has been playing at 1B some though, including today, so we might see him at 1B and Dunn back in the outfield.

Narron probably advised Krivsky to dump WMP because he doesn't play the game the right way.

[missionhockey21]

Mission, one thing I wanted to correct about what you said. Arroyo is 29, not 32. He turned 29 near the end of February.

Oh I know. I was saying that Wily Mo hits his prime age, which most consider to be about 27, that Arroyo will be about 32.

Arroyo having some youth now does give this deal a bit more potential assuming there is a chance that he could further develop into a better pitcher. Although I still think we would be much better off with Clement, even if that wouldn't of been a great trade either.

[Wally Mo Pena]

The difference? In 2004 he was able to get some consistent AB's with the Griffey injury. Last year, overall we were dealing with a crowded outfield, minus two occasions, and he battled with injury. Plus his numbers did nto regress to the point where it was a concern longterm. We're talking about a few less hits, a few less XBH's, not serious declines. It wasn't promising that he didn't progress but I think the injuries didn't allow him to get into any grooves considering how streaky of a player he is.

he is streakiy and the exact same thing could have happened this year. People were already talking about him not starting everyday in left, and he could have gotten hurt just the same.

Wily mo may never be better than those lines, or he may get a lot better. BP is calling for a breakout season this year, but guess what, they called for it last year too and look what happened.

here are the park factors for fenway and GABP

Rk Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB
14 Fenway Park 1.015 1.011 1.031 1.130 1.061 0.973
24 Great American 0.847 1.048 0.890 0.864 0.538 0.883

over the last two years at fenway, arroyo allowed 185 ER, which converted to GABP would be 155. That's over 385 innings, which would give him a 3.62 ERA.

in that time he gave up 39 HRs, which converted to GABP would be 40.4 or about 1 extra HR per season. that should be easily offset by getting to pitch to pitchers instead of DHs, so i think it's very concieveable that he'll put up an ERA under 4 for the reds.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Oh ok.

I don't think this trade is as bad as most of O'Brien's moves (or lack therof). That doesn't say much though.

[missionhockey21]

I'm a little worried that Arroyo's GB/FB ratio was up last year and his strikeouts were down. I hope he can lower that GB/FB and increase his Ks.

I was overlooking that too with some concern. I am wondering if 2004 was a fluke or what. Because he took some big losses, much bigger than WMP's declines in 2005. Loss 42 strikeouts despite pitching 20 some more innings, gave up more hits per nine innings, had a bigger HR rate and the mentioned GB/FB ratio. Did he battle with an injury that I am not aware of?

[missionhockey21]

here are the park factors for fenway and GABP

Rk Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB
14 Fenway Park 1.015 1.011 1.031 1.130 1.061 0.973
24 Great American 0.847 1.048 0.890 0.864 0.538 0.883

over the last two years at fenway, arroyo allowed 185 ER, which converted to GABP would be 155. That's over 385 innings, which would give him a 3.62 ERA.

in that time he gave up 39 HRs, which converted to GABP would be 40.4 or about 1 extra HR per season. that should be easily offset by getting to pitch to pitchers instead of DHs, so i think it's very concieveable that he'll put up an ERA under 4 for the reds.

Interesting stuff, thanks for the info Wally. A lot of what I am saying is just based on what I know and reaction to the situation, so it's nice to have something like that brought in.

A rep worthy post indeed.

[McKain]

Fisher (and Wally since I believe you see/hear a good deal on the Red Sox), is there somekind of untapped potential I am not aware of with Arroyo?

Untapped potential? He could be the best cover artist of early 90s rock bands in history. He just needs some training to get there.

Which also poses another question about Wily Mo: can he replace Brandon Arroyo? Can WMP play the guitar? Can he sing?

[Wally Mo Pena]

Fisher (and Wally since I believe you see/hear a good deal on the Red Sox), is there somekind of untapped potential I am not aware of with Arroyo? To be honest, I just know what I do from the stats and the times I have seen him in the playoffs. Nothing screamed an upper rotation #2 type of guy, just a middle of the rotation (possibly even a #4 on most teams) type of pitcher who sometimes was a bit better than that. So other than what the stats tell me (a pitcher who is fairly hittable, lacking strikeout type of stuff, but keeps a team in the game), can someone give me some more info so I can understand this, because it is just not clicking right now.

he's got nasty nasty stuff in the movement department and Varitek has consistantly said that he could win 20 games if he could locate his fastball a little better, so that's some kind of untapped potential. I think control is the one thing that should get better as a pitcher ages.

[CincyRedsFan30]

If that GB/FB doesn't improve, it is vital we have our best defense out there for him. That means no Woemack or Aurilia starting. It means Dunn staying at 1B and Denorfia in the outfield.

[missionhockey21]

I hate to be the bringer of bad news, but here goes:

Entire Season 	 	TEAM 	 	  W   	 L   	 ERA 	 G   	 GS  	 CG  	 SHO 	 SV  	 SVO 	 IP  	 H   	 R   	 ER  	 HR  	HBP 	 BB  	 SO
Before All-Star    Boston Red Sox         7       5       4.02    18      17  	0  	0  	0  	0  	109.2  	106  	55  	49  	11  	8  	25  	64
After All-Star 	    Boston Red Sox 	   7 	  5 	  5.08 	   17 	   15 	0 	0 	0 	0 	95.2 	107 	61 	54 	11 	6 	29 	36

Before pre-ASG, I can live with. In fact, I'd love it and I would actually be pretty ok with this deal. That all appears to be much more inline with what he did in 2004. But after the ASG, what happened? Strikeouts went way down, he had a stinky K/BB ratio, more hittable, etc. Injury? Or did AL hitters just finally figure out how to smash him?

[Slyder]

Um Harangs GB/FB is slightly worst (career like .95 compared to Arroyo's .98) put Freel in LF with his speed and stability of playing there everyday he should improve and have better overall range than Dunn.

[missionhockey21]

Untapped potential? He could be the best cover artist of early 90s rock bands in history. He just needs some training to get there.

Which also poses another question about Wily Mo: can he replace Brandon Arroyo? Can WMP play the guitar? Can he sing?

Heh, nope.

And you hit on one of the reasons why I already liked Arroyo in a non-baseball sense.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I hope he just had a "rough second half." If we got a pitcher with an injury issue dumped on us, I'm going to be upset. I can't believe the team wouldn't investigate that beforehand. Let's hope he returns to that Pre-All-Star Break form and gets better as he enters his 30s.