Willy Mo traded for Bronson Arroyo (Confirmed)

[albbla2000mu]

Since the Red Sox THEMSELVES brang up Barfield being a clone at this age to Mo Pena...lets just look.

MO Pena...(Baseball reference)

Similar Batters through Age 23

Jesse Barfield (976)
Rocky Colavito (955)
Pete Incaviglia (949)
Bobby Bonds (947)
Dave Kingman (946)
Willie Montanez (946)
Billy Conigliaro (944)
Willie Horton (943)
Harmon Killebrew (941) *
Roger Maris (939)

Arroyo...
Similar Pitchers through Age 28
Mike Harkey (978)
Kevin Foster (975)
Chris Codiroli (974)
Rodrigo Lopez (974)
Sean Bergman (972)
Art Ditmar (970)
Ted Lilly (969)
Brett Tomko (968)
Chad Ogea (967)
Scott Sanders (967)


Great........another Tomko!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[NFLman2033]

yeah, that's what makes me think that he'll see some improvement naturally, but i wonder if anyone has generated conversion stats specifically for individual players moving from AL to NL.

i would love it if bronson could shave a whole run of his ERA, but i doubt it will be that severe. I could see half a run or a little more, especially when park factors are considered.

I would love it too, I guess all you could do is take a look at a similar pitcher switch from AL to NL at roughly the same age, i did some research at Baseball reference, sadly pitchers similar to Arroyo brought up names like Brett Tomko, and Alan Benes, so not exactly a world beater. even though Aaron Harang's name was on there too, so who knows.

first guy, who is even close, that was roughly the same age when switching from AL to NL was

Sean Bergman http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bergmse01.shtml

IN 1995, 25 years old with Detroit(I know much younger) 28 games 28 starts 5.12 ERA, then 1996, 26 Years old with San Diego 41 games 14 starts 4.37 ERA, by the time he hit 28 with Houston, he did get it down to 3.72 in 27 starts, before balooning back up into the 5's

Chad Ogea
http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/ogeach01.shtml

in 1997 at 26, in Cleveland he 21 games /21 starts 4.99 ERA
in 1999 at 28 in Philadelphia he 36 games / 28 starts 5.62 ERA

everyone else on the list, either never switched leagues, or did before DH, or just didn't have enough starts to even bother to mention.

I think he may drop a point or two, but Its not going to be a fact that he will, Ramon Ortiz http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/ortizra02.shtml
last year after having a 4.43 ERA in Anahiem came over here for a 5.36, granted he was 3 years older


so we can always hope it will be lower, but i wouldn't bank on it

[NFLman2033]

Since the Red Sox THEMSELVES brang up Barfield being a clone at this age to Mo Pena...lets just look.

MO Pena...(Baseball reference)

Similar Batters through Age 23

Jesse Barfield (976)
Rocky Colavito (955)
Pete Incaviglia (949)
Bobby Bonds (947)
Dave Kingman (946)
Willie Montanez (946)
Billy Conigliaro (944)
Willie Horton (943)
Harmon Killebrew (941) *
Roger Maris (939)

Arroyo...
Similar Pitchers through Age 28
Mike Harkey (978)
Kevin Foster (975)
Chris Codiroli (974)
Rodrigo Lopez (974)
Sean Bergman (972)
Art Ditmar (970)
Ted Lilly (969)
Brett Tomko (968)
Chad Ogea (967)
Scott Sanders (967)


Great........another Tomko!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

lol i just posted the Tomko bit

[bipster]

I just don't understand the timing of this trade. This was the first year that Pena was going to get to start everyday. Were we so worried about Pena's (in)ability to hit righties would drive his trade price down? I personally don't think it would matter if he didn't mash righties as he would still be a youngish power prospect regardless......thus we could trade him for an Arroyo type pitcher later in the season. The "what if" of this scenario is if he would of come out and produced vs righties in a similar manner to how he produces against lefties......thus driving his trade price up farther and us getting more help in the future with a better prospect pitcher or a younger starter with more upside than Arroyo

[NFLman2033]

well i think you're wrong about where the reds will finsih, but that's all just speculation at this point, so who knows. pena is a prospect in a way, but he can't hit for average or OBP, so he's not an elite prospect, and thus would not bring an elite prospect in return. Plus, position player prospects just aren't valued as highly as pitching prospects.

the thing people need to realize is that this deal is as much for the future as it is for now. Yes a pitcher like arroyo could be had in free agency, but for 8 mil/year, not 3. See matt morriss. you need to have a deep rotation to win it all, not just an ace, and in 2008, we'll be paying next to nothing for arroyo to be our 5th starter, and he'll be a great fifth starter. that money will allow us to buy a top teir FA starter to go with bailey:

projected 2008 rotation:

Bailey
FA
Harang
Claussen
Arroyo

when you get that kind of production from the back end of the rotation, you can tear off huge winning streaks.

in 2008 who of these guys will be gone: Griffey, Dunn, Kearns, EdE, Felo.

answer: none. we will have every bit the offense that we do now, and the pitching to back it up. add to that a free agent 1b, and we look pretty tough, without wily mo.

i love wily, don't get me wrong, but this move was about winning more now and preparing to win a lot more in the future, which is i remember, is exactly what Castellini said he wanted to do.

woah why don't you let Homer Bailey face a major league ball player in a regular season game before you act as if he is going to be the Ace of the staff

[NFLman2033]

I just don't understand the timing of this trade. This was the first year that Pena was going to get to start everyday. Were we so worried about Pena's (in)ability to hit righties would drive his trade price down? I personally don't think it would matter if he didn't mash righties as he would still be a youngish power prospect regardless......thus we could trade him for an Arroyo type pitcher later in the season. The "what if" of this scenario is if he would of come out and produced vs righties in a similar manner to how he produces against lefties......thus driving his trade price up farther and us getting more help in the future with a better prospect pitcher or a younger starter with more upside than Arroyo

very good post, you bring up great point, namely being why was it neccisary to do this now, I mean what if he played in LF this year and destroyed the ball, and Kearns lived up to his potential, we could have gotten more for him, I mean the only thinking I could see is they were expecting them both to do badly and drive their price down worse, yet again with all of WMPs potential, they could have still gotten a guy like Arroyo(who are a dime a dozen around the league for the most part, only over paid because teams like the Reds cant seem to get them) next season if lets say Kearns had done well or even if he had busted.. no this was a move to give Womack, Hattenberg and Aurillia more playing time

[Wally Mo Pena]

woah why don't you let Homer Bailey face a major league ball player in a regular season game before you act as if he is going to be the Ace of the staff

fair enough. i may have gotten carried away with bailey, since i've been so excited about him this spring.

my point is that i think the new ownership is trying to get better now, while simultaneously improving for 2008, which is the year i think they have earmarked to make a real run.

if bailey continues to progress he should be ready for the bigs then.

milton comes off the books, we do what we have to to to get the best available starter.

in the 07-08 off-season guys like arroyo are going to be commanding a lot more than $3 mil, and that value is going to be huge.

[Wally Mo Pena]

very good post, you bring up great point, namely being why was it neccisary to do this now, I mean what if he played in LF this year and destroyed the ball, and Kearns lived up to his potential, we could have gotten more for him,

it's funny, i'm listening to sports talk in boston right now, and everyone up here is saying, "why didn't we let arroyo pitch for a few months and get 7 or 8 wins, then we could have gotten a lot more for him!"

the point is that this is a good deal for both teams right now, and it might not have been there later on. Sure Wily Mo could have had a hot start and maybe gotten more at the deadline. Or he could have bombed and gotten less (i disagree that he could have done anything and kept his value because of potential), same for arroyo. If he was 4-0 with a rebounded k rate and a 2.80 ERA after april, how eager would they have been to deal him and send us $1.5 mil.

maybe they could have gotten $2 mil, maybe they couldh ave gotten a prospect, maybe it's a steal how it is. It's too close to tell, and we don't have the whole story.

the bottom line is that it makes us better now and for the next 3 years, and the red sox may be able to say the same if wily can improve.

they got the riskeir end of the deal with more upside, we got the safer end.

[NFLman2033]

fair enough. i may have gotten carried away with bailey, since i've been so excited about him this spring.

my point is that i think the new ownership is trying to get better now, while simultaneously improving for 2008, which is the year i think they have earmarked to make a real run.

if bailey continues to progress he should be ready for the bigs then.

milton comes off the books, we do what we have to to to get the best available starter.

in the 07-08 off-season guys like arroyo are going to be commanding a lot more than $3 mil, and that value is going to be huge.

yeah no doubt it would be nice to see Bailey be up for next year, and amazing if he were at Ace quality, but I am still not so sure about Milton and Arroyo for 08, I think Claussen and Harang will be good enough, they are still young enough, but the other two aren't getting any younger and are likely to have their better days behind them rather than ahead.

[Wally Mo Pena]

theo epstein: "it's a bit of a gamble. he strikes out way too much, he doesn't have good command of the strikezone, and his defense needs a lot of work. theres's some risk involved."

[Wally Mo Pena]

milton will be gone for 08, that's the key. we'll use his money (plus some more) to get a top teir pitcher to go with the guys we'll still have and hopefully baily.

as for arroyo, he's only 29, when did that become ancient for pitchers? Didn't we just offer matt morris 25 million over 3 years after his age 31 season? We'll have arroyo for 29, 30, and 31, which i think are pretty solidly "in his prime" type of years.

and for those who were worried about arroyo's down second half, look at Wily Mo's: .224/.290/.401. the sox were probably just as worried about that.

[NFLman2033]

it's funny, i'm listening to sports talk in boston right now, and everyone up here is saying, "why didn't we let arroyo pitch for a few months and get 7 or 8 wins, then we could have gotten a lot more for him!"

the point is that this is a good deal for both teams right now, and it might not have been there later on. Sure Wily Mo could have had a hot start and maybe gotten more at the deadline. Or he could have bombed and gotten less (i disagree that he could have done anything and kept his value because of potential), same for arroyo. If he was 4-0 with a rebounded k rate and a 2.80 ERA after april, how eager would they have been to deal him and send us $1.5 mil.

maybe they could have gotten $2 mil, maybe they couldh ave gotten a prospect, maybe it's a steal how it is. It's too close to tell, and we don't have the whole story.

the bottom line is that it makes us better now and for the next 3 years, and the red sox may be able to say the same if wily can improve.

they got the riskeir end of the deal with more upside, we got the safer end.

funny, i agree that best case scenario is that neither team got the advantage, but to me the bottom line is it really wasn't a good deal for either, Red Sox fans feel that like you posted later on that WMP strikes out too much and is a liability in the field, and I feel as a Reds fan that his potential far outweighs his current price, and that given enough time he would have developed into a more patient hitter.. and Arroyo who the Sox feel is a solid pitcher i feel is nothing more then a slightly above average pitcher who gives us minimal help in the rotation

[NFLman2033]

milton will be gone for 08, that's the key. we'll use his money (plus some more) to get a top teir pitcher to go with the guys we'll still have and hopefully baily.

as for arroyo, he's only 29, when did that become ancient for pitchers? Didn't we just offer matt morris 25 million over 3 years after his age 31 season? We'll have arroyo for 29, 30, and 31, which i think are pretty solidly "in his prime" type of years.

and for those who were worried about arroyo's down second half, look at Wily Mo's: .224/.290/.401. the sox were probably just as worried about that.

its not ancient for pitchers who are actually pitching well at that age, he hasn't pitched that well at any age, besides did i say ancient, i said he is likely not going to get any better.

[Geki Ace]

I don't know how you can guarantee we'll grab a top-flight starter. How many ace starters have even been on the free agent market in the past three or four years? The only bona-fide ace I can think of is Pedro. And then you have the problem of getting this person to come to Cincinnati over various other big-spending clubs. Let's say, with a very conservative guess, it'll take at least 4-years and $52 million go get an ace, and probably another year at that rate if we wanna actually get whoever it is. What pitchers are going to be eligible to be free agents after the 2007 season that we could concievably outbid every other team interested to get?

[BoSox34]

I like the deal for both teams. The Reds get a SP that will definately help out their staff and we get a young hitter who does well vs. LHP in Pena to compliment Nixon in RF. I liked Arroyo but I love the fact as a BoSox fan to see Wily Mo in a Red Sox uniform and hopefully he can find a stroke vs. RHP in Fenway. This will allow us to let Nixon walk at seasons end and make Wily Mo our everyday RF in 2007, that's IF he can put up good numbers against RHP.