Willy Mo traded for Bronson Arroyo (Confirmed)

[Slyder]

The same reason you think hes the next Branyan.

http://strike3forums.com/forums/show...&postcount=101
I guess you didnt read the top of that post, where I stated

Please Note I do not think that its a given what I write below will be what happens, just whats a POTENTIAL to happen.

Everyone else it seems to be already giving Pena the luarel of being an all star when we dont know what the future holds. Russell Branyan was just one who fit the other end of the spectrum. That is why I brought Branyan into the conversation.

[NFLman2033]

I have to agree with missions thoughts and it may have benefited us more if we were patient. This just leads me to believe that they really did not think Dunn could hack it at 1B. They just really wanted him or he really wanted to go back to LF and they had to get what they could before Pena would have to sit the bench again. They would never be justified if they sat Pena and started Hatteberg at 1B.

I think that Narron may have told Krivsky that he can't see himself starting Pena because he feels like Hatteberg would be more productive. We can't deny that Narron would think that way. So, Krivsky had to do what he can with Pena now. Not to say that Narron has too much pull in baseball decisions. But he has all the power in the world to sit Pena and start Hatteberg when he wants.

I hate to sound dumb here, but I blame Narron's thinking on us not waiting. But I still like the move for what we got out of Pena not producing yet. I am happy that we have another quality pitcher on this team.

you know its funny, I remember I think it was Mothers day 2003, I saw Dunn at 1B, and he looked awesome that day, he had more range than Casey, and even dug a couple out of the dirt, not to mention I could have sworn when we put him in LF, his "Natural" position was 1B, now all of a sudden he was a liability at 1B so we moved him back to LF, where he has pretty much sucked it up since being put in the league... and we were worried about a guy who as a Natural OF, who was trying to fix his fielding problems.. This team just Got Older with less potential with a slight improvement in overall talent from a 73 win team.. no way you can add Arroyo's 14 or 15 wins from last year to this team.. a pitcher can not win a game by himself, he needs some offensive output to get the win.. and with this years team, we are going to see a decrease in Offensive output.

what does Aurillia, Hatteberg, and Womack have in common, they are all old farts who are past their prime who have just now got more opportunites to get At Bats

[Geki Ace]

I think Dunn could be a very good defensive 1B. He's got huge size, which is valuable, he should have good range for a 1B, and his arm is above-average. Giving him half of a spring to become good at the position is unfair.

[volzok]

http://strike3forums.com/forums/show...&postcount=101
I guess you didnt read the top of that post, where I stated

Please Note I do not think that its a given what I write below will be what happens, just whats a POTENTIAL to happen.

Everyone else it seems to be already giving Pena the luarel of being an all star when we dont know what the future holds. Russell Branyan was just one who fit the other end of the spectrum. That is why I brought Branyan into the conversation.

I understand that and read it. I said what I said b/c its an opinion. Several think he CAN become dominant and other think he won't. Its an OPINION

Just different than yours.

[albbla2000mu]

Well, I agree with mission. I am done talking about this stupid trade. I hope you are right Wally. But I want more than .500. Since this deal happened, I now expect the Reds to make the playoffs or this trade is useless. I now expect other moves from Krivsky as the season goes on to keep the Reds competitive. So while I was looking for improvement this year, my expectations have now been raised and I will leave it at that.

ditto

[Slyder]

I understand that and read it. I said what I said b/c its an opinion. Several think he CAN become dominant and other think he won't. Its an OPINION

Just different than yours.

Sry about that thought it was Geki or someone else who had said I thought he would become Branyan. I just dont get why everyone thinks he will become a great hitter by default when anyone one of a million possibilities are there to occur.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I swear, if Hatteberg and Woemack are in the starting lineup for Opening Day, I am not watching. I'll casually follow the team this season, but a product that bad is not worth anyone's time.

I was really hoping they could take this and spin it into a positive (playing a youngster like Denorfia, adding Freel's speed and OBP to the top of the order, AKA going with the talent.) But obviously that isnt the case.

And how about the one-over they have pulled on Dunn. Oh, woops, sorry we made you miss the chance to play in the WBC, represent your country and possibly had helped them beat Mexico in the semi-finals so you could learn firstbase, just forget all that stuff. If I was Dunn, I would be PISSED.

That's my big problem with this deal at this point. Hatteberg and Woe-mack should not be in the Opening Day lineup.

If we decide to play the good offensive players and improve the defense, I might say this trade could at least potentially be pretty good, but otherwise, no way.

Narron must have really disliked WMP. He probably whined to Krivsky that he couldn't play the game the right way.

[albbla2000mu]

I think Volzok and I are on the same boat here b/c between we have probably seen about 158/162 of the games on tv, in person or together in person (15-25 games a year we get to). And basically you know what you are getting in Bronson (an average pitcher), and we both know the vast potential (and immense power Wily Mo has)...even as Adam Dunn puts it, 'there is power and then there is Wily Mo power'....I dont see the long term value in trading a guy like Wily Mo for Bronson.

[Wally Mo Pena]

i couldn't find anywhere that has stats on how pitchers convert between leagues, if anyone wants to point the way.

using my system based on arroyo's peripherals from the last two years, i project him to have a 4.03 ERA this year, but those peripherals included a DH, so it would probably be a hair lower.

using his peripherals from just last year it rises to 4.15, but again it would be a little lower if i could adjust it for league.

[NFLman2033]

i couldn't find anywhere that has stats on how pitchers convert between leagues, if anyone wants to point the way.

using my system based on arroyo's peripherals from the last two years, i project him to have a 4.03 ERA this year, but those peripherals included a DH, so it would probably be a hair lower.

using his peripherals from just last year it rises to 4.15, but again it would be a little lower if i could adjust it for league.

well since the addition of the DH in the AL, the league average ERA for the AL has been higher than the NL, almost by a whole run.

[Wally Mo Pena]

I dont see the long term value in trading a guy like Wily Mo for Bronson.

we control arroyo for as long as we were going to control wily mo pena, which is 3 years. so the "long term" is the same. In those three years, what is going to be worth more to the reds, a pitcher like arroyo who will produce lots of quality starts and will probably post harang like numbers, or another power hitting OF.

Here's a hint. We had the best offense in the league last year by a little bit, and the worst pitching in the league by a lot. the difference between hatteberg and casey isn't going to be much, and nothing else changes from last year with our offense. so wily mo was still an extra outfielder if our goal was to put up the same offensive numbers that we did last year, which were the best in the league.

So again, what is worth more over the next three years, another pitcher like harang, or an extra outfielder with terrible defense, terrible pinch hitting numbers, on the best offense in the league?

[Wally Mo Pena]

well since the addition of the DH in the AL, the league average ERA for the AL has been higher than the NL, almost by a whole run.

yeah, that's what makes me think that he'll see some improvement naturally, but i wonder if anyone has generated conversion stats specifically for individual players moving from AL to NL.

i would love it if bronson could shave a whole run of his ERA, but i doubt it will be that severe. I could see half a run or a little more, especially when park factors are considered.

[CincyRedsFan30]

This move moves dramatically from good to bad for me based on whether the team follows through in starting Dunn in LF and Hatteberg at 1B (and especially if Woe or Rich start at 2B).

Also, as mentioned by a couple of others, my expectations are now raised. I am expecting more of Krivsky later on if the team is somehow in contention (not countng on it). He has raised the bar. I hope this wasn't a desperate times, desperate measure type of move only. I hope subsequent moves relate to this move in some way as opposed to a last-second attempt to make the pitching better for this season only.

I imagine Castellini might have said something to Krivsky along the lines of: "We need to make a trade before Opening Day to show everyone we want to improve the pitching." That's OK by me, but I hope they have a plan for the future too. I hope they realize this move probably won't make them contenders and that they still need to address pitching through drafts, development and other possible mid-season trades.

And if they truly are trying to maximize the team's talent for this upcoming season, they HAVE to put Hatteberg on the bench and ensure Woe-mack doesn't start. I would like to see:

Freel 2B
Lopez SS
Dunn 1B
Griffey LF
Kearns RF
EdE 3B
Denorfia CF
LaRue C

I could even accept Aurilia at 2B if Dunn stayed at 1B. I could take Freel in the outfield an Dunn/Aurilia at 1B/2B or Denorfia in the outfield and Dunn/Aurilia at 1B/2B. I CAN'T take Hatteberg/Aurilia at 1B/2B with Dunn in the outfield or Hatteberg/Woe-mack at 1B/2B and Dunn in the outfield.

The team better change their thinking about playing Hatteberg and Aurilia or Woe-mack.

That situation and moves made regarding our future later in the year and beyond will indicate how much I end up liking this trade.

Oh, and PLEASE fire Jerry Narron. He has too much nonsensical influence in terms of what happens with this club. Krivsky probably got a mandate or something close to it from Castellini to trade someone for pitching before Opening Day and Narron decided to say: "Dump Pena so I can start Hatteberg and move Dunn back to LF."

Just go away, Jerry.

[Geki Ace]

There's no way Griffey isn't in CF. I'd like having Deno in LF, and I think it'd be worth giving him a shot as the 2nd hitter if he proves he can hit at a major league level, moving everyone else back a spot, but that also seems unlikely. Narron already said Hatteberg's starting at 1st and Dunn's moving to LF.

[bipster]

I just don't like this trade, but oh well.....I am not the GM