trade idea

[redsrbetter]

That last post from Wally puts me in a favor of Arroyo over Clement. Arroyo is just so affordable over the next three years that it would be a steal to get him at that price. The only thing keeping something like this from happening is the hand shake Boston has made with Arroyo.

[Providence A's]

Arroyo would be a good deal for the Reds, but let's get one thing straight here...he is not a #1 or #2 kinda guy. At best he is a #4. He may be a #2 on the Reds, but that isn't really saying much to be honest.

[Geki Ace]

Arroyo's affordable, sure. He's also struck out 4.38 batters per 9 innings last year and got noticeably worse when compared to the previous year. He's already 29 and he's an average pitcher at best with pretty much no upside. He's really no more valuable than Dave Williams, and at least Williams is 3 years younger. Kearns is easily more valuable than Casey, and trading him for the same thing we got for Casey is stupid. It's also not like we need to clear Kearns out to make space for someone else. Denorfia doesn't have the arm or power to be much of a rightfielder, and Szymanski and Bruce are both three years away.

And, seriously, you wanna talk about people being wrong? Arroyo hasn't been getting better, he's been getting worse. His world series experience means absolutely nothing to this team, and adding an average pitcher isn't going to turn us into a playoff contender. Kearns is our only competent defensive outfielder and taking him away would hurt our offense more than you think. You seem ready to give up on a 25-year-old outfielder with more potential than anyone on our team. He reportedly came into camp in great shape this year at around 235 pounds, 15 pounds lighter than what we last saw him at. Arroyo's an average starter at best, while Kearns is already an above average rightfielder. Trading for Arroyo really doesn't help us build for the future, and it makes no sense if you think about it logically. It's the kind of move a casual fan would like because people tend to think of Kearns as an injury-prone underachiever while Arroyo played well in the playoffs for Boston two years ago, giving him a much better reputation than his actual skill.

[Wally Mo Pena]

kearns isn't an above average right fielder, he was below average last year, and that was the best he's ever done. you're just caught up in the hype around kearns from his prospect days and the great start he had before ray king sat on him.

i hope kearns breaks out this year, that would be great. and arroyo did scuffle statistically last year, but living here i got to see him pitch all the time, and he was still developing and getting better, and in the process dropped his k's off. I'm expecting an ERA around 4.10 over 190 innings if he gets to start, and that is better than williams. Williams has never pitched more than 140 innings, and never posted an era 4.40. so what if he's young!? how many years do we have his contract for? 3. How long would we have arroyo for? 3. Are we going to re-sign williams? no. Is arroyo going to break down in his 29, 30, 31 seasons? no, those are very productive seasons for pitchers usually. so arroyo is better now, and will be better for the next three years.

If you want to debate whether or not kearns is worth more than arroyo, i really couldn't say. Maybe he is, maybe he'll be worth way less. To me they are close enough when you weigh risk, salary, and talent that the trade could work. so then the question becomes, are the reds more likely to win with Kearns and our rotation now over the next 3 years, or arroyo?

We know that the reds are never going to be able to sign a front line starter, they are always going to go to a contender with a bigger park and better defense so they look good. the reds are building around dunn and felo, and they're the only players who could bring a front line starter, so scratch that. taking all that into consideration, i think the reds are a better team with arroyo than they are with kearns, and could contend.

who knows in the end. I still don't think it's a stupid idea, but maybe kearns goes nuts and wins the mvp or something. kearns could certainly win a lot of games with his bat, but i fear this is what the reds and their fans always do: get scared to lose the sweet offense to improve the pitching. we tried to out-slug teams last year, and the results weren't good.

[Wally Mo Pena]

from the boston globe:

Arroyo, though, doesn't envision the Sox dealing him for a position player.

''Anything can happen, but I don't find it as being that valid," said Arroyo, signed this offseason to a three-year, $11.25 million deal. ''What's the worst-case scenario? We have seven [starters], right? Well, if I still think I'm one of the 12 best guys, I can still be on the club and pitch.

''Defensively, I don't think we need anybody else. [Unless] they want to go get somebody for me that's an unbelievable arm out of the pen, I don't see any other reason to make any other moves."

[Geki Ace]

Kearns was a top 10 RF in baseball last year if you factor in defense and how he rebounded after his stint in the minors. I'd classify that as "above average".

Arroyo's unlikely to improve at this point in his career, and if he gave us what he put up last year, there's no way we would've won the 12 or so more games we would've needed just to put us in the playoff hunt. You're overrating Arroyo a whole lot more than I'm overrating Kearns. We can't sign an ace, but that doesn't mean we should settle for mediocrity by trading someone as good as Kearns for Arroyo when it's not going to result in any more games won. We're gonna have to built pitching from within, and trying to win immediately when it's destined to fail miserably isn't good baseball.

[Wally Mo Pena]

well i guess we're just destined to diagree on this one. Arroyo gets nothing but rave reviews up here, and while it's not common for players his age to improve a lot, it's not unheard of. Also, factor in that last year was a down year and he'll probably rebound and that he'd be moving to the NL, and you'd get an above average pitcher (low 4s ERA) dirt cheap for three years. That's good to me.

My question is where you come up with this top ten stuff with kearns? He's nowhere on the vorp list, and 31st in OPS among rf with more than 100 plate appearances. No defensive stat you can site is going to jump him close to the top ten there. you're just guessing based on how you think he could do. if kearns puts up his .850 ops over a full season or close to it, then he'll probably be top 10 material, not until then.

varitek has said that arroyo will win 17 games, if you want to get into guessing.

[Geki Ace]

Of course people in Boston are gonna praise Arroyo. Uhdur?

I'm not sure where you got Kearns at at 31st among RF with more than 100 PAs, since I've got him in the mid-20's there, and around 15 among those with more than 350 PAs using ESPN.com. His defense is better than all but three or four of the guys ahead of him, and his post-minor league numbers would've put him at 6th among players with those qualifications.

And finally, If Bronson Arroyo wins 17 games this year, it'll be because he plays on the Red Sox, not because he's some kind of great pitcher or anything.

[Providence A's]

Even if you think Kearns will become a stud or something, the Reds will still have an extremely hard time trying to sell that to another team. He's not a prospect anymore and he's not really proven that he can be solid for a year. I think at this point Arroyo is the type of pitcher you can get.

Quality pitching is at a premium. Teams aren't just going to give it up unless they are overwhelmed by a proposal. There are more quality hitters that can be found than there are frontline starters. Even if the Reds dangled Felo and Dunn, I'd be surprised if they got a #1 type stud in return. Teams just aren't going to do that. The Reds are going to have to draft and develop if they ever want quality pitching.

[redsrbetter]

Who was the last ace type pitcher that was traded? Anybody know?

[Geki Ace]

Depends on your definition of ace, I suppose. I'd say Randy Johnson, probably.

[CincyRedsFan30]

The Reds need decent pitching to at least compete, which they could get in trades.

They do need to draft and develop if they really want to make a real push toward winning anything though.

[missionhockey21]

The key to that is bringing the staff with a proven track record of finding the right players and having the budget needed to sign who we need to.

Hopefully R Cast will realize this and the guys that slip due to outrageous demands, we'll take a chance on them. Or at the very least, don't let cost dictate what we do in the first round this year. If the ownership wants to win so badly, hopefully this will be our highest pick for awhile and we'll take full advantage of it. There are a few studs I am praying will slip to us.

[Fishercat]

big shocker there

we all know that bronson is to you as to zito is to kingdom...man crush city

Post. Read. Now. :P

[Wally Mo Pena]

Coincidentally, Gammons mentions this trade idea in his column today:

"The Red Sox are in the best position with seven starters. They can trade David Wells -- and if it is to San Diego, it would have to be a three-way deal -- or if an Austin Kearns becomes available they could move Matt Clement or Bronson Arroyo."