Minor League Thread

[volzok]

Well I figured that I would get this started back up again. Redsrbetter has giving me the blessing to keep this updated like I did for much of the season last year. Hopefully there will be lots of good things to talk about in this thread. Enough BS, onto the first article.

Reds Top 20 prospects by John Sickels at minorleagueball.com
1. Homer Bailey, RHP, Grade B+
2. Travis Wood, LHP, Grade B
3. Jay Bruce, OF, Grade B
4. B.J. Szymanski, OF, B-
5. Phil Dumatrait, LHP, B-
6. Chris Denorfia, OF, C+
7. Tyler Pelland, LHP, C+
8. Joey Votto, 1B, C+
9. Justin Germano, RHP, C+
10. Zach Ward, RHP, C+
11. Sam Lecure, RHP, C+
12. Bobby Basham, RHP, C+
13. Adam Rosales, SS, C+
14. Jeff Stevens, RHP, C+
15. William Bergolla, 2B, C
16. Travis Chick, RHP, C
17. Elizardo Ramirez, RHP, C
18. Rafael Gonzalez, RHP, C
19. James Avery, RHP, C
20. Miguel Perez, C, C

Not exactly a top system by any means. Bailey is a potentially excellent pitcher if he continues making progress with his command. I like both 2005 draftees Wood and Bruce, but we need to see them in a full season context. Guys like Szymanski, Dumatrait, Denorfia, and Pelland all have significant positives in their profile, but also major questions of one sort or another. Then you have a large mass of Grade C+/C type guys, more or less interchangeable.

Not really any surprises here from him. I thought he would have Lizard a little higher but maybe he didnt like what he saw from him with the Reds.

[Geki Ace]

I'm surprised he's got Dumatrait that high.

[albbla2000mu]

The only real encouraging this that they have top 2 being SP's. Of course they will likely get hurt/never develop/5 years away...but hey, its something.

[Wally Mo Pena]

travis wood is nowhere near the majors, but i think the reds are (for better or worse) going to rush baily and assume that he'll learn on the job at the major league level and in the mean time be as good as anyone we have. That's just my impression from things i've read, like the article today that said baily has the best stuff in spring traing RIGHT NOW.

I think baily will start this year at high A and be moved within a month or two to AA if he has any kind of success. If he can put together something reasonable at AA (like a 4.50 ERA with a lot of k's) he'll come to big league camp again next year, and start at AAA, and probably make his major league debut in the middle of the year or in sept 2007, when i think he'll be 21.

[Geki Ace]

We know Bailey has ridiculous stuff. It's his control that's the problem.

[Wally Mo Pena]

We know Bailey has ridiculous stuff. It's his control that's the problem.

it's like you read 3 words out of every post to respond to. I'm aware that his control is one of his issues, as are fielding, bunting, and endurance. What i said was that i think the reds will let him work on those things in the bigs if he can demonstrate that he can be effective to some degree, where as other clubs might wait for him to be dominant and polished in the minors.

i think his reds progression will go something like:

year level era k/9
2006 A+ 3.20 10
2006 AA 4.30 9
2007 AAA 4.50 9
2007 MLB 5.00 7
2008 MLB 4.20 8
2009 MLB 3.7 8.5

where as his progression with another team might be more like:

year level era k/9
2006 A+ 3.00 10.5
2007 AA 3.70 9.5
2008 AA 2.80 10
2008 AAA 3.90 9
2009 AAA 3.20 9.5
2009 MLB 3.5 9

which would be more traditional for a guy you want to see near the top of your rotation. but if the reds can get a league average ERA out of him while he works out the kinks, i think they will, even if it holds him back a little bit.

[Witlon]

I suppose I can chip in on this.

From the Baseball America Prospect Handbook...

Reds Top 30 Prospects
1. Homer Bailey, RHSP
2. Jay Bruce, OF
3. Travis Wood, LHSP
4. B.J. Syzmanski, OF
5. Chris Denorfia, OF
6. Rafael Gonzales, RHSP
7. Miguel Perez, CA
8. Tyler Pelland, LHSP
9. Joey Votto, 1B
10. Travis Chick, RHSP
11. William Bergolla, 2B/SS
12. Phil Dumatrait, LHSP
13. Zach Ward, RHSP
14. Paul Janish, SS
15. Adam Rosales, SS
16. Richie Gardner, RHSP
17. Thomas Pauly, RHSP
18. Brandon Roberts, OF
19. Chris Dickerson, OF
20. Philippe Valiquette, LHSP
21. Justin Germano, RHSP
22. James Avery, RHSP
23. Sam LeCure, RHSP
24. Bobby Basham, RHSP
25. Jovan Moran, OF
26. David Shaeffer, RHRP
27. Mike Burns, RHRP
28. Calvin Medlock, RHRP
29. Tonys Gutierrez, 1B
30. Elizardo Ramirez, RHRP/RHSP

Organization Strength: Outfield. Unfortunately, that's the team's strength in Cincinnati.

Organization Weakness: Infield. Nobody in the minors project as an above-average regular.

[ghettochild]

what happened to the last thread?

[CincyRedsFan30]

I think Sickels is underrating Denorfia. I think he should be more in the "B" range. I expect him to have a solid year.

I see him as another Freel in that I think he will work hard to get better and better. Most didn't see Freel becoming as good as he has over the last couple years but I thought he would stay consistent as soon as I saw him.

[Geki Ace]

The Reds aren't going to fast-track Bailey. Him showing off his stuff in spring training doesn't change that. I really don't think Bailey's going to develop into a good starting pitcher in the majors, if he even makes it that far. I'm thinking Luke Hudson is about what he'll be. Unless Bailey explodes and manages to put up amazing ERAs at every stop, which isn't going to happen with his lack of control, he's going to continue to slowly progress.

[Wally Mo Pena]

thanks for posting that Wilton.

i wonder where the differences come from. Sickles has Dumatrait, Germano, Lecure, Basham, and Stevens well higher than BA, and chick, gonzalez, perez, ward, janish, gardner well lower. looking at some of the guys sickles has lower, it looks like he puts more weight on injury history than BA maybe.

[Wally Mo Pena]

... I really don't think Bailey's going to develop into a good starting pitcher in the majors, if he even makes it that far. I'm thinking Luke Hudson is about what he'll be.

what gives you that impression? He's clearly got way better stuff than hudson, and everyone who sees him seems to say he'll be great.

[Geki Ace]

A very bad feeling about him. And when we first drafted him, people were saying he was gonna be an ace. Now that's been dropped to likely #2 starter by most sources. I've heard his work ethic leaves a bit to be desired, and there's a bad vibe I'm getting from him. I'll guarantee right now that he never becomes an ace.

[homerun21]

Whoa, you're getting way ahead of yourself there Geki. No one knows how good he'll be, but you certainly shouldn't be writing off a 19 year old kid with the stuff Bailey has.

[ghettochild]

A very bad feeling about him. And when we first drafted him, people were saying he was gonna be an ace. Now that's been dropped to likely #2 starter by most sources. I've heard his work ethic leaves a bit to be desired, and there's a bad vibe I'm getting from him. I'll guarantee right now that he never becomes an ace.

he said baseball is his job and not his passion, thats probably why