O'Brien: An outfielder will be traded

[CincyRedsFan30]

It's more like no trade will happen unless the other team offers us a fair deal, which would include a top-notch starter for Dunn and another decent pitcher.

[redsfan28]

How about Dunn for Roy Oswalt?!

[Wally Mo Pena]

dunn isn't going anywhere. he's the franchise here, and we would need another teams franchise player, who is a pitcher, in return. That's a deal i don't think DanO could pull off, and i think he's too scared that he'd mess up to even try. I don't even know who would be an option. Santana? Peavy? Even someone like patterson wouldn't be a good enough deal.

so that leaves kearns and pena. if i had to lay money on it, i'd probably say that pena will be shipped, mostly because narron seemed to get fed up with his defense pretty quickly last year. Pena doesn't have the fundamentals that kearns does (at least in the field) and narron loves. I will stick with my story though that the reds should shop them both and make the best trade in terms of return. I would be happy to have either of them in the OF, so i think we should get the best pitcher we can.

Our offense and d isn't going to be what kills us, it will be our pitching. If we can get a good starter and a prospect for one and a good starter for the other, i take the first deal.

And i'll mention the twins again, since i think they are in the reverse position that we are and have players that would work in a deal for pena or kearns.

[BigRedMachine]

My guess would be Pena. Kearns could be but he seems to have an injury question on him so far in his career so noone is going to ask for him most likely. Dunn is solid in there IMO and with JR returning to form I think they keep him in hopes he can make it two in a row. That just leaves Pena out there to get some good talent in return.

[Wally Mo Pena]

Going over the list of FAs, there really aren't that many bats of note out there, which i think plays to the reds advantage.

Here's what i find:

These guys are legit and will make good $ (note, 2 OF)
konerko
damon
giles
r. hernandez
polanco
nomar
furcal

these guys are notable but have ?s and will sign somewhere, but i think teams would rather have kearns/pena for the bat and the $$, since these guys will probably all make more.

r. white
t. graffanino
durazo
kotsay
winn
hidalgo
t clark
cruz jr
t walker
pr wilson
w helms
piazza
lofton
grudz
loretta
long
r sanders
d roberts
sweeny

[missionhockey21]

How about Dunn for Roy Oswalt?!

I would do that in a hearbeat and I love having Dunn but the Astros would never do it. Their going to build that staff around Oswalt and all the rumored Dunn to Houston deals involve them essentially sending a few of their better prospects but no one who has the stud potential that Oswalt already has.

[love_that_reefer]

The Reds are asking for the farm in deals with Kearns and Pena. That is just not going to happen. The Reds management needs to be realistic. If Dunn goes, why even have a GM?

[Slyder]

I would do that in a hearbeat and I love having Dunn but the Astros would never do it. Their going to build that staff around Oswalt and all the rumored Dunn to Houston deals involve them essentially sending a few of their better prospects but no one who has the stud potential that Oswalt already has.

Especially when Clemens is older than Father Time, Pettitte is 33, Biggio is 40 (in Dec), Bagwell is 37, Ausmus is 36. Trading one of the younger pitchers, even for an offensive force like Dunn, makes no sense.

This year shows great pitching will still beat great hitting.

[RockSports17]

Going over the list of FAs, there really aren't that many bats of note out there, which i think plays to the reds advantage.

Here's what i find:

These guys are legit and will make good $ (note, 2 OF)
konerko
damon
giles
r. hernandez
polanco
nomar
furcal

these guys are notable but have ?s and will sign somewhere, but i think teams would rather have kearns/pena for the bat and the $$, since these guys will probably all make more.

r. white
t. graffanino
durazo
kotsay
winn
hidalgo
t clark
cruz jr
t walker
pr wilson
w helms
piazza
lofton
grudz
loretta
long
r sanders
d roberts
sweeny

Polanco isn't a Free Agent, he was resigned by the Tigers in the season.

[Providence A's]

Kotsay signed an extension, but was signed for next year anyway...he wasn't and won't be a FA. I think Winn signed with the Giants, too IIRC.

IMHO, I don't think the Reds will get as good return as expected for Kearns or Pena.

[love_that_reefer]

Winn has an option withthe Giants who have foolishly not picked up yet.

[CincyRedsFan30]

If we can't get a good return for Kearns or Pena, then no team should get a good return for many players, because they are both young and talented offensively.

I would rather hang on to all of the outfielders than trade them for slop.

[Wally Mo Pena]

i wish i could, but i don't agree with CRF on this one as far as what we should get for kearns or pena. it's just too easy for us reds fans to get high on a player we think COULD be really good, but the fact of the matter is neither Kearns nor Pena has much evidence to show that they can be a top performer at the major league level.

for example: this year, our RF put up a combined .774 OPS, which was good for 20th best in the majors. That's not really that much to offer someone. "Hey, take one of these guys and you'll have the 20th best right fielder in the league."

We reds fans know that either guy could turn into a perenial all-star, but they haven't proved it yet. If we went to a team and said here take the 20th best right fielder, i would imagine that they would offer people like gil meche at worst and brad halsey at best or near best. Those are the type of guys who fall around the 33rd percentile of pitchers under 28, roughly equivalent to 33rd percentile of RF.

i think the reds have guys now who can put up those numbers (hancock, belisle, ramirez, maybe hudson if he turns it around), and it wouldn't be worth trading one of our guys for someone like that.

But the reds need to get rid of one of them, since they have both basically asked to be traded to play every day.

the best thing the reds can do is a)either get over on some GM and get a guy like daniel cabrerra from the orioles who is a little better than the guys above but has a lot of upside, which is not likely, or b) get a younger guy with upside who hasn't proven anythind yet either.

[Providence A's]

some of you guys could learn from Wally

[CincyRedsFan30]

We should get young starters with potential that is equal to that of Kearns/Pena. Kearns has a career OPS of .821 and is young(that's the key point some seem to be missing. How many players that are around the same age of Pena are still in the minors? He is already starting to establish himself as a power hitter The same goes for Kearns.) We should be able to get a young starter for him who has already put up decent numbers and has the potential to be among the league elites, as Kearns does based on his minor league numbers and what he has shown at various times in the majors.

That would be the one advantage of trading Dunn, however. We should get one of the top 10 or 15 pitchers in baseball for him, because he has established himself as one of the top 15 hitters according to the facts.