Top coaches set to return

[missionhockey21]

Top coaches set to return
Reds fall to Cardinals in season finale, 7-5
By Hal McCoy
Dayton Daily News

ST. LOUIS | Pitching coach and hitting coach, the two most important coaching pieces, will remain the same when the Cincinnati Reds report to spring training in mid-February to try to turn around five years of losing misery and pathetic play.

Manager Jerry Narron, given assurance by general manager Dan O'Brien that he can pick his coaches for next season, definitely will bring back pitching coach Vern Ruhle and hitting coach Chris Chambliss.

On Sunday, in the season finale, the Reds did what the Reds do best — bash the ball and lose. They hit three homers, but the Cardinals tore into Brandon Claussen for six runs and 11 hits in five innings, stopping the Reds, 7-5 after the Reds once led, 5-1.

In the third inning, Felipe Lopez, Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns hit back-to-back-to-back home runs, fittingly breaking the club record for homers in a season with 222, a record of 221 set by the 1956 team.

Dunn's home run was his 40th, his second straight year with 40 or more, while Lopez with 23 and Kearns with 18 both established career bests.

Asked if all those home runs meant anything, Narron said, "Yes, you win with pitching and defense. Texas hit a lot of home runs this year, too, and look where they are."

The Reds finished 73-89, three games worse than last year, one place lower in the standings at fifth and 27 games behind the Cardinals in the National League Central.

The Reds lost their last four and six of seven, a fitting conclusion to another forgettable sojourn to nothingness.

Now Narron turns his attention to the coaching staff.

There are pitchers who want bullpen coach Tom Hume elevated to pitching coach, but while Narron highly respects Hume, he believes Ruhle should be rewarded for what has happened since he replaced fired Don Gullett on June 21.

"I have thought from the beginning that Hume would make an excellent pitching coach," said Narron. "But you see the numbers and how the pitching improved since Vern got here and you can only say that Vern deserves to be here.

"Don Gullett was very popular with the pitchers and it was difficult for Vern filling in, but with the improvement we've shown he deserves the chance."

Over the last 92 games under Ruhle, Reds pitchers compiled an earned run average nearly a run lower than that under Gullett — 4.75 to 5.66.

On the negative side, the team set a club record for fewest shutouts, one, and tied the team record for fewest complete games, two.

Under Chambliss, the Reds led the league in runs scored, total bases, home runs, doubles, slugging average . . . and strikeouts.

"We had a little trade-off," said Chambliss. "Yes, we led the league in strikeouts, but we led the league in offense."

Narron has chatted personally with all the coaches — Ruhle, Chambliss, bench coach Johnny Moses, third-base coach Mark Barry, first-base coach Randy Whisler and Hume — and said he will talk with O'Brien during the organizational meetings this week in Sarasota before revealing his determinations.

"I know Jerry wants me and I'd love to come back," said Chambliss. Told that Narron has the say on coaches, Chambliss said, "Then I'll be back."

Narron said he would love to have former Boston manager Grady Little as bench coach and Little, a front office assistant to Chicago Cubs general manager Jim Hendry, wants to get back on the field.

After Narron was fired as Texas manager in 2002, Little hired Narron as his bench coach in Boston for the 2003 season.

"I'd love to have him, but it is a matter of, 'Is he a fit?' " said Narron. "A coaching staff is like the players, it has to be a team that fits. You have to have a pitching coach, hitting coach, infield coach, outfield coach and catching coach. Grady's expertise is catching."

Narron, too, was a major-league catcher, but as a manager it would seem he could use help in dealing with catchers.

Questions remain with Barry, Whisler and Moses, the guy brought in to be bench coach when Narron was elevated from bench coach to interim manager.

"One question I had for Dan before I took the job was if I would have say on the coaches and he said, 'Yes,' " said Narron. "The coaches are here because they belong here. We'll have an answer next week."

Aritcle Link

[Wally Mo Pena]

people get bent out of shape about the strikeouts, and i myself wrote a piece for the forums article page that showed that it's better to fly out than to strike out. But not by that much, because it's what you do when you don't get out that counts with offense.

The reds had griffey jr for 4 months of greatness this year, but he is the only regular who you can say is not a project of one kind or another at the plate. Noe of them are established mashers like sheffield and a-rod or ortiz and manny.

That the reds led the league in runs scored says a lot about chambliss in my opinion, because he had players doing what they could and making strides. Sure, some players had down years, but no one fell off all the way, and a lot of those that struggled bounced back.

The other criticism of the reds offense is that they are too sporatic. I don't always fall on the side of the sabermatricians, but the "pythagorian formula" for wins and losses: (RS^1.85)/(RS^1.85 + RA^1.85), that is directly related to runs scored and runs allowed, predicts winning percentage within 3 games almost without fail. The reds this year were just below their pythagorian predection of 75 wins.

what that means is that over the course of a long season, if you score runs and don't give up runs, however it comes, you win. So i'm happy with chambliss, he's got the reds doing what they need to win from an offensive standpoint.

for those who are interested, if the reds put up the same number of runs next year that they did this year (i think they could do better with better lineups and development of the young guys) they would need to allow 740 runs or less to finish with 89 wins (houston's total) based on the formula. this year they gave up 889, so the pitching is going to have to get WAY better, not just a little better, if we want to compete for the post season. That's basically a run/game less.

[Geki Ace]

I'm still not enamoured with Chambliss. The Reds have an insane amount of offensive talent, and he really doesn't seem to get the most out of it. And he also needs to teach the team the little things at the plate. Nobody on the team can bunt except Olmedo, and the pitchers are pathetic at the plate. The pitcher's spot shouldn't be a complete black hole. Even a .200 average is fine, but not the pathetic performances put up by, oh, everyone this year.

[Wally Mo Pena]

i doubt that it's the hitting coaches call whether the pitchers take batting practice. there are very few teams that require it, the reds aren't one of them, and i would bet it goes to the manager, the pitching coach, and the individual pitchers to decide that they practice.

[redsrbetter]

Great post Wally.

After I saw your stat on Runs Allowed for the season (889), I began to wonder how many runs we gave up post Gullett. The reason I am looking at this direction is to get a bare minimal picture of what we may have next season under Ruhle. If we were to keep our current rotation under Ruhle, what could it look like?

Post All-Star break the team allowed 364 runs. If we were to double that we would get 728. That clears the appropriate 740 or less. This is not even speaking the incredible if that can be apart of the equation as well. If we get some new arms or one new arm that is better than what we got with Milton this past offseason, we will have even better numbers. But that is all up to MR. O'Brien.

[Geki Ace]

Post all-star break is less games than pre all-star break, though.

[Wally Mo Pena]

Post All-Star break the team allowed 364 runs. If we were to double that we would get 728. That clears the appropriate 740 or less.

good point redsr, but the second half this year was only 73 games. In those game the reds scored 381 runs and gave up 364 as redsr said. if you plug that into the formula - 381^1.85/(381^1.85 + 364^1.85) - you get an expected winning percentage of .521, which over 73 games gets you a record of 38 and 35: exactly what the reds actually produced.

over a full season scoring at this rate and allowing at this rate would give us a record close to 84-78, or 5 games out of the wildcard. I'd take that in a heartbeat over what we just saw this season, we'd probably have some exciting games in august and the beginning of september, but it's not where we want to be in the end.

giving up runs at the rate we did in the second half would give us a full season of 807 RA. But we also scored more under Narron in the second "half" and a full season of that would give us 845 RS. To get to 89 wins with that level of offense we would need to give up around 760 runs, or about 50 less than we would have this year under a full season of Narron.

In any case, i think redsr made a good point in illustrating that the full season that i discussed in my post above reflected a lot of the old ways, and that to think about where we need to go for next season, we should think about the shape that our team is in right now.

Under Narron we played like a team that is a few games over .500. Now it's up to DanO to shave 50 runs off of our pitching staff (which one ace could do compared to ramon ortiz).

[missionhockey21]

I am really scared that the rotation will get worse and not better. Well actually I am just more concerned about what Paul Wilson will be capable of and how quickly they rush him.