Erardi- Could Kearns be best to trade?

[missionhockey21]

Could Kearns be best to trade?
By John Erardi / Enquirer staff writer

The consensus around baseball is that it will be at least another two years, and probably three, before the Reds are in a position similar to that of the Cleveland Indians: legitimately vying for a berth in the postseason.

And that's if everything goes perfectly.

It all comes down to pitching, a department in which the Reds are (again, by consensus) light years away.

Everybody knows there aren't enough Homer Bailey-types in the Reds farm system to turn things around.

Which brings us, as it always does, to the Reds outfield situation: A case could be made that the outfielder the Reds should trade - if they can get a No. 2- or No. 3-type starter for him - is Austin Kearns, who has regained his batting stroke and has the defensive game and other instincts to play for anybody in baseball.

Of course, that means enduring full-time the obvious growing pains of Wily Mo Pena, but what other choice do the Reds have?

Auctioning off one of the other two outfielders - Ken Griffey Jr. or Adam Dunn - might bring more in return than Kearns, but a case could be made that the Reds should keep them around if only for big-bop entertainment value. They are the kind of guys who can keep attendance from going into a complete free-fall, while the Reds endure what likely will be a sixth straight losing season in '06.

Kearns, by the way, is making no demands, nor should he. But when a reporter visited him before Saturday's game to ask about his numbers (16 home runs and 63 RBI in only 353 at-bats going into Saturday's game) and his thoughts about next season, Kearns said he is hopeful the Reds outfield situation can be cleared up soon.

Because, by no definition you can come up with, was the strategy of playing four starting-quality type outfielders in three spots a success this season.

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[Geki Ace]

We have to bring back Kearns. He's the man.

[Reds_fan_4_life]

yea i agree. I think with kearns staying healthy it might bring great things to this team. I say you must keep the core. Core= Dunn/Kearns/Felipe Lopez . Sign those 3 long term and we build around that. If we had pitching then i have no doubt in my mind that we would contend for the Wildcard next year. Our offense is tops in majors in most catergories just need some fixing in the SP area, like we always have said...

[Wally Mo Pena]

wily mo has a higher ceiling, he's cheaper, and he would bring less in trade. Trading kearns makes sense because we get more back for a player who will cost us more and doesn'thave the same potential of wily.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I think Kearns has more potential based on what I saw of him when he was called up. I haven't seen many publications who have differed from my opinion on that issue.

[Slyder]

Pitchers are at enough of a disadvantage in the number of homers that fly out of there, we cant afford to have two questionable defensive OFs out there everyday.

[Wally Mo Pena]

I think Kearns has more potential based on what I saw of him when he was called up. I haven't seen many publications who have differed from my opinion on that issue.

I havne't seen anyone saying kearns has more potential, just that he is the more polished player right now. all the "publications" that i've seen have said that you just don't know where Wily Mo is going to end up because he played so little minor league ball and he's so young, but that he has the potential to be a 5-tool star.

what have you seen of Kearns' potential since he got injured? maybe he'll get back to those levels again, but it's been two years since the injury that really set him back.

Wily Mo has improved his defense this year and i think he'll be less of a liability next year.

I'm not saying i think Wily Mo is better than Kearns right now, but i think it would be smarter to move kearns for the future. If they deal Wily Mo and keep kearns, i'll be happy because the problem we have is one of too much good. Either way i think the reds will be alright in the OF.

But i think Kearns is nearing his potential now. I think, if he can stay healthy, that a reasonable line for kearns next year would be: .270/.340/.480, which is good and probably where he'll be for most of his career. He manages to drive in runs, which i like, but i don't think that he's going to be the dominant force that people thought when they ranked him as a better prospect than Pujols or Dunn.

Wily Mo on the other hand i think will blossom when he learns to lay off miserable pitches. He has so much power that when he starts swinging at beter pitches, the shots are going to come. And the more power that comes, the more pitchers will pitch around him, and the higher is OBP will get. It seems reasonable to me for Wily to have an OPS around 900 year in and year out once he matures a little more.

[missionhockey21]

I think Kearns has more potential based on what I saw of him when he was called up. I haven't seen many publications who have differed from my opinion on that issue.

We've seen projections based off minor league/major league stats, talent observations etc.... but what do they tell us? Kearns is a more polished player (talent and stat wise), no one will argue that and his ceiling is more predictable. But predicting Wily Mo's ceiling is much trickier. We all know the power potential, the athleticism, the work ethic, etc... but where will that lead him? Trouble is, without consistent seasons of full time play, I really don't think you can predict Wily Mo's potential. Kearns is the safer choice in terms of prediction but when you have an X-factor like Wily Mo on your team (no OBP raw power pinch hitter or consistent 40+ homer stud) it's hard to let him go.
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The fact is we need to get rid of either Griffey or Casey even if it means dumping Casey off for nothing. We can't sacrifice our future (which both Kearns and Pena need to be apart of) so we don't upset the fanbase who would get angry by trading the Mayor. This offseason it will come down to choosing what we would rather lose, talent or cash. Let's face it, we're not going to get equal value for any of the mentioned 5 (Griffey, Casey, Dunn, Kearns, Pena) and hopefully Dan O will realize that the future talent of the club is more important than trading a potential stud bat off for a middle of the pack pitcher.

[Wally Mo Pena]

Gammons mentioned today that with such a poor FA class coming, the big contracts (he mentions Manny Ramirez and Casey specifically) are going to be a lot more moveable.

The problem is, even if we can get someoone to take Casey, we're not going to get a good starting pitcher for him. We're probably not even going to get a minor leaguer who projects to being a good major league starter.

I agree mission, that it seems like Kearns, Dunn, and Wily should be a part of our future, because they're all young. but we know this team can put runs on the board already, and probably will with Wily or Kearns gone, since one of them has been on the bench this whole time. If this was a down year for Casey we can probably expect more runs next year too. What this team needs as part of it's future is a good pitcher.

I think our best shot at getting a good (maybe even young) pitcher is with austin kearns, as long as you make dunn untouchable which i think they should, and acknowledge that they aren't going to trade griffey for one reason or another.

We have to take our best shot at getting a pitcher, so in the end that should be how this debate is settled, not by who projects higher, or who's younger. Wily and Kearns have both shown they can be among the elite for little stretches, and they've both shown they can stink for stretches.

If i were DanO, i would let the other teams know early this offseason that Casey, Kearns, and Wily are available (maybe packaged with a prospect), and the best pitcher offered gets the deal done, that simple.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I feel more comfortable personally in keeping Kearns. I really think he will break back out next year.

[Wally Mo Pena]

but what about my point that Kearns will probably get the best pitcher in trade?

I think a lineup of

Freel
Lopez
Dunn
Griffey
Pena
Casey
Larue
Encarnacion

still puts up a ton of runs, plenty to be a contender in any case.

If Kearns can get us a good pitcher and wily mo can get us a low end pitcher (which i think we have plenty of), i think you have to trade kearns.

if wily mo and kearns will get us the same pitcher, then i guess it's back to square one in deciding who to trade. I'd love to see kearns break out, i've always rooted for him, and if wily can get us a good pitcher and kearns has a good year, i think the reds will do well.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Well Dunn would get the best pitching in a trade. It's all a matter of how important the team thinks it is to keep an Offense in place that can lead the NL in Runs Scored like this much maligned but great Offense is.

Tracy Jones was discussing it on Extra Innings the other day. The team could go the route of trading more than one outfielder(which would probably drop the offense down to around top five or so instead of the top) and adding multiple quality pitchers or keeping most of the Offense together while adding slightly less pitching. If the right deal came along, I have to say I wouldn't be opposed to trading say both Pena AND Kearns(if we got two definite stud pitchers in return to join Harang and Claussen in the rotation). I'm not saying we would get that return, but IF someone offered it...

Imagine the lineup without Kearns/Pena:
Freel 2B
Lopez SS
Dunn LF
Griffey CF
Casey 1B
Encarnacion 3B
LaRue C
Denorfia RF

Obviously I would like to trade Casey instead one of those two outfielders, but I'm nto sure that will be able to happen.

[Wally Mo Pena]

i could really see that working, i think the offense would be fine with both of them gone. The problem is that right now we have Milton and Wilson on contract for next year, so we technically only "need" one starting pitcher to fill the rotation.

I'm all for giving paul wilson one more shot at it, it would be great if he got some velocity back, he's a smart pitcher. I would love to see DanO get rid of Milton if at all possible and bring in two good pitchers like you said, but he'd have to get rid of milton first.

and then there's the situation with belisle, germano, elizardo, hancock et al. I think belisle will be a decent starter, and the rest seem to have promise, so if we get two pitchers where are we going to put all of those guys?

I agree that our offense would be fine with kearns and pena both gone, but i think what we need is one top of the rotation guy. not that i would really have a problem getting two.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I don't see how the team can possibly justify keeping Milton around. I'm really hoping new owners come in and force whoever is the GM to dump Milton. Wilson is a tough choice. I'm really nervous about what his health might be like and with a control pitcher like them, he has to have all of his mechanics going for him. I would personally rather see both of them gone, with Harang and Claussen making up the front of the rotation, Germano getting a chance and possibly Belisle(that is if we don't trade for a couple of starters instead).