baseball prospectus notebook on Griffey

[Wally Mo Pena]

Cincinnati Reds: To say that Ken Griffey Jr. is having a good season would be a gross understatement. Griffey has blown through his weighted-mean PECOTA forecast, as well as his 60th, 75th and 90th percentile projections. His 90th percentile projection had him clocking in at a VORP of 42.9 and a WARP of 6.0. Griffey entered Wednesday’s action with a VORP of 63.4 and a WARP of 6.6. A lot of this is because PECOTA did not figure Griffey would stay healthy, and with good reason--Griffey had not compiled 500 at-bats in any of the four seasons preceding 2005. In fact, from 2001-2004 Griffey had just 1027 at-bats as he suffered a series of leg injuries. Will Carroll’s Team Health Report back in March had Griffey listed as a red light, the least optimistic of Will’s health rankings. Let’s go back and look at his comment for Griffey:

"He's a known risk with a new twist. Griffey and teammate Jason Romano both had a new type of surgery to reconnect their torn hamstrings. Team doctor Tim Kremchek is very confident in the procedure, but admits it's new and they don't know exactly how things will go. With Griffey, baseball fans know how things usually go. We're all hoping this HoFer can have that one last healthy season."
It appears after watching Griffey play this year, that kudos are in order for the good doctor. Griffey has not only avoided the DL, but he has been on the field consistently; only Adam Dunn and Sean Casey have accrued more plate appearances for the Reds this season. This renewed health has helped him take his game to new heights for a player his age. Looking at players age 35 from 1972-present, who spent at least half the season in center field, we see that Griffey’s 2005 campaign is the cream of the crop:

Name Year G in CF VORP VORPr HR ISO OPS
Ken Griffey Jr. 2005 124 63.36 .490 35 .275 946
Brady Anderson 1999 128 63.16 .401 24 .195 880
Steve Finley 2000 146 52.28 .359 35 .263 903
Jim Edmonds 2005 120 47.08 .403 25 .264 925
Brett Butler 1992 155 44.55 .273 3 .081 789
Devon White 1998 141 33.90 .227 22 .178 788
Bernie Williams 2004 94 30.99 .208 22 .173 794
Amos Otis 1982 125 25.58 .206 11 .135 754
Fred Lynn 1987 98 18.98 .184 23 .235 807
Kenny Lofton 2002 135 18.73 .196 11 .152 761


Griffey is the tops in all five categories, which showcases cumulative as well as rate statistics. Looking further back than 1972, through the power of translated statistics, we can look at some past greats:

Name Year G in CF HR OPS
Willie Mays 1966 145 44 999
Joe Dimaggio 1950 137 45 1010
Ty Cobb 1922 133 27 1017
Tris Speaker 1923 150 48 1079


"Where’s the Mick?" you ask? Mickey Mantle was not a center fielder in his age-35 season, as he had made the transition to first base. And while this list is not quite exhaustive, when you have to go back that far in time to make comparisons, it is more than fair to say that we are witnessing a historic run from The Kid. Again, using the 1972-present timetable, we also see that Griffey’s 2005 campaign is the only one of 17 that ranks in the top 10 in VORP for a position player 35 or older.

Whether you use Clay Davenport’s Objective Hall of Fame or Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric, Griffey has an airtight resume. Should any of this stop the Reds from trading him this off-season? Of course not. While it would be tempting to trade Austin Kearns and play Griffey, Dunn and Wily Mo Pena full-time, or perhaps dispose of Casey and move Dunn to first base, the bottom line is that trading Kearns or Casey would likely not bring the haul that would come with trading Griffey. This is not to endorse trading Griffey, but rather recommend that Cincy carefully evaluate what will be best for the Reds of 2008 and 2009 rather than the Reds of 2006, who do not look to have a rosy outlook barring some sort of dramatic off-season transformation. If the Reds believe that Griffey can start a run of Bonds-like excellence in his late 30s, that will make their decision more difficult.

--Paul Swydan

[missionhockey21]

Thanks for posting that article Wally, I enjoyed reading that. It's neat to see how Griffey's season ranks historically since I think in one sense many (or at least I do anyway) take Griffey's renewed play for granted. This is what we were expecting when he came over 5 years ago. Of course I'm appreaciative of what he has done and he's surely made another losing season all that much more exciting and engaging but again, this is what I have been expecting.... in other words, it's been a long time coming. But when you consider that Griffey is 35 and playing such a demanding position, his performance has been remarkable. And that's not even factoring that he hasn't been getting consistent AB's for the past several YEARS and that he came off of essentially experimental surgery. Griffey is by no means a sure thing but the hammy held up this year and it's obvious that his bat hasn't lost much at all with all the trips in and out of hospital rooms. The question that this all begs though (like the BP article pointed out) is Griffey on the path for a late career surge and what to do if that is the case?

Thanks again for posting that Wally.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Yeah, thanks for posting that Wally. It was a nice read, which is why I gave you rep. for it.

Even if Griffey doesn't have another AB this year(and I hope he does since I'll be going on Saturday night!), what he's done after what he had been through is truly amazing and really makes me feel good not only for we the fans for finally getting to see him like this, but more importantly for Griffey himself. It has to feel great to come back like he has. He has worked so hard and the payoff is very big.

[missionhockey21]

I feel the same way CRF. With all those injuries, I seemed to at first focus on the impact that it would have on the Reds. Obviously I was still concerned for Jr's health and well-being for his sake as a person and not just as a ballplayer. But over time it got to the point where I just really felt for the guy and the struggles that he had to endure for the game that he loved. He's never given up or called it quits when so many have pleaded for him to (many of which have rooted for him this season like they never once said that.) From a numbers and a human standpoint... this has been one special season and one worthy of Comeback Player of The Year honors WITHOUT QUESTION.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Jim Rome still hates him, but Jim Rome is Jim Rome.

He is clearly the Comeback Player of the Year and it makes me SICK when I see Giambi mentioned.

[missionhockey21]

Griffey could hit .400 with 80 bombs and Jim Rome would still find something to complain about with Griffey... that's just his sad nature.

[Wally Mo Pena]

i don't get it. why doesn't rome like griffey? what's not to like?

[Geki Ace]

Jim Rome is an ass. No explanation necessary.