Reds want two MLB players and a spect for Dunn supposedly

[missionhockey21]

It's also why he's not going to land Adam Dunn.

Dunn is fourth in the National League with 23 home runs. He's first with 94 strikeouts. His $4.6 million salary could double by next season.

He makes the Astros better, but inside the front office, there's disagreement on how much better.

Not that it would matter. Bad teams tend to overvalue their best players. The Reds apparently want as many as two major-league players and a prospect.

Purpura should tell the Reds thanks but no thanks unless the price drops dramatically. Almost every available player has a negative.

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[redsrbetter]

No, you do not drop that price. that is what Dunn is worth to us. In other words, it would be so hard for us to lose him, that we would need major compensation for the loss. Other GMs should realize why the price is so high. If you want him, be prepared to give something up. So don't come after him if you are trying to contend this yera because we will ask for your best pitcher.

On this, I am happy to feel like Dunn will not be traded this season.

[CincyRedsFan30]

The thing is, Dunn IS worth a couple of a good starters and perhaps a spec. If they were a one and two starter...maybe not, but if they are just two "good" starters, we would have to have a spec. thrown in as well. If it were one great starter and a position player who is good, that MIGHT do it, but it would depend on exactly who the starter and position player were. I'm not sure who would really be an upgrade as a position player though. Maybe if we are going to trade Casey and we want someone to fill that void something could work, but we have EdE, Lopez, Freel and the outfielders set and I don't see anyone coming who would be an upgrade over LaRue.

[Fishercat]

The problem is, that Dunn's value is questioned from person to person. If you get a player with the pythagorean rate stats (.300-.400-.500) who plays good defense, then everyone can basically agree on his value. To traditionalists he is a .300 hitter with decent power who can play the field. To stat-heads, he is a guy who getso n base 40% of the time with a little pop in the bat. Same player.

However, if you have a guy who can go .240-.400-.550 like Dunn, the stat heads will love him, the traditionialsts won't. They'll see ".240 hitter with power, Dave Kingman", they won't see the productive player.

This is a problem because you have GMs who either are or heavily rely on scouts who follows traditional statures (right or wrong). That limits your possibilities. LA might give you value, Boston might give you good value (if they had it), the Yankees might give you good value (if they had it), the Mets likely won't since they have Minaya.

So even if Dunn is worth two good starters and perhaps a prospect, what are the odds of getting it with a limited base?

[Providence A's]

that seems a bit much (especially since Dunn's salary is going to go up next year and beyond and the Reds probably won't be able to afford him), but I guess it depends on how much you wanna win

[CincyRedsFan30]

We could trade him to the Cards, but we don't need to help Jocketty out anymore. He does OK without our help.

I actually wouldn't mind trading with LA. I've been very unimpressed with the Dodgers' team based on their payroll, and I don't think DePodesta is a particularly good GM.

[Sea Ray]

No way you trade him to St Louis. I really don't want him going w/i our division anyway. It's too hard to generalize here as to whether he's worth two pitchers and a prospect. It all depends on who those players are. If the pitchers are Elarton and Betancourt then no way. If a team resists giving up major league players then the price goes up in terms of prospects since that is a much more uncertain thing.

Dunn means an awful lot to this team and I wouldn't give him away. If another team balks at our price then we keep him. I'm only for trading Dunn if we get a huge return.

Absolutely we can afford him. He's not someone who needs to be dumped for salary reasons. Aside from losing the salaries of Jimenez, Graves, Weber, Randa and possibly more next year we'll also lose Casey's after next year if money is an issue.

If Dunn has another year like last year and his stats don't show that anything has changed (about .245, 40 some HRs, 180 some Ks) I don't see him $4mill salary doubling like some sportswriters have written.

[CincyRedsFan30]

The salary will go way up though, because he knows some teams would given him that type of salary(the Cards, Red Sox, etc.). Those teams understand how good he is and would value him appropriately. Those two organizations are both big winners right now in part because of that type of thinking. Obviously they have a ton of money to spend, but they aren't afraid to give players like Dunn the amount of money they deserve. They know he has 24 HR and 54 RBI despite batting 6th or 7th quite often this year. They know he has a .386 OBP combined with a .563 SLG percentage to produce a .949 OPS. They realize he has 20 extra-base hits, along with 63 BB.

To put it into perspective:

He has 71 hits on the year, 63 BB and 6 HBP. (Meaning he has been on 140 times!). 24 of the 71 hits have been HR, 18 of them Doubles, and 2 of them Triples. He has 27 singles to go with the 63 BB, meaning he has reached 1B 96 times counting the HBP, 2B 18 times, 3B 2 times, and all the way back home 24 times.

For comparison, Albert Pujols:

He has been on base 166 times, 20 times at 2B, 23 HR, 0 at 3B, 7 by HBP. He has been on 1B 123 times counting HBP.

The moral of the story: Pujols has had been at 1B more often than Dunn, but not anywhere else more often. Dunn basically has had fewer singles, since Pujols has walked 18 less times, yet has been at 1B more often. As a result, Pujols' OPS is just under .70 ahead of Dunn's. Some might expect it to be higher, but since more of Pujols' hits have caused him to reach only 1B, it isn't, since doubles, triples and HR are deservedly counted as more important in a player's production.

Pujols is considered one of the top couple, if not THE best player in the game by many, so if Dunn can just add a few more hits(singles) (and he could, as he's only 25!), he will be one of the top couple of players in the game. Did I mention that he's still only 25? Remember how long it took Bonds to REALLY take off? I also contend that Dunn could very well have a greater number of singles than he does if he were to be hitting 3rd CONSISTENTLY like Pujols has since he's been with the Cards.

The fact that some want to change Dunn's whole approach just makes NO sense at all. Just let him bat higher in the order and give him a couple more years, and he will be in great shape.

[Cincy]

On another forum, the A's/A's fans seem interested in Dunn.

A's fans seem they would offer a deal of Blanton, Cruz, and young AAA prospect Garcia for Dunn.

I personally might be very temped to make this trade. It makes sense for both teams.

Blanton isn't #1, but he would be a #2-4 starter to us.... he's kind of on the lines of a Harang. Cruz has been terrible in the pen this year, but he was great for Atlanta last year. His #'s this year in AAA as a starter aren't too bad either. Garcia is only 21 or 22 and he would be a good addition to our bullpen in 06'.

[redsrbetter]

Great take CRF!

Ok on the trade. I do not like Blanton enough for this. He is definitely comparable to Harang, but he is nowhere close in the strikeout category.
Blanton- 99 IP/47 K
Harang- 116 IP/109 K

For Dunn, we need a bigger stud than Harang, and Blanton is not that. But lets look at what else is offered. Does it make it sweeter?

Cruz- 23.1 IP / 29 H / 19 BB / 22 ER / 27 K. This guy has pratically given up a hit, a walk, and an earned run every inning pitch. I say no thanks.

Garcia- AAA stats- 5.40 ERA / 26.2 IP / 23 hits / 13 BB / 43 Ks! The man can strike out batters big time, but he still has been shelled at the same time. I would take him as the last guy to grab in a trade.

I don't like this thought at all. We need more for Dunn!

[Providence A's]

On another forum, the A's/A's fans seem interested in Dunn.

A's fans seem they would offer a deal of Blanton, Cruz, and young AAA prospect Garcia for Dunn.

I personally might be very temped to make this trade. It makes sense for both teams.

Blanton isn't #1, but he would be a #2-4 starter to us.... he's kind of on the lines of a Harang. Cruz has been terrible in the pen this year, but he was great for Atlanta last year. His #'s this year in AAA as a starter aren't too bad either. Garcia is only 21 or 22 and he would be a good addition to our bullpen in 06'.

that's interesting and news to me. Blanton was pitcher of the month for June going 5 - 0 with an ERA around 2...Cruz is at AAA now and is doing quite well. I'd like to hang on to Jairo Garcia though...he'll be a good setup guy I think (he's closing games at AAA and closed at AA before being called up).

[Providence A's]

Cruz- 23.1 IP / 29 H / 19 BB / 22 ER / 27 K. This guy has pratically given up a hit, a walk, and an earned run every inning pitch. I say no thanks.

Garcia- AAA stats- 5.40 ERA / 26.2 IP / 23 hits / 13 BB / 43 Ks! The man can strike out batters big time, but he still has been shelled at the same time. I would take him as the last guy to grab in a trade

here are Cruz's AAA stats:

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/a...ilb&pid=407297

And Garcia has had control problems, but he's only 20 I believe, maybe 21...he saw time at the major league level last year and briefly this year.

[Sea Ray]

It doesn't matter how much the Cardinals would pay him. He's not a free agent for another two years. How much the Cardinals think he's worth will never come into the arbitration hearing. The Reds will say he's not even an All Star outfielder. How many non All Stars are making $8mill?

[Sea Ray]

Cruz has had a lot of chances in the major leagues and he's got to be close to being out of options.

A big no way to this deal!!!

[Providence A's]

Cruz has stuff back in order:

Cruz sets Rivercats record with 13 k's

A hard-throwing right-hander, Cruz set the previous club mark on July 3 when he struck out 11 against the Fresno Grizzlies. Assigned by the Athletics to the Pacific Coast League in June, he is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 29 innings. Opponents are hitting just .176 off Cruz.

I don't think we'd trade him as he was part of the infamous Hudson trade and also I don't think we'd be able to really afford Dunn's price when it goes up unless we get a new stadium. We have new ownership that is the 3rd richest in baseball behind the Sox and Yanks...but they aren't going to toss their money around until they can get a new stadium or move the team if needed.